Sort of Super Tuesday An Assessment of Today’s Primaries (Smith v. Sununu)

ABC News ^ | September 10, 2002 | Mark Halperin

[rightwing2]

Sort of Super Tuesday An Assessment of Today’s Primaries

By Mark Halperin, Elizabeth Wilner and Marc Ambinder

W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 10 — It's primary day in a dozen states — the biggest primary day of the midterm election year.

New Hampshire

The Granite State's Republican Senate primary, in which Rep. John Sununu is challenging incumbent Senator Bob Smith, is the Tuesday contest packing the most national significance, and will be watched closely by the GOP's top operatives, including those at the White House. If he loses, Smith would be the first sitting Senator to lose his seat in a primary since Senator Alan Dixon lost to Carol Moseley-Braun in Illinois in 1992. Most Establishment Republicans have banked on the CW that Sununu, and not Smith, could better defend this seat for the GOP against Democratic nominee Jeanne Shaheen.

With Democrats controlling the Senate by just one seat, and the pool of close races this year pretty evenly split between the two parties, control of the chamber could well boil down to New Hampshire and the identity of the GOP standard-bearer. Hanging the balance: President Bush's judicial nominees, including any US Supreme Court nominees he may have to pick over the next two years, and the bulk of his domestic agenda.

So it is not without pain that Sununu's supporters have watched over the last few weeks as Sununu's formerly comfortable polling lead over Smith has dissipated, and as Smith maintained his overpowered fundraising lead over the challenger. All of which points to the possible CW-busting reality that while the identity of the Republican nominee obviously matters, it won't necessarily determine their chances of holding onto this Senate seat.

The Granite State also is hosting an open race for governor and for a US House seat this year. Depending on how the primaries shake out, Democrats may wind up with women nominees for both House races, the Senate race, and the gubernatorial contest. Republican Senate primary As we said above, many political operatives of both parties have long viewed the close battle for Senate control as possibly boiling down to this state — and more specifically, this primary.

Smith's support among some independents, who are allowed to vote in primaries here, and among certain single-issue Republican voters, may buoy him in this contest. Smith's standing among Republicans dropped after he left the GOP in 2000 to run for president as an independent. When he returned to the party, he cast some centrist votes that further irritated Granite State conservatives, and Sununu decided to challenge him.

Smith, however, has run a hard-charging, sometimes negative campaign, and seems to have a better organization. He convinced Rudy Giuliani to endorse him, and has the public support of the White House, even if Administration operatives make it plain that they were forced to endorse him because he is an incumbent, and that they actually prefer Sununu.

Some of Smith's Senate colleagues have endorsed Sununu, and he has received contributions from former President Bush and other notables. As the son of the former White House chief of staff, he has his family pedigree, as well as the backing of the influential Manchester Union Leader. But he (Sununu) has had trouble raising money, and Smith has pounded him on votes related to terrorism, immigration, and the Middle East that some have charged are out of line (Sununu is a Lebanese-American). Even so, the accusations seem to have thrown Sununu off a bit.

If Smith wins the primary, some Republicans will quietly say the seat is lost, but we disagree with that analysis: the race will be a toss-up either way.

[sinkspur]

Reps. Bill Barr

You don't even know the names of your champions!

Barr's loss was his own damn fault. If he'd stayed where he was, he could have beaten a Democrat, giving us another seat.

But, he turned tail and thought he'd be easily elected in a district that belonged to John Lindner, another solid conservative.

Bob Barr is not worshipped everywhere, not even in Georgia.

[rightwing2]

In just a few hours we'll know whether your rants are correct or not..... Regardless of who wins, I hope they can win the seat in the General..... Now will you support Sununu if he wins or are you a one horse supporter?

I would not likely vote for Sununu in the general due to his anti-US national security voting record across the board (anti-Israel, pro-Arab, pro-illegal immigrant, pro-Communist China) in the House which I find very disturbing, but then again I am not a resident of the state of New Hampshire so this is a moot question. Look, this race is in flux. Either candidate winning will not prove me right because the race is too close to call, but it just may prove a lot of Sununu supporters wrong who continue to argue that Smith can't win.

