Posted on 10/09/2002 4:33:15 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
Pakistan and China Seek Advanced Missiles
Rivals Pakistan and India have launched a new series of missile tests, increasing the threat of war between the two nuclear-armed South Asian neighbors.
India said it conducted two tests last week of its short-range "Akash" surface-to-air missile without fanfare. Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes defended the missile tests, blaming China for the growing tension between India and Pakistan.
"China is not only economically stronger, but has conducted nuclear tests much before us. They are also well armed. Pakistan's arrogance is because of China's backing," stated Fernandes.
"To tackle the situation today we must have the same strength that our neighbors have," noted Fernandes, referring to the military might of China.
Both India and Pakistan have over 1 million soldiers deployed along their tense border and each nation is armed with dozens of nuclear-tipped missiles. The Asian nations have fought two major wars and are currently locked in a dispute over the contested Kashmir region.
Pakistan and China Improve Missiles
In early October, Pakistan reported that it conducted two tests of its improved "Shaheen" medium-range ballistic missile. The Shaheen is widely known to be a copy of the Chinese made M-11 (Dong Feng 11) surface-to-surface missile.
During the 1990s, China exported M-11 missiles and ballistic missile technology to Pakistan. The new missile test prove that Chinese and Pakistani missile engineers have improved the M-11 missile from its original 186-mile range to a range of over 500 miles.
"The 'Shaheen-I' – also known as the 'Hatf-3' – is one of three defined variants of Pakistan's 'Shaheen' class of rockets," stated Ilan Berman, Vice President for Policy at the American Foreign Policy Council.
"Conservative estimates place the range of the missile, which is a copy of the Chinese 'M-11,' at approximately 300 kilometers. However, unofficial reports dating back to 1999 have cited the missile – which is the subject of continued intensive development by Pakistan – as having an expanded range of 800 kilometers," noted Berman.
"Multiple news reports from the most recent Oct. 5 test of the 'Shaheen' list the missile as having an 800-kilometer range. If true, this news is confirmation that Pakistan – with help from both North Korea and China – is substantially expanding the range of its missile arsenal," said Berman.
"With Chinese assistance, Pakistan is making significant strides in its ballistic missile programs. Projects like the 'Shaheen' medium-range missile – modeled after PRC weaponry – are expanding the threat posed by Pakistan to India, its neighbor and regional rival. This is significant, because it is likely to spark growing instability in South Asia as New Delhi moves to counter the growing threat posed by Islamabad's missile arsenal," concluded Berman.
Russia Accuses China of Sending Missiles to Pakistan
Russian sources also accused Beijing of helping Pakistan's missile program. According to ITAR/TASS, Moscow's main government information agency, a Russian missile expert stated that China is directly responsible for the rapid Pakistani missile development.
"Islamabad is trying to persuade the world that Ghauri and Shaheen are national designs, yet there is information that nearly all missile systems of Pakistan are precise copies of North Korean and Chinese analogues," states the Russian report.
"Despite the official statements of Pakistan that it is not developing intercontinental missiles, some of Pakistan's leading scientists have confirmed the readiness of the national defense industry to start the production of such weapons as need be," noted a Russian missile expert quoted by the ITAR/TASS news agency.
"The Friday test launch of a ballistic missile in Pakistan shows that South Asia remains the most dangerous area from the point of view of a possible nuclear conflict," noted the Russian report.
Bush Sanctions and Clinton Waivers
The Bush administration has taken steps against Chinese missile proliferation in Asia. In 2001, the Bush administration lodged sanctions against the China Metallurgical Equipment Corp. after it continued to ship missile parts to Pakistan, violating Beijing's sixth promise to stop such exports. According to documents provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the People's Liberation Army owns China Metallurgical.
In 2002, the National Intelligence Estimate, a threat analysis published by the CIA, noted that Beijing has "enabled emerging missile states to accelerate development timelines for their existing programs" and sold "turnkey systems to gain previously non-existent capabilities – in the case of the Chinese sale of the M-11 short-range ballistic missile to Pakistan."
In contrast to the current administration, President Clinton imposed sanctions against China for the missile transfers to Pakistan for only four months. Instead, according to documents obtained by the Freedom of Information Act, the Clinton administration decided to relax export controls on space technology, enabling U.S. companies such as Loral and Hughes to obtain satellite contracts with China.
"Last August (1993), the U.S. imposed sanctions on China for an M-11 missile-related transfer to Pakistan. On January 7, 1994 it was decided that although communications satellites licensed by the State Department are covered by the sanctions law, export licenses for communications satellites licensed by the Department of Commerce may be approved. Two such export licenses for communications satellites were recently approved by the Department of Commerce."
The news that China and Pakistan have improved the M-11 missile has had a direct impact on Beijing's conflict with Taiwan. The Chinese People's Liberation Army Second Artillery Corps is known to have as many as 400 M-11 type missiles deployed across from Taiwan. The improved version of the M-11 could threaten any U.S. efforts to re-enforce Taiwan during a crisis and the missile could be targeted far beyond Taiwan to attack U.S. aircraft carriers.
