Posted on 09/10/2002 6:04:06 AM PDT by Tumbleweed_Connection
As America braces to commemorate the one-year anniversary of the worst ever attack on its soil, 11 states and the District of Columbia will hold nominating contests, including several of the highest profile intra-party battles of the cycle. Here's our preview.
Turnout will be watched more closely than usual by the campaigns, the parties, elections officials, and the media. Not only will the make-up of the electorate prove especially key to deciding the outcome of certain statewide races in Florida and New Hampshire, among others, but everyone will be watching to see whether voters feel more inspired to turn out because of the proximity to the September 11 anniversary. As you'll recall, in November 2001, after the terrorist attacks, voters were not especially motivated to turn out on election day, and they haven't been so far this year, either.
Among the possible highlights of Tuesday's results: Florida will hold its first statewide elections since the 2000 recount. In New Hampshire, Senator Bob Smith (R) may become the first US Senator to lose his seat in a primary since 1992. Elizabeth Dole is almost certain to become the Republican nominee to replace retiring Senator Jesse Helms in North Carolina. Former Clinton Attorney General Janet Reno may lose her bid for governor of Florida, days after former Clinton HUD Secretary Andrew Cuomo dropped his bid for governor of New York. Clinton White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles is expected to become the Democratic Senate nominee in North Carolina, but may have a closer race than many expect. As many as nine women could be nominated for governor and Senate. Democrats also will formally nominate Carl McCall for governor of New York. If elected in November (which today seems unlikely), McCall would become the state's first African-American governor, and only the second ever elected in the United States. Multimillionaire Thomas Golisano, who has threatened to spend up to $70 million of his own money to win the New York governorship (much of that, presumably, against Gov. George Pataki), may win some third-party line on the ballot. In the nation's capital, incumbent Anthony Williams (D) is likely to become the first mayor to effectively win by a write-in campaign (since whoever wins the Democratic nomination will cruise in the general election).
Florida
The highlight of the Sunshine State's first statewide election since the 2000 presidential recount is the Democratic gubernatorial primary featuring former Clinton Administration Attorney General Janet Reno and first-time candidate Bill McBride.
Primaries also will be held for other statewide offices, along with a countywide ballot measure in Miami-Dade to repeal a 25-year-old gay rights ordinance.
Expectations (and hopes) for an uneventful ballot count will be high across the board, and political parties, outside groups, and the media will likely focus as much on the process of the election as they will on the elections themselves.
Democratic gubernatorial primary
In recent days, Reno's formerly wide lead over attorney McBride has shrunk as McBride, who is the lesser known but the better-funded of the two Democrats, has launched a massive TV advertising campaign, and as the two engaged in a well-covered debate.
The Democratic party establishment, unions, and other interest groups fixated on taking out Gov. Jeb Bush (R) — as well as the Bush camp — have long viewed McBride as a stronger potential challenger to Bush than the quirky Reno would be, and this support and McBride's media push are giving him the momentum in this final week.
Republican TV ads attacking McBride may have actually served to bolster him among Democratic primary voters by setting him up as the bigger threat to Bush.
If McBride wins the nomination, Bush's re-election would no longer be the sure thing it once seemed, as Democrats pour resources into the state to take advantage of a strong, centrist, upset candidate.
A Reno loss also would be another bad mark for Clinton Administration alums, with former HUD Secretary Andrew Cuomo having abandoned his flagging run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in New York earlier this week.
Reno's assets have been her appeal to liberal constituencies and her huge name recognition. When she entered the race, she seemed to demonstrate appeal to a good chunk of the Democratic base, especially women, Jewish, black, and elderly white voters.
But she has been unable to make inroads among middle-class white professionals and union members. Many Floridians seem to think she's too liberal to be governor. And her competence at fundraising and on the stump has ranged from pathetic to barely passable.
McBride, a high-powered and high-priced attorney, has been a key Democratic fundraiser for a decade. When he entered the race against Reno, trial lawyers, teachers, and unions jumped on board. He raised a lot of money quickly, and hoarded it for this advertising push.
The fact that he's in good health might also be an issue for some voters, given that Reno's Parkinson's disease is well known and she sometimes appears frail in public, even once fainting before cameras.
The Bush campaign, being more concerned about facing McBride than Reno, most assuredly has spent a fair amount of coin on opposition research about him.