[sinkspur]

And it really sticks in your craw that the voters still support Smith, doesn't it?

Actually, it doesn't. New Hampshirites can have whomever they want in the Senate.

Besides, I've got to work to get John Cornyn elected over the race-baiting Ron Kirk.

You're itching for a fight, but I'm going to piss you off and not give you one.

[Saundra Duffy]

I hope Smith wins! I sent $70 to him which I feel good about. Too bad there had to be a primary at all. Go, Smith!!!

[sinkspur]

I would not likely vote for Sununu in the general

You can't vote for Smith in the general.

You don't live in New Hampshire!

You're wound a little tight.

[HalfIrish]

The voters in New Hampshire have often done themselves proud. It's only natural that people who don't live there wish to comment on the primary. I guess to some people that means something negative but I'm not entirely sure what?

Go Granite Staters, we need more of your kind in Taxachusetts!!

[rightwing2]

You don't even know the names of your champions! Barr's loss was his own damn fault. If he'd stayed where he was, he could have beaten a Democrat, giving us another seat. But, he turned tail and thought he'd be easily elected in a district that belonged to John Lindner, another solid conservative. Bob Barr is not worshipped everywhere, not even in Georgia.

Bob Barr was ranked somewhere between the top two and the top five most conservative Congressman in the House of Representatives during his tenure there. He successfully led the entire House of Reps to impeach President Bill Clinton and waged the good fight for conservatives on many, many other issues. He has a national following just like Bob Smith, Jesse Helms and other legendary conservative icons. You forget that Bob Barr was gerrymandered out of his district by the liberal Democraps in the Georgia state legislature. He did not change districts. The Dems changed his district for him and then he ran in his new district.

The other new district which took up some of his old district was transformed by the Democraps into a liberal Democrap stronghold, where Barr could not have won re-election. That is why he opted not to move into it to run. Linder who earned a 51% Conservative Index rating last session, was no solid conservatives, but a moderate to moderate conservative. The only way you can call Linder a conservative is relative to mushy moderate John Sununu who scored a cumulative 40% conservative index for the past three CI rankings.

[HalfIrish]

Based on your record of always supporting only the candidates that the GOP establishment pushes, it's fair to assume that you voted against Reagan in the primaries. And I bet you're proud of it, too. You can call that a fight if you'd like.

[rightwing2]

Any time a mushy pile of crap like Sununu runs in a GOP primary against a solid man like Smith, it is in the nation's best interest for the voters to support the man over the mush. Period. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy that certain establishment Republicans and their FReeper butt buddies wish to continue ad nauseum -- Putting up a mushy RINO and then whining because principled voters couldn't bring themselves to pull the lever for the lesser of two evils. Losing elections by forcing principled people to stay home appears to be the future of the GOP. How unfortunate.

Very well stated. Why do so many Freepers refuse to support conservatives in their primary races. Most of the mushy moderate Sununu supporters who oppose conservative hero, Bob Smith, are the same people who celebrated and partied when Bob Barr bit the dust and moderate John Linder beat him. What do these Sununu-Linder supporters have in common you ask? They always back the most liberal RINO candidates and oppose the more conservative candidates in the primary. They are part and parcel of the same RINO crowd that backed Bush's handpicked candidate, RINO Dick Riorden for Governor of California, a pro-abortion pro-gay leftwing extremist to the left of Bill Clinton because they said that his more conservative primary opponents couldn't win. If Sununu wins this one, they will merrily dance on Bob Smith's political grave. If Sununu loses as I pray he does, it will be a dark day for RINOism indeed and a smashing victory for conservatism which will offset the loss of Bob Barr in the House.

[Coop]

Too bad there had to be a primary at all. Go, Smith!!!

Nobody to blame for that but Bob Smith.

[Malcolm]

I always vote for the most conservative candidate in the primary, then I GLADLY vote for the winner of it, whether it was my guy or not. I voted for PJB and for Keyes from '92 to 2000. But do other conservatives do this? H--- no, they're too "principled." LOL, they don't mind electing Dems to ofc, yet are hyper-intolerant when it comes to anyone who doesn't "perfectly" match their checklist.....

