Monday, 9/30/, Market WrapUp (Instead of bailing out of stocks...investors have held on)

Financial Sense Online ^ | 9/30/2002 | James J. Puplava

[rohry]

"Instead of bailing out of stocks after two negative years, investors have held on. I can’t remember anything like this in my 23 years in the business. I met with a couple today that had a million dollar investment portfolio over four years ago. They are now down to around $250,000 if the equity of their rental is included. They went from tech and Internet stocks to junk bonds. They are now ready to say uncle."

[Mo1]

WIPE THE SMILE OFF OF THIS MAN'S FACE.

VOTE THE RATS OUT!!

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[rohry]

Market WrapUp is delivered...

[thatsnotnice]

I met with a couple today that had a million dollar investment portfolio over four years ago. They are now down to around $250,000 if the equity of their rental is included. They went from tech and Internet stocks to junk bonds. They are now ready to say uncle."

What are they going to do with their 250K when they say uncle? That's the problem...

The bulk of my portfolio went from $71-ish/shr three years ago to $61 and change today... that's when they went public though; my cost basis is around $9-ish... It's decreased but not a disaster, and I can't think of a thing to invest in that I'm not already in...

[eastsider]

This month is the end of the fiscal year for most mutual funds so you are going to see a lot of volatility as mutual funds take their losses and dress up their portfolios.

I assume that by "this month," Jim means September. Over what period of time can we expect the mutual funds to be volatile -- the month of October?

We could end up getting another relief rally that will have legs as central banks and governments pull out all stops in an effort to avoid asset deflation. It will be a real opportunity to ride the wave of a temporary pause in a developing series of storms.

Over the weekend, I was looking at the last rally opportunity. It seems to have taken place for one month, from the last week of July through the first three weeks of August. It seems to me that this coincides with the end of the reporting period (June), and before warnings came for the next reporting period (September). If so, and barring geopolitical turbulence, I'm guessing that the next rally opportunity will probably be the the month beginning the third week of October through the first three weeks of November. Any thoughts?

[jdege]

I'm not retiring for 20 years or more.

My confidence that the stocks I buy today will be worth considerably more then than they are now is near certainty.

Or rather, if our economy is such shape that stock prices have not increased considerably within the next twenty years, things are going to be so screwed up that financial investments are going to be the last thing we're worried about.

[arete]

My confidence that the stocks I buy today

Wouldn't it make a lot more sense to wait for the bear to be over before investing for your retirement?

Richard W.

[rohry]

"If so, and barring geopolitical turbulence, I'm guessing that the next rally opportunity will probably be the the month beginning the third week of October through the first three weeks of November. Any thoughts?"

I think that the "next rally opportunity" will be in the 3rd week of October, before people realize that the 4th quarter will not see an earnings increase for major corporations.

I'm not playing this game however, there are too many "big boys" playing in the market right now...

[Valpal1]

Wal-Mart warned the Street that its sales for September would be less than anticipated.

European stocks tumbled as the Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index ended its worst quarter since 1987 with the biggest one-day percentage slide in 2 1/2 months. Axa and ING Groep tumbled after Scor, a French reinsurer, became the latest insurer to ask shareholders for cash. Ericsson, the world's largest maker of cellular networks, slumped after cutting its third-quarter sales forecast. The Stoxx 50 Index sank 5.2% to 2314.96. The index has fallen 24% this quarter. All eight major European markets were down during today’s trading.

Asian stocks fell as reports in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan indicated a slump in U.S. demand is slowing regional economies and reducing sales at Sony Corp., Samsung Electronics Co. and other exporters. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 1.5%, extending its decline in the past three months to 12%, the worst quarterly drop in a year.

Hey, I have been on a Buy American diet since 9/11. Every Eurowhimper and Asianwhine about American Hegemony and Cowboy Unilaterlism just reinforces my determination. I like to think it's working!

[rohry]

"I'm not retiring for 20 years or more.

My confidence that the stocks I buy today will be worth considerably more then than they are now is near certainty."

Have you looked at a chart of the market from 1929 to 1949, or 1966 to 1992? The market does not always go up. Sideways is not a good thing, Down is not a good thing, either...

[Dog Gone]

I'm pretty sure there will be a solid kickbutt rally after we defeat Saddam. The expectation will be that oil prices will be low and a feeling of euphoria will exist.

I don't know whether that will be a lasting rally, but it will definitely occur.

I think we may be closer to the bottom than a lot of people realize. Within 1000 points or so.

[rohry]

"I'm pretty sure there will be a solid kickbutt rally after we defeat Saddam."

Boy, I wish that I owned some stock to sell to you...Unfortunately, I sold it all in January 2000... Maybe some other Freeper will sell their stocks to you?

[meyer]

And I thank you. If it goes much lower, we'll have to call it a "wrap-down".

Sorry...

[Dog Gone]

Did I say I was buying today? Let me go check what I said exactly...

[j271]

Thanks.

[rohry]

"Did I say I was buying today?"

Nope, but I won't be buying stocks for many years. I am surprised that ANYONE would believe that stocks are going to go up in the long term...

Good luck to you...

[DarkWaters]

West Coast ports shut down

If this continues for any length of time, this will have a good deal of impact.

[Dog Gone]

If stocks don't go up in the long term, then we're going to look more like North Korea or Russia than the America we know today.

I don't think that's too likely in the long term, and I'm rather suprised you do.

[rohry]

"If stocks don't go up in the long term, then we're going to look more like North Korea or Russia than the America we know today. I don't think that's too likely in the long term, and I'm rather suprised you do."

What a ridiculous statement. The stock market does not determine whether we become like North Korea or Russia.

Also, I've never had a conversation with you. Why do you think that I'm for a long term stock market decline?

[tabsternager]

America has experienced secular bear markets before and it appears that we are in one now. The other secular bear markets lasted many years, and I can't see why this one would prove to be any different than the others.