A third Democrat is in the race: state Sen. Daryl Jones, who is liberal and African-American, and as a result, may siphon some voters from Reno. Jones performed impressively during the recent debate, and appears to laying the groundwork for a future run for statewide office or for Congress.
There is no primary run-off in Florida, so only a plurality is required to win this race.
Attempted gay-rights ordinance repeal
In Miami-Dade, the Christian Coalition and a group of economically liberal black and Hispanic pastors are pushing for a repeal of the county's 25-year-old, Anita Bryant-inspired gay rights ordinance. But the quest of "Take Back Miami-Dade" has been hampered by bad press and accusations of petition fraud.
Business leaders, the media, many local politicians, and gay-rights groups oppose the measure to repeal civil rights protections based on sexual orientation.
The measure is also seen as a referendum on the effectiveness of the Christian Coalition, which in recent years has lost its status as the front line for evangelical social conservatism.
Additional primaries of note
Recount figures on the ballot on Tuesday include former Secretary of State Katherine Harris, who's a shoo-in for the GOP nomination in her Sarasota-based US House district; Palm Beach County Commissioner Carol Roberts, who will win the Democratic nomination to face Rep. Clay Shaw (R) in the 22nd district; and attorney Harry Jacobs of Seminole County (D), and state House Speaker Tom Feeney (R), who are expected their get their respective parties' nods for the newly created 24th district in Central Florida. Jacobs was an attorney for Democrats during the recount, while Feeney was one of George W. Bush's key allies at the time.
And then, there's The Vote itself. Click here to get a quick reminder of how voting works in Florida and for what to expect in the mechanics of balloting this year.
New Hampshire
The Granite State's Republican Senate primary, in which Rep. John Sununu is challenging incumbent Senator Bob Smith, is the Tuesday contest packing the most national significance, and will be watched closely by the GOP's top operatives, including those at the White House.
If he loses, Smith would be the first sitting Senator to lose his seat in a primary since Senator Alan Dixon lost to Carol Moseley-Braun in Illinois in 1992.
Most Establishment Republicans have banked on the CW that Sununu, and not Smith, could better defend this seat for the GOP against Democratic nominee Jeanne Shaheen.
With Democrats controlling the Senate by just one seat, and the pool of close races this year pretty evenly split between the two parties, control of the chamber could well boil down to New Hampshire and the identity of the GOP standard-bearer.
Hanging the balance: President Bush's judicial nominees, including any US Supreme Court nominees he may have to pick over the next two years, and the bulk of his domestic agenda.
So it is not without pain that Sununu's supporters have watched over the last few weeks as Sununu's formerly comfortable polling lead over Smith has dissipated, and as Smith maintained his overpowered fundraising lead over the challenger.
All of which points to the possible CW-busting reality that while the identity of the Republican nominee obviously matters, it won't necessarily determine their chances of holding onto this Senate seat.
The Granite State also is hosting an open race for governor and for a US House seat this year.
Depending on how the primaries shake out, Democrats may wind up with women nominees for both House races, the Senate race, and the gubernatorial contest.
Republican Senate primary
As we said above, many political operatives of both parties have long viewed the close battle for Senate control as possibly boiling down to this state — and more specifically, this primary.
Smith's support among some independents, who are allowed to vote in primaries here, and among certain single-issue Republican voters, may buoy him in this contest.
Smith's standing among Republicans dropped after he left the GOP in 2000 to run for president as an independent. When he returned to the party, he cast some centrist votes that further irritated Granite State conservatives, and Sununu decided to challenge him.
Smith, however, has run a hard-charging, sometimes negative campaign, and seems to have a better organization. He convinced Rudy Giuliani to endorse him, and has the public support of the White House, even if Administration operatives make it plain that they were forced to endorse him because he is an incumbent, and that they actually prefer Sununu.
Some of Smith's Senate colleagues have endorsed Sununu, and he has received contributions from former President Bush and other notables. As the son of the former White House chief of staff, he has his family pedigree, as well as the backing of the influential Manchester Union Leader. But he has had trouble raising money, and Smith has pounded him on votes related to terrorism, immigration, and the Middle East that some have charged are out of line (Sununu is a Lebanese-American). Even so, the accusations seem to have thrown Sununu off a bit.
If Smith wins the primary, some Republicans will quietly say the seat is lost, but we disagree with that analysis: the race will be a toss-up either way.