[Coop]

No, you insist on throwing labels where they don't belong. There is a HUGE difference between Simon and Riordan. Huge! The same cannot be said for Smith vs. Sununu or Barr vs. Linder. Yet you are not objective enough to simply say "I much prefer Candidate A!" You have to tear down Candidate B.

[HalfIrish]

The power to change the GOP resides within those of us who refuse to go along with the leftward march by voting for inferior candidates. I will never apologize for promoting change within the GOP by withholding my support of candidates who will quicken the pace of said march, regardless of the foolish spasms of certain satisfied Kool-Aid drinkers.

[itsahoot]

I see. Sununu's "mushy" because he didn't leave the
Republican party, but Smith is "solid" because he did stomp out of
the GOP like a crybaby.

Gee Sink, I think that is what Reagan did, to his democratic party.
Did you feel the same way about him?

[deport]

Yes you voting in a state you don't reside is a moot point. But that wasn't the question.... the question was "would you support Sununu should the votes of NH choose him in the primary"? Seems you would take your little ball and run even though the voters spoke and chose someone other than your candidate. Yep makes a whole lot of sense to me to help elect another democrat even if Sununu isn't up to your stuff. He'd be better than the democrat if that is the two choices come November, IMO.

[11th Earl of Mar]

[To rightwing]Now will you support Sununu if he wins or are you a one horse supporter?

deport, here is his answer to the same question I just asked him on another thread.

Posted by rightwing2 to 11th Earl of Mar; Nonstatist
On News/Activism ^ Sep 10 2:55 PM #55 of 56 ^

[Earl of Mar]If Sununu is so bad, why is Smith willing to endorse him in the general election?

[rw2] Because he is a loyal Republican--a fact that some of your more wacked out fellow mushy mod Sununu supporters keep denying. I guess the only thing this shows is that Smith is more of a graceful, gentlemenly, loyal Republican team player than I am and I have been a die hard Republican for my entire life!

[11th Earl of Mar]

I will never apologize for promoting change within the GOP by withholding my support of candidates who will quicken the pace of said march

You would make a brilliant basketball coach.

"Unless I can find a basketball player as good as Michael Jordan to replace him when he retires, I will not fill his position at all. We will simply play four players."

[itsahoot]

Seems you would take your little ball and run even though the
voters spoke and chose someone other than your candidate.

Uh, I guess you now are a Hillary supporter, because the voters spoke?

[rightwing2]

No, you insist on throwing labels where they don't belong. There is a HUGE difference between Simon and Riordan. Huge! The same cannot be said for Smith vs. Sununu or Barr vs. Linder. Yet you are not objective enough to simply say "I much prefer Candidate A!" You have to tear down Candidate B.

Yes there is a big difference between Simon and Riorden. However, what frustrates me is that so many Freepers do not admit that there is also a big difference between Barr and Linder and an even bigger difference between Smith and Sununu, which is why this race is more important to me than the others except perhaps the CA race. Please note that I have supported Simon to the hilt even though he is pretty much a moderate as revealed by his pro-gay statements fiasco. I do this because he was the most conservative primary contender (which ain't saying much) and because California is a liberal Democrap state while New Hampshire is most certainly not. Simon, Lungren, and Linder are all pretty much in the same category of moderates to moderate conservative.

Sununu is not as conservative as Simon, Lungren and Linder as demonstrated by his increasingly liberal 40% Conservative voting record. In fact, he is not conservative at all. He is best defined as a mushy moderate although paradoxically he did vote more conservatively in past years. Smith and Barr are in a completely separate category of conservative champions which are extremely rare to see elected in Congress. They are the kind of national conservative leaders with national conservative followings that make a mark on the policies and future of our country while the moderates clearly do not.

[rightwing2]

Too bad there had to be a primary at all. Go, Smith!!! Nobody to blame for that but Bob Smith.

That bizarre statement deserves the biggest laugh of the day. Who do you blame the victim of the drive-by shooting or the shooter? the mugger or the person being mugged? Mushy moderate Johnny Sununu is trying to mug conservative hero Bob Smith and leave him for dead to steal his job and you blame Smith for having the nerve to defend his Senate seat and advance the GOP chances for recapturing the Senate majority. You Sununu supporters have really got a lot of nerve.