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To: JasonC
Perhaps this will help:

LTNP

Best Regards,

Good Night All
38 posted on 10/06/2002 9:56:33 PM PDT by Neuromancer
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To: Neuromancer
Helps, but not answers. One, the large SF study says 5% for its non-progressor definition not 1-2%, but also says 21% of HIV+ will not have developed AIDs 15 years after infection. That is distinctly higher than your 1-2%. Which I suspect is more like the ratio of non-progressors to all HIV positives. It is also for only one population, which may be typical or may not be.

Two, the definitions are all over the map - some 6 years, most 7, the SF study 10 years. Some specify no anti-virals for the non-progressor definition, without saying whether the comparison groups are or aren't also no anti-viral classes. One study finds strong evidence that strains of HIV exist that do not cause disease, probably as a special case but also a monkey wrench thrown into non-progessor statistics.

Most of the rest of the studies there manage to show that defined non progressors really are healthier, not just taking longer, which is a rather limited statement that should surprise no one (since they are selected-defined as HIV+ for long periods with good blood scores and no AIDs).

Obviously, the studies are primarily designed to address guesses about how it is working or what subsystem is involved. They are not primarily directed at mapping the epidemology (how many go from this to that category in this or that long, etc). The result is less than a clear picture, but certainly I see nothing so far to support the "1-2%, corrected for everything" figure.

44 posted on 10/06/2002 11:09:54 PM PDT by JasonC
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