Israel Tells the U.S. It Will Retaliate if Attacked by Iraq

The New York Times ^ | 9/21/2002 | Michael R. Gordon

[ex-Texan]

Israel Tells the U.S. It Will Retaliate if Attacked by Iraq

By MICHAEL R. GORDON

JERUSALEM, Sept. 21 — Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has informed the Bush administration that he plans to strike back if Iraq attacks Israel, according to Israeli and Western officials.

Mr. Sharon's statements, made privately to senior American officials in recent weeks, represent a major shift in Israeli thinking since the 1991 Persian Gulf war, when 39 Iraqi Scud missiles struck without any Israeli response.

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The prime minister's position reflects a widespread belief among Israeli politicians and generals that Arab leaders perceived Israel's restraint in 1991 as weakness. Throughout his military and political career, Mr. Sharon has always held that any attack on Israel must be promptly and powerfully punished.

"I don't think there is a scenario in which Israel will get hit and not strike back," a senior Western official said. "I think the evolving strategy will be commensurate response."

Mr. Sharon's position has significant implications for the Pentagon, which fears that an Israeli entry would stir up Arab public opinion and make it harder for the Pentagon to maintain cooperation from the Arab states where Washington hopes to base American forces

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[El Gato]

Frankly, Israel would be leveled by one device because Israel is so geographically challenged.

I see you have very little knowledge of nuclear weapons effects. It's true Israel is a small country, but it's not that small. Esepcially considering that none of their enemies are likely to have thermonuclear weapons, limiting the potential yield of a single device to a few 10s of kilotons, at most, in anything delieverable by aircraft or missle. Even if they did, not even the big baby that the Soviets once exploded, which was something on the order of 50 megatons would "level" Israel. This site indicates that even a 50 MT weapon would only break windows at a distance of about 45 miles. It indicates that destructive radius of a bomb goes as the cube root of the yeild, and give window breaking distance for a 20MT bomb. Lots of small ones are better than one big one. Even so it would take 3 of those 50MT devices (the one was a one of a kind device, although it was air delievered), to even break windows over all of Israel.

[bonesmccoy]

STRAITS TIMES EUROPE BUREAU http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/world/story/0,1870,144349,00.html

LONDON - Former British prime minister John Major says that before any US-led attack is launched against Iraq, its leader Saddam Hussein will be warned that if he uses chemical or biological weapons, nuclear bombs will be dropped on his country.

Mr Major revealed that 'private warnings' had been passed on to President Saddam that there would be an immediate nuclear response if he used weapons of mass destruction during the 1991 Gulf War, following Iraq's invasion of neighbouring Kuwait.

Mr Saddam had been told that Baghdad would be 'obliterated' if he used chemical or biological weapons against either allied coalition troops or any Middle East target.

The warnings had the desired effect and Mr Major, who was Conservative Party prime minister at the time, said that similar warnings would be passed on before any future strike against Iraq.

Mr Major said in a future war, the worst nightmare would be that Mr Saddam, facing defeat, might use his chemical or biological weapons.

'In a new war, we will be going in specifically to replace the Iraqi regime. Saddam will be gone,' Mr Major said.

'He will be dead. He will be in prison or he will be in exile.

'If he was cornered, would he try to create maximum chaos? Would he seek to use weapons of mass destruction?

'Would he use them on oil fields in the Middle East, to create economic chaos? Would he pass them to terrorist groups?

'Would he - perhaps the worst nightmare of also - try to use them on an adjacent capital?'

During the 1991 war, Iraq targeted Jerusalem with 39 Scud missiles, killing two people and injuring hundreds of others, in an attempt to drag Israel into the war.

Mr Saddam knew that if Israel joined the coalition forces, Arab support of the coalition might evaporate. The US persuaded Israel not to retaliate against the Iraqi attacks, supplying Patriot ground-to-air missiles to help destroy the Scuds.

Mr Major made his remarks about the nuclear deterrent in a public appeal to the current Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith to question Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair more closely over Iraq.

Mr Major asked: 'What is the exit strategy after the current Iraqi regime has gone? Who will replace them? How long will coalition troops stay in Iraq?

'Will Iraq split into pieces? Will there be chaos thereafter?'

He said these questions should already have been asked of Mr Blair.

[bonesmccoy]

Sir, the narrowest point of Israel is only a few miles. One nuke will puke the whole country. Israel has to be preemptive against nuclear threat. So, Gen. Sharon should let us do the work.

[El Gato]

Who cares about Arafat?

I'm an American dammit!

