Replies

Chipping away at GraYouT

Latest SurveyUSA Poll California... 576 (Only slightly stewed) voters - ;-)

davi$ 44

SiMon 37

CameJo 8

Copeland 3

Undecided 6

Camejo 8 ? :-o

GO SIMON

Only adds up to 98... hmm.

I got lucky and just finished watching the debate on Cspan 11. I think Davis stumbled many times...no wonder he does't want to debate. The panel seemed a little hostile.

When was this poll taken - I would assume before the debates?

The Davis lead has narrowed by a point from the previous SurveyUSA poll. If I were him, I'd be most worried by Camejo's doubling between this poll and the last we've seen. If any more of his supporters drift in that direction, he's in big, big trouble.

If my memory serves, we have some interesting movements here:

Davis has picked up about 3% from the undecideds, since if my memory serves his old number was 41%.

Simon has picked up about 6% from his previous 31%. Looks like the new ads are having some effect, as well as the continuing recovery from the fraud charge's impact.

The real story, though, is Camejo, whose vote has doubled! That's fantastic news for us, and I don't think he's done yet. If he can pick off a couple more points from Davis, this race could very quickly become a statistical dead heat.

So it's time for some statistical game playing. We've had 3+6+4 change from previous undecideds. We have 6% left. If that 6% was divided in the same way the undecideds are going, Davis would have 45.8% and Simon 39.76.

So if present trends continue, we're 6% behind. My personal opinion is that differential turnout should give us at least a 5% advantage, because outside of organized labor, Davis' base does not like the man. So at this point, we are very, very close.

We are definitely living in interesting times!

D