Israel Tells the U.S. It Will Retaliate if Attacked by Iraq

JERUSALEM, Sept. 21 — Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has informed the Bush administration that he plans to strike back if Iraq attacks Israel, according to Israeli and Western officials.

Mr. Sharon's statements, made privately to senior American officials in recent weeks, represent a major shift in Israeli thinking since the 1991 Persian Gulf war, when 39 Iraqi Scud missiles struck without any Israeli response.

The prime minister's position reflects a widespread belief among Israeli politicians and generals that Arab leaders perceived Israel's restraint in 1991 as weakness. Throughout his military and political career, Mr. Sharon has always held that any attack on Israel must be promptly and powerfully punished.

"I don't think there is a scenario in which Israel will get hit and not strike back," a senior Western official said. "I think the evolving strategy will be commensurate response."

Mr. Sharon's position has significant implications for the Pentagon, which fears that an Israeli entry would stir up Arab public opinion and make it harder for the Pentagon to maintain cooperation from the Arab states where Washington hopes to base American forces

If we assume that Israel's gov't consults with the White House prior to launching a nuclear retalliation, the White House would probably say "no" anyway. Do you seriously think that General Sharon would care what we think? I doubt it. So, the real problem is that US agents, operatives, and advance teams will be in Baghdad and other areas or Iraq snooping for WMD and scooping targets. Then, suddenly a nuke from Israel wipes out communication with field operatives, fries all international satillite links, and then toasts our planning.

With friends like that, no wonder they're spying on the nation who set them up!

Regarding biological weapons, Israel has some good medical facilities but I doubt that they will be able to identify anthrax within 72 hours of when the strike occurs. It is more likely that anthrax will be laced into other things. If IDF or emergency crews respond and are unknowingly exposed, they will present symptoms several days later. By that point, the war could be over.

If the Arab gov't's spent nearly as much time on their own people's issues as they spend on Israel, there wouldn't be nearly the amount of disease and suffering in their nations (to be certain!).

Regarding US vs. China, China is the biggest challenge to US military supremacy. They would roll over So. Korea in a few days if they entered the peninsula again. So, yes, the Chinese are a major player, especially since their population is so big.

Russia is still a major player by virtue of their nukes.

Israel does have ICBM technology and does have nuclear capability. This makes Israel a nuclear player and important.

However, I suppose I should define "major" in my thinking. A major nation has substantial natural resources, large population to utilize resources, a strong economy to mobilize against threats to well-being, and the ability to be stand by itself. By these definitions, Israel is not major and neither are some European and Asian nations. Taiwan and So. Korean are both reliant on US military cooperation. Japan is resource poor, which means they aren't "major" either. Israel, though strategic, does not warrant a controlling influence on US foreign policy. In fact, we should be more concerned with stabilizing the Russian economy, improving democratic change in China, and stabilizing European and Japanese economics.

A. I don't know how the Israelis would react, with conventional or nuclear weapons.
B. I'm sure everything possible would be done to reduce friendly fire casualties. Just like the US Armed Forces would do if they were hit by chemical weapons and had to retaliate. And I suspect if he was to hit Israel, he would also hit the US Army.

A. Israel has already stated it would respond with nuclear force.

B. This is an argument against IDF involvement in the war. If the US is similarly attacked, US forces would most certainly respond similarly to the response of the IDF.

A. I personally think chemical weapons are much more likely.

My point is that Sharon's comments are ridiculous. IDF is handcuffed by the circumstances. Even if they had the force to mount a response, Israel can not politically. If Sharon does respond militarily, it will likely damage US-Israeli relations for a long time.

B. The United States, without knowing what it was looking for, or knowing to look for it, recognized Anthax in a country of 270+ million in under a week?

