Tropical Depression 10

NHC

[dennis1x]

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 7

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2002

the depression remains poorly organized this afternoon...with recon reports continuing to indicate a broad elongated center south and west of the deep convection. Peak flight-level winds were about 40 kt. The aircraft also spent some time in the deep convection east of the center to see if there was a surface reflection below the mid-level turning that was evident there. There was none. However...in the last hour or so recon fixed a center closer to the new convection just south of Jamaica...northeast of the previous one. This may presage the beginning of an organization trend.

The motion has slowed some...and is now estimated to be 285/5. The primary steering factors are a mid-level ridge running east/west across Florida...and the mid-to upper level low that extends from the northwestern Caribbean southwestward across Central America. Over the next three days...the ridge will build or slide eastward while the upper low moves westward or southwestward while a new trough enters the western Gulf of Mexico. This pattern favors a northwesterly track through most of the forecast period with a northward turn at the end. There is now a good consensus among the GFDL...UKMET...Canadian...and NOGAPS on a path over west-central Cuba...albeit with different speeds that will have significant impact on the track beyond 72 hours. The official forecast is just a little to the right of the previous advisory. The AVN does not appear to handle the low-level vortex well. The NOAA gulfstream-iv jet is currently sampling the environment of the depression...and these data will get into the 00z runs of the global models. Water vapor imagery continues to show an improving upper-level environment...as the flow is turning from southwesterly to southeasterly ahead of the tropical cyclone. The outflow pattern is improving as well. The intensity guidance is very aggressive...with ships bringing the depression to 81 kt in 72 hr. An experimental version of ships...that includes the effects of upper ocean heat content...takes the system to 98 kt. The GFDL is doing its usual thing...intensity-wise...but in this case it might be right. I have increased the intensity forecast from the previous advisory...but would like to see just a little more organization from the cyclone before calling for so much strengthening. However...my gut feeling is that subsequent intensity forecasts will be rather higher than this one.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 17/2100z 16.3n 77.6w 30 kts 12hr VT 18/0600z 16.7n 78.6w 35 kts 24hr VT 18/1800z 17.6n 80.0w 45 kts 36hr VT 19/0600z 18.7n 81.4w 55 kts 48hr VT 19/1800z 20.0n 83.0w 65 kts 72hr VT 20/1800z 23.5n 84.5w 70 kts

[dennis1x]

Hey NP99 and other tropical weather buds....could be an exciting weekend...this thing looks like a real threat and its getting its act together quick.

[JoeSixPack1]

The big question is ... A threat to whom? Florida? Gulf? need to get a sky hook on this thing!

[dennis1x]

most likely southern florida....but per the NHC tricky forecast.....

[deport]

Two depressions
Tue, Sep. 17, 2002 4:56 PM ET
Tom Moore, Sr. Met.
Tropical Update, The Weather Channel

A tropical depression south of Jamaica is organizing and may be on the threshhold of becoming a tropical storm. Heavy rains and strong, gusty winds are beginning to punch into Jamaica. In the U. S., residents along the Gulf Coast and Florida should begin paying close attention to future developments regarding T. D. 10. Current projections put it near the Yucatan Channel Friday morning as a strong tropical storm or hurricane. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a new tropical depression has formed about 700 miles east of Bermuda. This system is not expected to strengthen and is no threat to land. In the far eastern Atlantic, a cluster of thunderstorms is moving westward south of the Cape Verde Islands. In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Iselle, moving NW west of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula may briefly attain hurricane status before beginning to weaken.

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[blam]

I had the eye of TS Hanna go directly over my house this past saturday morning. I've had enough, still haven't gotten all the limbs picked up yet.

[goodieD]

They found out later it wasn't really a tropical depression, just a case of the blues.

[Alas Babylon!]

Rainy days and Mondays always get me down.