The power of the Irish (FOURTH REICH ALERT)

As the process of expanding the European Union reaches a critical stage, all eyes are on Dublin and The Hague this week. If Irish voters reject the Nice Treaty for a second time on October 19th, the enlargement timetable could be at risk. The collapse of the Dutch government is likely to complicate matters further

CRITICS say it’s a case of the tail wagging the dog. Europe’s small countries certainly have a habit of wrecking carefully prepared plans for European integration. The Danes did it in 1992, when they voted against the Maastricht Treaty. In June last year, it was Ireland’s turn. Irish voters caught the authorities in Dublin and Brussels off-guard when they rejected the Nice Treaty, a crucial part of the arrangements to expand the European Union from 15 to 25 or more members. On October 19th, the same voters get a chance to make amends in a re-run of the referendum—just as the collapse of the Dutch government on October 16th risks giving enlargement sceptics in the Netherlands a starring role.

Every EU member except Ireland has ratified the Nice Treaty. The Irish government has worked hard to try to ensure the vote goes the right way this time. The yes campaigners reckon the omens look good. The latest opinion polls show a clear majority in favour of the treaty—39% compared with 22% against, according to a poll published on October 15th. But the polls last time suggested that the yes campaigners would win, which is why the eventual result, with 54% of those who voted saying no to the treaty, was such a shock.

The vote against was blamed on voter apathy: many of those who might have voted yes didn’t bother to vote, so it was said, because they were confident of the outcome. Apathy is still a risk this week, as is the very large number of voters who remain undecided—around a third of the electorate at the last count. The government is taking nothing for granted, but will surely be hoping that, as in Denmark, Irish voters see the light the second time around.

Irish opponents of the Nice Treaty seem to have two main objections. One is the threat they say it poses to Irish neutrality, partly because of references in the treaty to plans for a European defence force. To assuage these concerns, Brussels has issued a clear statement that Ireland’s neutrality will be unaffected by the treaty’s provisions; Bertie Ahern, the Irish prime minister, has said the treaty is the strongest possible guarantee of this.

The other objection stems from fears that Irish influence in Brussels will be diluted by an enlarged EU. In part, at least, this is code for the fear that some of the EU’s budgetary largesse, which Ireland has enjoyed more than most since it joined in 1973, will be diverted to the much poorer economies of central and eastern Europe. This is not an uncommon worry—in previous enlargement rounds that brought in countries which were poor compared with the EU average, the poorer EU members have fretted that they might lose out financially. Greece, for instance, was slow to endorse Spanish and Portuguese accession in the 1980s. Several Mediterranean countries are apprehensive about the budgetary implications of the current enlargement plans.

The Irish government has backed enlargement and would be extremely embarrassed by another negative referendum result, although Mr Ahern has said he has no plans to resign whatever the outcome. The European Commission has said there is no plan B if the Irish reject Nice for a second time. Behind the scenes, though, it is clear that those in Brussels have been thinking carefully about how to take the enlargement process forward if that were to happen.

Technically, the Nice Treaty is not the only means of admitting the ten applicant countries who expect shortly to get the green light for membership in 2004. Most experts reckon that the treaty’s provisions could be incorporated into each individual Treaty of Accession. That would be cumbersome, though. Another possibility which has been aired is for the Irish parliament to issue a declaration in favour of the Nice Treaty. It would be for the lawyers to decide if this was an acceptable way out.

Whatever solution is eventually found, an Irish no vote would almost certainly derail the accession timetable. The ten countries which make up the first wave of new members were identified in a report by the European Commission published on October 9th. This list is due to be endorsed at a special meeting of EU heads of government in Brussels on October 24th-25th. The formal invitation to the new members will then be issued at the European Council in Copenhagen in December. A lot of work will need to be done between then and the accession date in 2004, even if everything goes smoothly in the Irish referendum. If it doesn’t, postponement seems almost inevitable.

Events in Dublin, though, could yet be overshadowed by the political turmoil in the Hague. The collapse of the Dutch governing coalition, in power only since July, marked the end of the shortest government since the second world war. Fresh elections might not take place till January. EU ministers and officials have been scrambling to insist that this will not impede the enlargement process.