Primaries for governor
Shaheen's decision to run for Senate has created a wide open governor's race. Two Democrats — state Senator Mark Fernald and state Senate Minority Leader Beverly Hollingworth — want their party's nomination. Three Republicans — businessman Craig Benson, former State Senator Bruce Keough, and former Senator Gordon Humphrey — want the Republican nod.
Humphrey is a polarizing figure for some, with fierce partisans and equally fierce detractors. Most Democrats believe that running against Humphrey as the GOP nominee would give them their best chance to retain the governorship seat (Humphrey narrowly lost to Shaheen in 2000.). Humphrey has the Union Leader endorsement.
The prospect of a Smith/Humphrey ticket worries Republicans and tickles Democrats. Benson, founder of Cabletron, has taken a lot of heat from his GOP rivals over his business dealings and the corporate responsibility issue, but ideologically and temperamentally may be the better candidate for Republicans.
The combined spending of the three Republicans has been immense, and has caused some New Hampshire traditionalists to bemoan the arrival of big money politics in the state.
Primaries for the House
Sununu's Senate bid left his House seat wide open: Martha Fuller Clark is the certain Democratic nominee, but Republicans are hosting a packed primary for their nomination.
Republican Rep. Charlie Bass in the state's other House district is likely to face Katrina Swett, daughter of Rep. Tom Lantos and wife of former Rep. Dick Swett. Swett does face competition for the Democratic nod from a candidate who got "Seinfeld" sidekick Jason Alexander to cut a TV ad for him.
New York
For all the sniping that went on in New York's Democratic gubernatorial primary, you'd think GOP Gov. George Pataki is truly vulnerable.
Even with former Clinton Housing and Urban Development Secretary Andrew Cuomo out of the race, state Comptroller Carl McCall — who is seeking to become the state's first African-American governor, and only the second ever elected in the United States — still has a tough road ahead.
But despite the state's Democratic tilt, the politically wily Pataki, benefiting not only from his own smart plays for Democratic support but from all the lingering undertones of September 11, at least today remains heavily favored to win a third term.
McCall has taken hits for his stewardship of the state's finances and, most recently, has had to defend his chosen running mate, who admitted to fathering two children out of wedlock.
Pataki, meanwhile, has happily remained above the fray, jetting from Albany to New York City regularly, reminding voters of his leadership in the months after the terrorist strikes. At the same time, he has won over some unions that ordinarily would side with the Democratic candidate.
Pataki also has become about the third best fundraiser in American politics, after George W. Bush and Gov. Gray Davis.
Also to be decided Tuesday: the Independence Party nomination for governor. Pataki and candidate Thomas Golisano both want it. It would give Pataki an added line on the ballot.
If Golisano wins that contest, under the state's bizarre rules, he could become a real factor in the race, if not a credible winner.
Most observers believe that Golisano drains votes from Pataki, and the wealthy businessman has promised to spend as much as $70 million of his own money in the general election.
North Carolina
In another nationally watched Senate race, and one particularly marked by the corporate responsibility issue, Elizabeth Dole and former Clinton White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles are likely to become the respective Republican and Democratic nominees to replace the retiring Jesse Helms on Tuesday.
Both face some primary opposition, and observers will take note of how strong their showings are. Bowles in particular faces credible challenges from a woman statewide elected official and a longtime African-American legislator.
Dole, despite her huge name recognition and fundraising advantages, faces carpetbagger charges, and has avoided engaging with her GOP rivals. Her most visible opponent is Jim Snyder, a 6-foot 7-inch attorney who claims to be the true heir to Helms' legendary conservatism. But Helms endorsed Dole earlier this year.
May 7 was the original primary date, but legal tussles over redistricting caused the state legislature to reschedule the primary for September 10, without the usual run-offs which take place here when no candidate receives more than 40 percent of the vote.
The lengthened primary season required the national political parties to get involved in this race sooner than they perhaps would have, and both have played up the corporate responsibility issue: Democrats hit Dole for allegedly not telling the truth about a fundraiser held for her by then-Enron chief Ken Lay, and Republicans have sought to play up Bowles' corporate ties (to Merck and others).
Neither Dole nor Bowles have been able to put to rest questions about their campaign abilities. Dole remains comfortably ahead in the polls, but Democrats hope Bowles can make this race competitive after he presumably secures the nomination.
Other States
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Florida won't be the only state where the balloting and vote-counting will be scrutinized: if he wins the Democratic primary on Tuesday, Mayor Anthony Williams (D) will become the city's first mayor to get elected effectively through a write-in candidacy. In this overwhelmingly Democratic city, Williams — or whoever becomes the Democratic nominee — will cruise to election in November.
