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To: belmont_mark; Askel5
PING!
11 posted on 10/08/2002 4:52:25 PM PDT by Orion78
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To: Orion78; Jeff Head; tallhappy; AmericanInTokyo; JanL; EditorTFP
And while most (all?) scenario planners focus firstly on PRC aggression against Taiwan (which is good, the threat is indeed real) and secondly on aggressions Northeastward towards S. Korea and Japan (again a plausible threat), as far as I can tell from substantial review of large bodies of literature, "scholarly journals" have not explicitly considered the following. (Well, at least no one has done it and issued anything that is not classified!)

Given the significant infrastructure development (bridges, roads, runway extensions, ports, radars, SRBM bases, ELINT, etc) in Myanmar, aided in no small part by the PRC and Pakistan, and, given a lesser version of this in Laos, combined with increasing interconnection of the PRC and Thai superhighway systems via the Golden Triangle, an amazingly simple and potent possibility exists. One that is pure Hitler. It would indeed be possible, for example, for the PRC to secretly increase numbers of troops in Myanmar and Laos. They might even sneak in tanks and TELs containing DF15s and DF21s with nuclear warheads. Or, alternatively, they might stage the tanks and TELs just north of the Golden Triangle, in Yunnan Pvnc. On the heels of a surprise air strike, done by bombers (perhaps PLAAF, perhaps Pakistani AF) using newly extended runways in Myanmar, a general invasion of Thailand might proceed. Within the mass of this invasion, the TELs might be moved into the heart of Thailand (it would take about one day to do this). As the West would reel from all of this, and possibly, sit overwhelmed by other "events" going on simultaneously in NE Europe, SE Europe, Latin America, Africa, S. Asia and Korea, perhaps some of the nuclear weapons in the TELs might be launched to strike US and allied bases in the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean. Extended range DF21s, or perhaps missiles we don't yet know about, might even be able to reach our forces in Afghanistan and Oman. Perhaps after such an attack, the PRC might threaten to, with cover by Russian ICBMs essentially promised by the Treaty of Mutual Friendship of 7/16/2001, the West with a massive barrage in case we were to attempt to intervene or attack SE Asia. And naturally, how could we undertake counterforce strikes against TELs constantly moving around in an overtaken allied country? And of course, there would always be that doubt about whose missiles were launched from Thailand, just enough of a doubt to make us hesitate to do a countervalue strike against... well who? the PRC? Pakistan? Russia? Who indeed!

Folks, this is how the game is played. Are you ready?

20 posted on 10/11/2002 8:10:04 PM PDT by GOP_1900AD
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