We got lucky. The infectious disease physician in West Palm Beach was an astute clinician and he made the correct phone call to CDC in a timely manner. Nevertheless many people suffered and died during the attack. Part of the reason is the inability of local physicians to diagnose the disease with locally available labs. CDC has not prepared the nation for biological attack and if we suffer civilian casualties in the next few months, don't blame me... i've been posting here about this issue for a year now.

C. I doubt the war would be over that quickly if we're assuming the biological weapons are used from the start. I'm not one who sees another 72 hour ground campaign, although I would hope for one.

Regardless of how long the ground offensive takes, IDF involvement is not planned into the agenda. It would throw off our planning and logistics. Once we are in motion, Sharon should defend his nation by working to shoot down incoming threats, but he should stay out of our theatre of operations.

D. If the war was looking to be over in 3 days or so, I don't think the Israelis would retaliate with anything other then conventional munitions.

No, the reason I have been so vocal on this thread is that the Israeli gov't has already stated policy to do nuclear retalliation to use of biological, chemical, or nuclear weapons. The Israeli gov't needs to stop painting itself in a corner. They've lost control of the situation. This situation is now being controlled by the US and the White House.

Althought I'm just a joe-6-pack citizen, the reality is that Sharon is not convincing me of his ability to create a longer term peace strategy in the mid-east.

aww come on. I just laid out a great set of practical reasons, and you won't cut any slack on the definition of major???

Here's some info on the IDF from http://www.wikipedia.com/wiki/Israeli_Defence_Force

Israel is the only nuclear power in the middle east. Although the government has never officially admitted it, nuclear weapons were developed at the Dimona site in the 1960s, with the first two nuclear bombs probably operational before the six-day war. It is widely reported that Prime Minister Eshkol ordered them armed in Israel's first nuclear alert during thar war. It is also reported that, fearing defeat in the October 1973 Yom Kippur War, the Israelis assembled 13 twenty-kiloton nuclear bombs.

The current size and composition of Israel's nuclear stockpile is uncertain, and is the subject of various estimates and reports. Isreal probably has 100-200 nuclear warheads, which can be delivered by airplanes (F-4 Phantom II), or ballistic missiles (Lance, Jericho, or Jericho II missiles). The Jericho II is reported to have a range between 1,500 and 4,000 kms, meaning that it can target sites as far away as central Russia.

Military branches:

IDF

Ground

Air

Navy

Pioneer Fighting Youth (Nahal)

Frontier Guard

Military manpower - military age: 18 years of age

Military expenditures - dollar figure: $8.7 billion (FY99)

Military expenditures - percent of GDP: 9.4% (FY99)

The IDF's human assets (estimate, source: CIA World Factbook 2000) Military manpower - Category Males Females Availability (age 15-49) 1,499,186 1,462,063

Fit for military service (age 15-49) 1,226,903 1,192,319

Reaching military age (18) annually 50,348 47,996

*******************************************| By comparison to China's forces:

http://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peoples_Republic_of_China/Military

People's Liberation Army (PLA), which includes the Ground Forces, Navy (includes Marines and Naval Aviation), Air Force, Second Artillery Corps (the strategic missile force), People's Armed Police (internal security troops, nominally subordinate to Ministry of Public Security, but included by the Chinese as part of the "armed forces" and considered to be an adjunct to the PLA in wartime)

Military manpower

Military age: 18 years of age

Availability:
males age 15-49: 363,050,980 (2000 est.)

Military manpower - fit for military service:
males age 15-49: 199,178,361 (2000 est.)

Military manpower - reaching military age annually:
males: 10,839,039 (2000 est.)

Military expenditures - dollar figure: $12.608 billion (FY99); note - The actual amount of PRC military spending remains highly controversial. First of all, the military may get resources which are not listed in the official budget. Second, it is difficult to get agreement on the conversion factor used to convert military expenditures to dollars.

Military expenditures - percent of GDP: 1.2% (FY99)

***************************************** Given that the PLA is 100 X larger than the IDF, I'd say that yes the Chinese could run like a Mongol Horde over Jerusalem.

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