Williams, of course, was tossed off the primary ballot after thousands of his qualifying signatures turned out to be fraudulent; he apologized for poor management but denied knowledge of the malfeasance.
After that debacle, a well-known DC pastor, Willie Wilson (D), also announced his write-in candidacy for mayor and is viewed as Williams' strongest primary opposition, in part simply because of voters' possibly confusing the two last names.
None of the candidates actually listed on the ballot are expected to make a strong showing.
Because of the manner in which DC counts write-in votes, the outcome of this primary (and thus, the race) is not expected to be known for at least a few days, and possibly not for as long as a week.
MARYLAND
The continuing political legacy of the Kennedy clan will be given a workout on Tuesday.
The top-ticket gubernatorial race between Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D) and GOP Rep. Bob Ehrlich will finally be certified, with neither of them facing real primary opposition.
The real action is in the Washington, DC suburbs-based 8th Congressional District, where state Del. Mark Shriver, son of Eunice and Sergeant, is one of four Democrats battling for the nomination to face the very vulnerable Rep. Connie Morella (R). Shriver faces tough competition from at least one of the three other Democrats, but he has the backing of the AFL-CIO and, of course, has been raising money like gangbusters.
ARIZONA
Republican Gov. Jane Dee Hull is term-limited, and Democrats think they can pick up another governor's mansion here with state Attorney General Janet Napolitano.
On September 10, Napolitano is expected to dispatch her four primary challengers with ease and plunge into the general election with a bucketload of state-provided "Clean Elections" money and eager Democratic interest groups on her side. She cites suing Qwest Communications among her populist credentials. She's also a law and order type — she touts her conviction of Sammy "The Bull" Gravano and a host of high-profile drug cases. One of two leading Republicans (out of a passel of 'em) will advance to challenge Napolitano — Rep. Matt Salmon, a vivacious, "real" conservative, or Secretary of State Betsy Bayless, a "Bush Conservative."
Salmon touts his fiscal conservatism, but also claims credit for increasing research money for cancer treatment and prevention. Bayless, a national leader on election reform issues, has targeted Hispanics, Republican women, and families concerned about education. Most polls show Salmon leading Bayless, but many primary voters remain undecided.
Also on Tuesday, Democrats are likely to nominate former Clinton White House aide Fred Duval in the newly drawn 1st district, which is one of the largest in the country — bigger than 27 states.
WISCONSIN
Three Democrats are vying to take on acting Gov. Scott McCallum (R), who replaced Bush HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson and who has tried but failed to spend his way out of very bad poll standings.
Rep. Tom Barrett, state Attorney General Jim Doyle, and county executive Kathleen Falk will face off on Tuesday for the Democratic nomination. In another seemingly likely Democratic pick-up, polls show all three Democrats giving McCallum a tough race.
Thompson's brother Ed, a colorful local mayor who is running for governor as a Libertarian, needs to get six percent of the statewide primary vote in order to qualify for $200,000 in public funds.
GEORGIA
Candidates for Georgia's two new House districts didn't get a majority of the votes on August 17, so Democrats in the 12th district and Republicans in the 13th face a run-off on Tuesday.
MINNESOTA
Just your basic cementing of the fields here.
Former St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman will formally become the Republican nominee against Democratic Senator Paul Wellstone, with Green Party candidate Ed McGaa positioned to siphon crucial Democratic votes from Wellstone in a close race, as this is expected to be. Also, the Independence Party will nominate their candidate, Jim Moore, a banker.
The parties also will certify their anointed candidates for governor, including the Independence Party's Tim Penny, who is expected to be a real force in the race and could even follow in Jesse Ventura's footsteps and get elected, and a Green Party candidate who could serve as a spoiler in a close race.
If Penny should win the governorship, it would be only the second time since World War I that two independent or third-party candidates have served successively as governor.
VERMONT
Longtime Democratic Gov. Howard Dean is retiring and is likely to run for president. Likely to be nominated in the race to replace him: Lt. Gov. Doug Racine (D) and state Treasurer Jim Douglass (R), along with one or two third-party candidates.
RHODE ISLAND
In yet another tantalizing open governor's race for Democrats, they are fielding a couple of strong candidates in the race to replace term-limited Gov. Lincoln Almond (R), including yet another woman: repeat contender Myrth York. The Republican nomination is less in doubt: businessman Don Carcieri is favored to win.
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