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Intel's Huge Bet Turns Iffy
ny times ^ | 9 29 2002 | JOHN MARKOFF and STEVE LOHR

Posted on 09/29/2002 7:15:38 AM PDT by dennisw

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1 posted on 09/29/2002 7:15:38 AM PDT by dennisw
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To: dennisw

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2 posted on 09/29/2002 7:19:38 AM PDT by terilyn
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To: dennisw
Dr. Schmidt told the audience, that what...is not speed but power — low power, because data centers can consume as much electricity as a city.

If power efficiency does indeed trump processing speed, everything that Intel and Hewlett-Packard have done ....could now be a handicap. The chip ...is not even a contender in the Google universe. "We're incredibly, incredibly power sensitive..." Dr. Schmidt said.

Another example of what happens when the guys who think they are smarter than everyone else forget about the whole system. Every top end computer users struggle with bills for electricity and construction costs for buildings and cooling.

3 posted on 09/29/2002 7:32:01 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: AndyJackson
Thats what these corporate weenies get for ignoring AMD.
4 posted on 09/29/2002 7:44:15 AM PDT by paul544
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To: dennisw
AMD's success is another example how competition in the market spurs new product development. The upstart AMD produces CPU chips in many ways superior to rival Intel at considerably less cost. I am writing this on an AMD powered computer whose CPU cost close to $100 less than a equivilant Intel product.

Unfortunately, only a few of the major computer makers currentl y offer an AMD option. However smaller makers and us geeks who custom build our systems have known for years that AMD gives better performance at a cheaper price.

5 posted on 09/29/2002 8:13:03 AM PDT by The Great RJ
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To: dennisw
"Every big computing disaster has come from taking too many ideas and putting them in one place, and the Itanium is exactly that," said Gordon Bell, a veteran computer designer and a Microsoft researcher.

This is the problem. The Itanium is too much of a radical change. Assembly language is a mess and standard compiler optimizations don't work well with the chip. None of this would matter if the chip was blazingly fast. Unfortunately, the bet on VLIW itself failed! VLIW doesn't provide the boost over x86 that was expected. Combine that with the physical complexity of the chip, which limits clock speed, and you have a disaster.

Intel has done this before. Some old-timers out there might remember the Intel i860. It was supposed to be the great break from x86. It flopped.

Bonus question: how is the i860 related to the name "Windows NT"?

6 posted on 09/29/2002 8:15:07 AM PDT by mikegi
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To: mikegi
Sales of computers is down in Europe because customers and business users are happy with "good enough" computing.

Delaying or cancelling new systems....could be the starty of a trend if the industry stays at 2002 levels

7 posted on 09/29/2002 9:02:45 AM PDT by spokeshave
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To: dennisw
If Gordan Bell is sounding an alarm you can bet this is a dog.

The business climate will not allow the company to present a dog as a winner with endless prop ups and supports.

Back to the drawing board Intel!
8 posted on 09/29/2002 9:10:53 AM PDT by Pylot
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To: dennisw; *tech_index; Mathlete; Apple Pan Dowdy; grundle; beckett; billorites; One More Time; ...
It turns out, Dr. Schmidt told the audience, that what matters most to the computer designers at Google is not speed but power — low power, because data centers can consume as much electricity as a city.

Anyone know where the Google complex is located?

I would bet it is in California. Hence the concern regarding the power! Grayout Davis strikes again!

No mention in the article of the great IBM attempt know as FS - Future System - that was to be a complete break from the highly successful 360/370 that cratered because of its requirement to reprogram everything!

No mention of the stealth companies trying other approaches such as Transmeta and the VIA C3 . Perhaps a later article will widen the focus, there is much happening!

OFFICIAL BUMP(TOPIC)LIST

9 posted on 09/29/2002 9:24:30 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: dennisw
But Google isn't buying. And that is an ominous sign for what is one of the longest-running and most expensive computing projects in history

Um.  Currently, there's no reason for them to buy.  Everything works over at Google.

5 years from now, sure, Google might be looking at upgrading but now?  Why bother?

What a dopey article.

10 posted on 09/29/2002 9:33:53 AM PDT by Psycho_Bunny
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To: dennisw
Excellent article by the way, thanks for posting it!

It could almost be titled , HP bets the company ( and its merger with Compact ) on Itanium.
They have a much bigger problem than Intel if Itanium doesn't find good market acceptance!

