Republicans Lead in House Races - Barely

NewsMax ^ | 9/27/02 | Limbacher

[Torie]

I asked this before. Is your anaysis available on the net? If so, what is the link? I would love to review it. Thanks.

In any event, you are assuming most of the really close races go to the GOP, including the GOP sweeping C0-7, AZ-1, NV-2, NH-1, CN-5, PA 17, IL-19, IN-2, NM-3, MN-2, IA-2, KY-4. I think that is a bit optimistic. Even if the GOP has a slight to a bit more than slight edge in all, statistically the Dems are bound to take a couple.

[crasher]

Amen. Also on my list is how the media, since this is a redistricting year, divides House races into about 6 different categories (new seats, incumbent-incumbent, incumbents, open, etc.)

[crasher]

In my mind there are now 15 real tossups. The GOP has 217 seats (218 with Hall) before winning any of them. The 15 tossups in order of GOP likelihood of winning. We need to win 7 of 15 to net 1 seat.

1. AL (Riley)

2. NV (new)

3. CT (Johnson)

4. NH (open)

5. IL (Shimkus)

6. NM (Skeen)

7. CO (NEW)

8. AZ (NEW)

9. MN (Luther)

10. PA (Gekas)

11. MD (Morella)

12. SD (Thune)

13. IN (open)

14. MD-02 (open)

15. FL (Thurman)

[Torie]

Well I would have minor disagreements with your order, except that CO-7 is now a distinct GOP lean. The Dem candidate for that district was on a radio show here in LA of all places, trying to explain why he called Pubbies chickenhawks on the Iraq issue, and then trying to explain that those that favored school vouchers wanted to give money to "billybob" Christian academy. Freeley refused to define either term, despite repeated pressing (are all those that run Christian schools redneck retrograde dummies?), and came off incredibly stupid, leftist and dishonest. It was a total disaster. Freeley needs therapy and he needs it now. The press will pick up on this, and he is going to sink. Big bump to Beauprez.

[Torie]

By the way, Hugh Hewitt, the talk show host, is going to repeat the Freeley interview for his next three radio shows. I don't know if it is picked up in Colorado, but he said that he has been getting thousands of emails. Hewitt of course is a partisan Pubbie lawyer from Orange County, that is also a radio guy, who knows whose throat is vulnerable, and delights in going after it.

[crasher]

Good point on CO. We lucked out there that the Dems nominated a dud.

[crasher]

Mydd's latest projections on Governor's races conform exactly to my own. They are very reasonable. The Senate and House are still weird, but he seems to consider new evidence as it comes in.

[Salvation]

No way to we want to gain a Senate majority and lose the majority in the House.

I think we will keep the House GOP and gain a new GOP Senate. Then watch the judicial appointees!!!!!

[Salvation]

Democrats will never be able to match the Republicans dollar for dollar, but to ensure victory for Mark Pryor and other Democrats in the 2002 elections we must get the message out and do everything we can to compete -- that's why we are asking for your immediate help today.

Interesting, interesting, interesting..........................are the dims crying in their soup yet?

[Torie]

Yes, he still has Bonilla behind on his list. What will be interesting is whether right before the election he gets his calls into shape in order to preserve his reputation, sort of like a corrupt pollster.

You are right about governors. It seems that state races (except Florida) simply don't generate the partisan juices. I suspect Hilleary will win in Tenn though. He has cut his deficit down quite a bit, and Tenn is a not a good place to be a Dem anymore. The AZ race is also very tight. I haven't seen any of the candidates on the tube though. I am still toweling off though from the cold shower of watching the CO senate debate. I am not ready to endure another.

[linn37]

time for folks to put your money where your mouth is

[Torie]

By the way your 15 tossups are the seats I have closest (I have 15 seats within a 55-45 range), except I have Georgia 3 in there and not Maryland 2. I just can't quite believe the Maryland 2 polls or the Bentley thing. Clay's website said some group endorsed him though because he was a "physical conservative." Ouch. Here is my list, for what it is worth:

1	Shimkus (Illinois)	0.550
2	Sununu (NH open)	0.550
3	Luther (Minn 2nd)	0.550
4	Colorado 7th (new)	0.550
5	So Dak (open)  	        0.525
6	Penn (Gekas)	        0.525
7	Nevada 3rd (new)     	0.525
8	Johnson (Conn)	        0.525
9	Indiana (Roemer)	0.510
10	Florida (Thurman)	0.510
11	Arizona 1st 	(new)   0.510
12	Riley (Alabama open)	0.510
13	Skeen (NM open)	        0.510
14	Morella (MD)	        0.490
15	Georgia 3rd	        0.450

[crasher]

You are now favoring the GOP in 231 races I believe. I am at 227. All of yours, minus Thurman, Roemer, Luther, and Gekas. So put me down at GOP + 3 on that score.