Yeah, so am I, and so was Leon Klinghoffer, a disabled passenger murdered in his wheel chair by Arafat's thugs, while on Mediteranian cruise aboard the Italian cruise ship the Achille Lauro. The Egyptians let the SOBs go, but US Navy F-14s forced the plane carrying the terrorist to land in Italy. See this site

But then again Leon was just a Jew, and even though I am not, that matters not a bit to me, but the fact that he was an American sure as heck does.

[PushinTin]

I think they should start with Mecca.....

[JRandomFreeper]

They would roll over So. Korea in a few days if they entered the peninsula again.

Only if China used nukes. Nobody is going to "roll over" the ROK. I got off the plane from Korea less than 2 days ago. Maybe you should spend some time on the ground in uniform before you make absolute pronouncements.

/john

[LaGrone]

Go Israel, sock it to 'em, sock it to 'em. Sorry, got carried away.

[anapikoros]

For your patients' sake I sincerely hope your ability at differential diagnosis is somewhat better than the thought processes you have demonstrated on this thread.

[Northpaw]

I am no fan of Israel, but I must say that if they are attacked, they must be able to defend and retaliate. Unfortunately, if Israel uses nukes, it will not survive another 10 years. This is a truly damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario that has nothing but a disasterous outcome. The hatred of Israel for killing perhaps tens of thousands in Iraq (and justifiably, if Iraq uses WMD) will eventually culminate in a future nuclear retaliation from some radical Islamists. It will only get uglier.

Everyone on FR that is whoopin' it up, hoping for an Israeli nuclear attack on Iraq, have not thought it out very clearly and should pray it never happens.

[El Gato]

Does IDF AF have communication capabilities with US AWACs or J-star?

I think they have the proper hardware, but they likely don't have the necessary codes for secure comm, nor for IFF settings. If we don't give the codes to the Israelies, which we could and then change them later when the sitution is resolved, then we couldn't tell the difference between Israeli airplanes and Iraqi ones, except if we see them take off, which we might or might not, depending on where the AWACS was positioned. JSTARS of course is used for tracking stuff on the ground, and then passing target coordinates off to the bomb droppers, artillery and of course the commaders in the field. If it sees a big column of tanks heading east accross Jordon, I think we'll be able to figure out that they are Israeli. Confusion could arise if Syria were to jump in on Iraq's side, something I don't consider likely, even if Merkavs (Israeli tanks) are on the road to Bagdad.

[bonesmccoy]

What does that story have to do with Iraq?

[anapikoros]

That's not my perception of what the IDF guy is saying. He seems to be insinuating that the terrorists should go attack the US rather than Israel

All he's saying is that Israel is more prepared for an Iraqui attack than is the USA and consequently it would be easier for Saddam to carry out a biological attack on the US than on Israel. -- where's the insinuation you perceive?

[bonesmccoy]

I'm glad you have that confidence. If one million Chinese troops came across the Yalu, do you seriously believe that 50,000 US troops could stop the onslaught?

[bonesmccoy]

So far, you've not done much to deter my interest in seeing differentiation between US and Israeli goals. I'm tired of seeing it taken for granted that all Americans feel that Israel's interests are my family's interests...the simple truth is no...they're not.

The end result is the same, another Republican President has to clean up the mess of another failed Democrat President. How many times does this scenario have to play out until our nation understands how we are being manipulated?

It's not the White House doing the manipulating. That much is clear!

[bonesmccoy]

Boy, I agree with that. I'm surprised that so many people are wanting Israel to get stuck in the middle of this thing. The Israeli's should step back and let our nation lead at this point. I really feel that we are saving their hide here.

[bonesmccoy]

Boy, I agree with that. I'm surprised that so many people are wanting Israel to get stuck in the middle of this thing. The Israeli's should step back and let our nation lead at this point. I really feel that we are saving their hide here.

[JRandomFreeper]

do you seriously believe that 50,000 US troops could stop the onslaught?

Yes. But we wouldn't need to. ROK rocks.

/john

[anapikoros]

Universal male and female draft (except for the "ultra-othodox" religous shirkers)at age 18. After mandartory service annual reserve duty of about 1 month till age 48 although there's a fair amount of flexibility.

Currently reverve combat troops are doing more than their annual month of service due to the intifada.

In time of all-out war with full mobilization over 500,000 reserves can join the standing army in about 48 hours and ready to roll on 3 fronts.

[bonesmccoy]

my original point was that Israel's Defense Forces were not the number three force on Earth. Your point backs that up. Say, if your a military guy, what do you think about the points regarding the force ratios between PLA and IDF armies?

[anapikoros]

You said "Israeli gov't has already stated policy to do nuclear retalliation to use of biological, chemical, or nuclear weapons."

When asked for a source you come up with something British PM John Major is purported to have said. Where in the article you proffered is there anything backing up your spurious claim.