11 posted on 09/29/2002 9:37:50 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: dennisw
130 WATTS!! Holy schmuck! And that does not include the fan. No wonder Apple's been pushing for fanless cubes and imacs.
12 posted on 09/29/2002 9:45:11 AM PDT by lavaroise
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To: Psycho_Bunny
Dopey, article about a dopey industry, they've been hiding behind a cloak of

"we're so smart, we make computer's"

since day one.

Now this facades exposure has reached critical mass as so many have seen these "wizards" as myopic dingbats lost in a dingy on a sea of change.

13 posted on 09/29/2002 10:02:50 AM PDT by norraad
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
No mention in the article of the great IBM attempt know as FS - Future System - that was to be a complete break from the highly successful 360/370 that cratered because of its requirement to reprogram everything!

The Itanium does have an x86 execution mode, but due to the constrained clock rate, it's probably slower than a Pentium.

It's unfortunate that Intel will be stuck with their 1970s-era x86 architecture for a long time to come.

14 posted on 09/29/2002 10:28:54 AM PDT by HAL9000
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To: HAL9000
It's unfortunate that Intel will be stuck with their 1970s-era x86 architecture for a long time to come.

So, how many years until that 64-bit Apple machine is delivered, HAL?
15 posted on 09/29/2002 12:07:14 PM PDT by Bush2000
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To: dennisw
<< Opteron, which will begin shipping next year, is based on the original Intel-designed X86 instruction set. That means the chip will run all existing software intended for other Intel chips, as well as compatible processors ...

Beginning to sound to me as if the Intel/HP joint venture might well have a Six Billion Dollar Betamax on its hands!

AMD ROCKS!
16 posted on 09/29/2002 12:10:21 PM PDT by Brian Allen
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To: mikegi
Bonus question: how is the i860 related to the name "Windows NT"?

Although officially NT stands for New or Next Technology, another theory is that the NT acronym orginally came from the softies working on it. The acronym stands for N-Ten, the code name for the i860 chip that NT was being tested on.
17 posted on 09/29/2002 1:13:11 PM PDT by polemikos
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To: mikegi
Intel has done this before. Some old-timers out there might remember the Intel i860. It was supposed to be the great break from x86. It flopped.

They have done this before, but it wasn't the i860. That was the RISC chip, wasn't it? The earlier -- and very similar -- "breakthrough technology" debacle was the iAPX432, which when announced was going to be The Future Of Computing.

This chip pre-dated the Pentium by several years. In a scary (for Intel) parallel to the Itanium, the 432 was going to take us into the world of 32-bit computing. It was supposed to be the successor to the 8086. But like the Itanium, it required all new software. We all know what happened next: the 432 fell on its butt (a shame, really, because it truly was an incredibly advanced architecture for its day) and a turn-the-crank-one-more-time-on-the-x86 called 'Pentium' became the market's choice and Intel's flagship processor.

Watch for the same thing to happen again. It takes a huge hardware price/performance difference to overcome software inertia. That is just not here, either in the chip itself or -- as Mr. Google points out -- in total cost of ownership. Watch for the souped-up X86's, whether AMD's or Yamhill, to mow the Itanium down as soon as they are available.


18 posted on 09/29/2002 1:13:35 PM PDT by Nick Danger
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To: dennisw
"The real challenge to the Itanium may have less to do with marketing and design and more to do with a collapsing economy," said Michael Shulman, an analyst at ChangeWave, a research firm in Potomac, Md.

When I get to be King, guys like this will taken out and shot. Here's a technology program that's been under development for ten years, that is expected to have a 20-year life if it succeeds, and this clown thinks "the real challenge" is where the business cycle is on announcement day. People this stupid and short-sighted should be removed from the breeding pool before they can perpetuate themselves.

The chip may well fail in the market -- I think it will -- but Intel has deep enough pockets that they can easily weather a cyclical downturn. What a jerk this guy is.


19 posted on 09/29/2002 1:23:12 PM PDT by Nick Danger
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To: Bush2000
So, how many years until that 64-bit Apple machine is delivered, HAL?

It will be at least another year before IBM's 64-bit GigaProcessor will be available in Apple's servers and professional systems. Apple is testing it now, but I'd estimate a product won't be delivered until about July 2004. Perhaps more information will be available after the Microprocessor Forum conference in a couple of weeks.

The 32-bit and 64-bit Motorola G5s should be available in early 2003, but I expect Apple will deploy only the 32-bit version initially.

20 posted on 09/29/2002 1:43:44 PM PDT by HAL9000
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