But there is considerable opposition in the Netherlands, not least because of uncertainties, even at this stage, about how enlargement will be financed. The Dutch have, until now, been in the forefront of those campaigning for reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Like others pushing for reform, they were dismayed by the prospect of delay until 2006 or later, thanks to German indulgence of French intransigence.

The Dutch position will not be clear, at best, until a caretaker government is in place; at worst, the enlargement process might have to be put on hold until after the elections. The cumbersome accession process has already tried the patience of those countries, such as Hungary and Poland, which had hoped by now to be in the EU. Many of them have become exasperated by what they see as EU-footdragging. They claim they have worked hard to meet the entry requirements set by Brussels, which include political, economic and judicial reforms. The existing member states have often seemed reluctant to push through the necessary changes on their side, not least reform of the CAP.

Another delay in the enlargement process, for whatever reason, could start to undermine popular enthusiasm for EU membership, already beginning to wane in some applicant countries in any case. Supporters of enlargement will therefore be hoping that Irish voters get the message and vote yes.

I hope the Irish vote no. This nonsense about being forced to vote the "right" way is an affront to democracy. Sod what the little grey bastards in Brussels want. A No vote will tell them who precisely is in charge.

Regards, Ivan

I don't follow the part about the Dutch government collapsing and waiting for new elections there. There was an election a few months back, after Fortyn's assassination, and I thought a new government was formed then. Has that already gone away?

It collapsed. Without Professor Pim to keep the rogue elements in his party in check, it was impossible to keep it together.

It is likely that the Christian Democrats will be returned to power.

Regards, Ivan

""The latest opinion polls show a clear majority in favour of the treaty—39% compared with 22% against, according to a poll published on October 15th.............

............Apathy is still a risk this week, as is the very large number of voters who remain
undecided—around a third of the electorate at the last count. ""

The Economist says about a third of voters remain undecided. Well, perhaps that explains european economies. 39% is just a bit more than a third.

With 39% undecided, there is only one thing for certain. The voters don't like the whole idea of the Nice treaty, but have heard the message that EU knows best.

According to a poll this week, the biggest reasons for voting no are fears about neutrality and a desire to punish the government for their deceipt regarding spending cuts and the fall-out from the Flood Tribunal.

Whatever about the neutrality issue, using a treaty like this to give the finger to the government is ridiculous. People should vote no because they feel the treaty is bad for the country, and nothing else.

Personally, I don't feel that we should be neutral, not in this day and age, so that won't be a reason for me to object.

This country has benefitted hugely from Europe. If the eastern bloc want in, that's their decision. I'm not going to stop them.

Enlargement can already happen under the terms of the Amsterdam treaty. Enlargement isn't the issue here, it's the fact that they are watering down our say in Europe. They are creating a two tiered system.

We won't have a full time Commissioner for crying out loud, and they expect us to accept that?

There is a greater principle at stake here. If you allow them to get away with this, the EU will think it is an acceptable strategy to keep wearing down the electorate with multiple referenda until they get their way. Well, what if the good of the country hinges on saying No?

In this case, the treaty is excessively bureaucratic, enlarges the power of the Commission over internal affairs without increasing the democratic accountability. Just because the EU has bribed you to vote in a particular way should be neither here nor there: don't let them persist in the smug satisfaction of believing the Irish electorate is the best that money can buy.

Regards, Ivan

A YES vote will eventually lead to everyone north and south lamenting and singing the following:

A Nation Once Again

When boyhood's fire was in my blood
I read of ancient freemen
Of Greece and Rome, who bravely stood
Three hundred men and three men
And then I prayed I yet might see
Our fetters rent in twain
And Ireland long a province, be
A nation once again

Chorus
A nation once again
A nation once again
And Ireland long a province, be
A nation once again

So from the time through wildest woe
That hope has shone a far light
Nor could love brightest summer glow
Outshine that solemn starlight
It seemed to watch above my head
In forum, field and fane
It's angle voice rang round my bed
A nation once again

Chorus

So as I grew from boy to man
I bent me to that bidding-
The spirit of each selfish plan
And cruel passions ridding
For thus, I hoped some day to aid-
Oh, can such hope be vain?
When my dear country shall be made
A nation once again

Chorus

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