To: Hail Caesar
This FBI disinformation seems to be assuming multiple fictoids for which there is no apparent basis for believing:
(1) it was a random/spontaneous crime
(2) exactly or no more than 2 people were involved
(the model they seem to be promoting is 1 driver, 1 shooter)
(3) ethnicity/gender of the shooters (white male - the old gun nut fictoid and standard liberal demon)
(4) suggestions that the shooting was done from a vehicle, probably the famous white box truck
(5) one shooter (in several of the cases there appears to have be ballistic evidence of one gun; that doesn't mean one shooter).
There is no known basis for concluding any of the above. On the other hand, here are some things which there is some basis for considering:
(1) Similarity to other crimes. Has there ever been one quite like this? I don't know of one.
(2) Prior planning. There had to be some, if only to pick out shooter positions for long-range shots in a populated area. These couldn't have been impulse killings. They also do not give any indication of being rage killings.
(3) Strategy. There appears to have been one, at least with one shot, one kill, move on, avoid being caught. The shooter team wasn't wandering around babbling at the crime scenes. They were apparently out of there in any identifiable way after the one shot, suggesting tactical discipline. Possibly there have also been aborted attempts and misses. They also seemed to know where to go fast to find more targets, suggesting earlier planning.
(4) Attributes of the victims. These were not completely random and show some indication of target selection and therefore a tactical plan. The victims were all the easiest possible "grazing deer" type targets for a sniper: close to streets and relatively stationary in one place, either sitting, standing, or occupied with some task. This suggests that the shooter/s wanted to - and knew how to - ensure sure one-shot hits and kills. No walkers, joggers, or frisbee players appear to have been hit, nor was anyone actually in a vehicle, though some were close. (Maybe if you live in that area you should avoid things like standing on the street waiting for a bus or trimming the grass around your mailbox. ) For whatever reason, several visible and potentially vulnerable population groups were not hit: e.g. children and uniformed people and there is no indication they were shooting into crowds. The people who were hit were generally working and shopping civilian adults.
(5) Coherent operations. These guys were/are very, very "good". By their very stealthiness, the shooter team indicates a high degree of professionalism. These aren't bozos. They know how to shoot, they apparently know the roads and spots in the area, they know that multiple jurisdictions create confusion and they know how to avoid leaving evidence or being conspicuous (not an attribute of nuts on a crusade) or even seen hanging around. A possible exception to this is the oddly conspicuous and now famous white box truck, which may have been a diversion.
Bottom line: I would be inclined to think someone with resources, support, infrastructure (e.g. with safe houses and escape routes out of the locality and country), and an agenda is behind this. The angry white-male gun-toting nut idea already doesn't fit what is known about it. So it could well be a terrorist probe. They would have found out how a multiple-jurisdiction area responds, how long it takes to come up on the scope as an attack (too long), what the police can do about it (zip), how the populace responds (people don't feel safe in places where they used to), and how the news media treats it (delays in alerting the country or putting it on national news).
116 posted on
10/05/2002 2:01:38 PM PDT by
pttttt
To: pttttt
EXCELLENT ANALYSIS! You must have read my mind. :-)
To: pttttt
...however...the emasculated "angry white male" profile - professional shooter or not - still tops the "A" list of probable suspects in this case, IMHO.
To: pttttt
"I would be inclined to think someone with resources, support, infrastructure (e.g. with safe houses and escape routes out of the locality and country), and an agenda is behind this. The angry white-male gun-toting nut idea already doesn't fit what is known about it. So it could well be a terrorist probe."
I agree.
Regardless of whether this is the work of psychopaths, domestic or even foreign terrorists, they have been effective in reaping both physical and psychological "terror" on this community. The sooner we catch and convict these bastards, the better.
To: pttttt; Hail Caesar
All but one of the shootings took place in/near a predominantly Jewish neighborhood or on a Jewish owned business, or a business like the Shell station which is popularly believed in Islamofascist mystical circles to be Jewish owned or controlled.
That includes the shooting today at Benjamin Tasker. Although it's on MD 197, there is a Conservative congregation very near and folks walk to Friday prayer. As a consequence they live near the place of worship.
If you fellows missed my posts earlier, note that "Michaels" does business as "Aarons" in the Midwest and Texas.
Notice I said "all but one". The cabdriver had lived here 30 years. His funeral service was conducted at the SDA church he attended. No doubt the shooter, if an AlQaida "sleeper", works as a cab driver and recognized the man pumping gas at the Mobile station and realized he could identify him. One of the professional profilers said that when these mass killings takes place at least one of the victims will have been somebody who was a witness.
This shooter probably takes people from this area out to Baltimore-Washington International (BWI) regularly. Folks in Federicksburg (where the other "Michaels" was located, regularly take cabs from MD up to BWI on route 301!
301 runs through this area.
The shooter lives in the area, or does most of his cab driving in that area of MD.
The white "box truck", was most likely a misidentified 2.5 ton or 3.0 ton USPS truck then in the area taking mail to a delivery unit. Since this vehicle was seen only one time, it should not be heavily weighted in the profile.
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