A lot of people leaving tomorrow morning. Hotels all the way to Houston, Dallas, and up to Arkansas are all booked. We are riding it out!
Posted on 10/01/2002 7:34:18 PM PDT by Conservababe
I am wondering why no postings of Hurricane Lily from our fellow Freeper weather gurus. I just received two calls from my family in south Louisiana who were headed to the grocery to stock up on essentials. My brother and brother-in-law have been called in from off shore rigs.
A lot of people leaving tomorrow morning. Hotels all the way to Houston, Dallas, and up to Arkansas are all booked. We are riding it out!
Lili continues to get better organized based on satellite imagery and Air Force reserve reconnaissance data. Lili appears to have just completed an eyewall replacement cycle based on the last 2 recon passes through the center. Satellite imagery also indicates the eye has cleared out and become better defined with the eye temperature increasing from -55c to -9c just during the past 2 hours. The previous intensity of 90 kt is maintained for this advisory based on dropsonde winds of 101 kt over a deep layer between 963 mb and 850 mb...completion of the eyewall replacement cycle...and Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 102 kt...or t5.5...from TAFB and AFWA. Wind radii were also increased based on 00z surface reports and meticulous analyses from the aoml/hurricane research division.
The initial motion is now 300/13. The last 4 recon fixes indicate Lili has shifted just a little to the left of the previous forecast track. All of the NHC model guidance has also made a similar shift to the left or west of the previous track through 24 hours...and then shifts to the right of track from 36 to 72 hours. This consensus was followed and the official track just simply rounds out the turn to the north around the subtropical ridge after 36 hours. This scenario is quite reasonable given the approaching deep mid- to upper-level trough that is currently shifting eastward over the intermountain region of the western United States. The NHC model guidance remains very tightly packed and strongly agree on a landfall over south central or southwest Louisiana in about 42 hours. Of course... just a slight wobble to the west would bring the center of Lili closer to the Houston-Galveston area...and a wobble to the east would take the powerful hurricane closer to the New Orleans area.
The outflow pattern continues to expand and improve...while the inner core convection and the eye continue to become better defined. Lili already has the appearance of a major hurricane and now that the eyewall has decreased from 35 nmi down to 17 nmi... some significant deepening is likely to begin shortly and continue for another 12 to 24 hours. It is possible and even probable that Lili could rapidly intensify and peak at around 110 kt between the 12 and 24 hours time periods...and then weaken slightly after that. This intensity scenario will be closely assessed on the next advisory. Unfortunately...it looks like Lili will be a major hurricane when it makes landfall.
Forecaster Stewart
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