Posted on 10/13/2002 1:29:23 AM PDT by MadIvan
The European Union's ambitious plan to take in 10 more member countries is hanging on the verdict of voters from Ballinskellig to Dundalk, as Ireland prepares for its second referendum on the Nice Treaty on enlargement next weekend.
The latest opinion poll, published today by the Irish Sunday Independent, gives the Yes campaign a solid majority with 41 per cent in favour and 27 per cent against.
The large number of undecided voters - 24 per cent - gives hope, however, to the treaty's opponents and leaves Yes campaigners nervous. Two weeks before the first referendum in June 2001, opinion polls gave the Yes campaign an even wider margin of victory than today's poll, but the predictions were undone by the derisory 34 per cent turnout.
The treaty, which reorganises the EU to permit more members to join, cannot take effect until all existing members have ratified it, as all except Ireland now have.
Unlike other EU countries, including Britain, Ireland's constitution requires that any change in sovereignty be decided by the people in a referendum, rather than by parliament alone.
Under the Nice Treaty, 10 countries, including Poland, Hungary and Latvia, have been cleared for membership as the Union seeks to embrace the former Communist states of Eastern Europe.
The treaty provides for limiting the number of EU commissioners to 20, readjusting the number of MEPs to allow for expansion and reducing the subjects over which individual countries retain the right to exercise the national veto.
Irish voters sent shockwaves through Europe in June last year when they rejected the Nice Treaty by 54 per cent to 46 per cent - and thereby threatened to bring the enlargement process to a halt and plunge the EU into a constitutional crisis.
To salvage the planned expansion and save the face of Bertie Ahern, the Dublin prime minister, the rest of the EU and the Irish government decided that Nice must stay on course, and that Ireland would be asked to vote again.
And here, friends, is what is most objectionable. In a free and fair referendum, the Irish people voted No to this excessively bureaucratic treaty. Brussels and Ahern are conspiring to force it down the Irish people's throats until they get the "right" answer. Despicable. - Ivan
If Ireland rejects Nice for a second time, it will cause chaos for the candidate countries to which the European Commission gave the green light for membership last week. Romano Prodi, the commission's president, says that there is no contingency plan if there is a No majority.
Just so you're up on your rogues' gallery - Prodi is the same fellow who was so dismissive about Britain and America's special relationship. He keeps on trying to tell us that our future is with him. Each time he says it, I keep on wondering about riots in the streets if he keeps on being so insufferable. - Ivan
Instead, the treaty will have to be abandoned, renegotiated, or - more likely - put on hold until a new one can be negotiated, in 2004 at the earliest.
To encourage voting, Mr Ahern chose to hold the poll on a Saturday - a first in Ireland, which is accustomed to mid-week voting - and approved an advertising campaign that has included images of Nelson Mandela leaving Robben Island.
Outrageous. Despicable. Disgusting. Bertie, it's time for you to go, and with God's grace, the people of Ireland are about to show you the door - Ivan
The message is supposed to encourage the electorate to get out and vote because people in other parts of the world have died in pursuit of democracy.
The referendum has all the trappings of a general election, with posters stuck to every city lamppost and daily debates on national radio, but has failed to grab the public's imagination. It is widely expected that the turnout will be less than 50 per cent.
In the poster wars, the Yes campaign is this year's clear winner - not surprisingly, since it has four times more funding than the No side. During last year's referendum, the countryside was plastered with No posters.
In an attempt to assuage voters' concerns that the Nice Treaty could pave the way for a European army, thus threatening Ireland's neutrality, the Dublin government has inserted a clause requiring a further referendum before such a step can be taken.
The changes, however, are at the margins: in essence the Irish people are being asked to vote for a second time because they gave the wrong answer the first time. The new campaign, led by Mr Ahern, has been more vigorous, but has been diverted by a series of domestic crises that may influence the result.
The Irish economy, which had enjoyed eight years of exceptional growth, has ground to a halt. Tumbling tax revenues and spiralling government spending have thrown the nation's finances into disarray and made a mockery of the government's election promises.
A judicial tribunal declared two weeks ago that Ray Burke, once one of Mr Ahern's closest political allies, was corrupt. The report reflected badly on Mr Ahern because he appointed Mr Burke as foreign affairs minister in 1997 despite knowing of the corruption rumours.
With devolution in Northern Ireland unravelling at an alarming pace, Mr Ahern has been fire-fighting on three fronts instead of focusing on the Nice Treaty.
With his judgment and credibility under constant attack and his personal popularity on the slide, losing the referendum would be the catalyst for a backbench revolt against his leadership of Fianna Fail.
The Nice debate has divided Irish politics into two distinct and unequal camps. Ranged on the Yes side is the full weight of the political establishment: all four main political parties, employers groups, trade unions and the Irish media. Ranged against the establishment is a motley collection of protest parties, led by Sinn Fein and the Greens.
The message from the Yes campaign is straight-forward: Ireland has a moral obligation to pass the treaty because it has benefited so much from EU membership. An underlying threat is also present: a No vote would isolate Ireland within Europe, deter investment and destroy jobs.
The No campaign is much more disparate: Sinn Fein, whose popularity in the republic continues to grow as it carves out a niche on the extreme Left, gives warning of the threat to neutrality and of Europe's "democratic deficit"; the Green Party talks of a two-tier Europe that will discriminate against smaller countries; and far-Right groups predict mass immigration once the newer, and poorer, member states are allowed to join.
Irish voters admit that they are still puzzled by what they are being asked to decide, with just 16 per cent claiming a full understanding of the treaty in a recent poll.
Seriously, this is a bad treaty. And what is most despicable is the arm twisting that is being done to the Irish electorate in order to get a "right" answer. Again, I hope everyone will join me in encouraging the Irish people to stand up for themselves by voting "No".
Regards, Ivan
That indicates panic on their part. In any event, darling, they are overplaying their hand. They are threatening to turn this referendum into an issue of whether or not Ireland is a sovereign nation by making statements like that. And indeed it is now down to whether or not Ireland is free to determine its own direction.
I would hope this case is being forcefully made by someone. My feeling is that Sinn Fein and the Greens are not up to the task.
Love, Ivan
In any event, I believe the Celtic Gleam of Rebellion is going to come and save the day. ;)
Love, Ivan
What a concept! Government by the people! Why didn't we think of that? In the US, we let unelected judges give away our sovereignty!
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