Chinese Nuclear Missile Tests
The news that Beijing and Islamabad have improved the M-11 missile comes directly after China announced that it would conduct lives tests of the Dong Feng 31 (DF-31) missiles in the next few weeks. Unlike the M-11, the DF-31 missile is capable of reaching the United States and has a range of over 7,000 miles. The DF-31 is armed with advanced, lightweight, Hydrogen bomb technology stolen from U.S. nuclear weapons labs.
In addition, the announced DF-31 missile tests come on the heels of several missile launches by Beijing in late August. On August 28, the Chinese Army conducted a successful launch of its Dong Feng 4 (DF-4) missile from a site in southern China. The DF-4 is known to carry a large H-bomb warhead over 4,000 miles.
The DF-4 missile currently equips two units of the Chinese Second Artillery Corps, unit 80305 and unit 80306. The 80305 unit is based in Huaihau, Hunan province, with its DF-4 missiles aimed at the U.S. military base in Guam. The 80306 unit is based in Xining, Qinghai province, and its missiles are aimed at targets inside India.
China Buys More Sunburn Missiles
In addition, China has cut a multi-million dollar weapons deal with Russia to purchase more SS-N-22 Sunburn cruise missiles. The SS-N-22 Sunburn is considered "the most lethal anti-ship missile in the world" and the number one threat to U.S. Navy aircraft carriers.
According to Arsenjev Aviation Company in Russia, China has agreed to arm two more Sovremenny destroyer warships with the deadly Sunburn missile. Arsenjev has reportedly already begun the process of preparing the missiles for China.
In 1996, China purchased the Russian Sovremenny class destroyer Yekaterinburg and second warship, the Alexandr Nevskiy. China took possession of the Yekaterinburg in November 1999 and the Alexandr Nevskiy in January 2001. Each Chinese warship is armed with eight nuclear tipped Sunburn missiles. In early 2002, China agreed to purchase two more Sovermenny warships from Russia.
Ironically, the Clinton/Gore administration turned down a Russian offer to buy all of its SS-N-22 Sunburn supersonic cruise missiles in 1995, blocking Beijing attempts to purchase the deadly cruise missile.
The U.S. effort, code-named project "Ballerina", used American business contacts inside Moscow to buy Sunburn missiles directly from the Russian Navy. A 1995 status report prepared for the Navy, states that U.S. defense contractor Vector Microwave had "reached a basic agreement with the Russian manufacturer of the SS-N-22 (Arsenjev Aviation Company 'Progress') on the concept of acquiring the SS-N-22 missiles as targets."
According to a signed letter of intent, the 1995 Sunburn purchase offer included 100 conventional missiles drawn directly from the Russian Navy inventory with an option to purchase the entire remaining Russian inventory. Russia offered to sell the Sunburn missiles to the U.S. Navy, including "active" warheads and the critical electronics such as the "radar seeker" and "radio altimeter."
In September 1995, U.S. Navy Principal Deputy Vice Admiral W.C. Bowes provided the letter of "bona fides" to Admiral Felix Gromov, Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy. Bowes advised the Russian Navy that America intended to purchase the Sunburn supersonic cruise missiles.
"I appreciate the opportunity to convey to you the United States Navy's interest in acquiring all variants of the SS-N-22 'Sunburn' Anti-Ship Supersonic Ship-to-ship missile for test and evaluation," wrote U.S. Admiral Bowes to Gromov in a September 1995 letter.
Amazingly, the U.S turned down the Russian Sunburn offer. The Defense Department run by then Secretary William Perry balked at the Sunburn price of nearly "a million dollars" per missile. Without the 1995 U.S. Navy sale, the hard-pressed Russian contractor instead cut a deal with Beijing twelve months later, agreeing to supply the inventory of Sunburn missiles to China.
Official Navy documentation notes that the Sunburn missiles are armed with a "nuclear" warhead equal to over 200,000 tons of TNT. In July 1999, defense analyst Richard D. Fisher wrote an evaluation of the Sunburn. Fisher reported that the Sunburn is capable of a dive speed of nearly 3000 miles an hour, helping it evade U.S. naval defenses.
"The Sunburn anti-ship missile is perhaps the most lethal anti-ship missile in the world," wrote Fisher in a review of the Chinese Navy.
"The Sunburn combines a Mach 2.5 speed with a very low-level flight pattern that uses violent end maneuvers to throw off defenses. After detecting the Sunburn, the U.S. Navy Phalanx point defense system may have only 2.5 seconds to calculate a fire solution – not enough time before the devastating impact of a 750 lb. warhead."
PRC President to Visit D.C.
Chinese President Jiang Zemin is scheduled to visit Washington in early November 2002. The Chinese missile proliferation to Pakistan, the Sunburn purchases and the upcoming long-range missile tests are certain to come up during discussions between President Zemin and President Bush.
Clearly, something must be done to curb or counter China's efforts to spur an Asian arms race with nuclear tipped missiles. Nations such as Pakistan and China are advancing their offensive missiles with an eye toward American targets. The Chinese proliferation is aimed at improving missiles inside Syria, Libya, Iran and Iraq.
The choice to stop a war in Asia is clear. If China is not willing to curtail its proliferation then the Bush administration must approve the sale of the U.S. missile defense technology to India, including the proposed sale of the Israeli Arrow anti-missile system.
Finally, the United States must act now to develop and deploy an anti-missile system designed to protect the U.S. homeland before the next blow falls upon a U.S. city.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.