Posted on 09/03/2002 12:17:35 PM PDT by pittsburgh gop guy
Hafer crossing party lines to back Rendell for governor
Tuesday, September 03, 2002
By James O'Toole, Post-Gazette Politics Editor
State Treasurer Barbara Hafer, a Republican, will cross party lines to endorse Democrat Ed Rendell in his race for governor against GOP Attorney General Mike Fisher.
The surprise development will be showcased in Fisher's political back yard in a press conference tomorrow morning on the steps of the City-County Building in Downtown Pittsburgh.
Hafer and Rendell will then set out on a cross-state tour with stops in Harrisburg and Philadelphia later in the day. Hafer is to continue to campaign actively for Rendell.
One group that will be a particular target for Hafer would be Republicans who, like the treasurer, favor abortion rights. Hafer, a former Allegheny County commissioner, will also be a wedge to pry voters from Fisher in his geographic base. Before being elected attorney general, Fisher represented a state senate district based in the county's South Hills.
Neither campaign had any immediate comment on the decision by Hafer, who, until early this year, had been a candidate for the Republican nomination for governor. In the face of widespread support for Fisher among the state GOP establishment, she withdrew her candidacy, allowing Fisher to win the nomination unopposed.
More details in tomorrow's Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Trying to ??
They did .. They took over the school system because it sucked so bad ..
And do you know what these all have in common
Big Cities .. Union Towns
And WHY did we flee the city
1) Taxes were to high
2) The school System stinks
3) The crime rate surge
I think that's between Mr. & Mrs. Fisher. Shame on you!
The other question is why in the world would the State of Pennsylvania want the man who ran Philadelphia into the sewer for their Governor.
I just saw an ad of Rendell's stating the FIRST thing on the FIRST day if he is elected will be to Lower Proerty Taxes
http://pittsburgh.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/stories/2002/09/02/editorial4.html
From the August 30, 2002 print edition | More Print Edition Stories |
With the Labor Day weekend upon us, it's likely that you are aware that Pennsylvania will elect a new governor in nine weeks.
Campaigns in the 21st century are virtually nonstop, and nobody was particularly surprised that Mike Fisher and Ed Rendell kept up a frenetic pace as the rest of us vacationed, barbecued and lounged by the pool.
So one can wonder whether the traditional campaign kick-off that surrounds Labor Day means much any more.
Well, even if the candidates and their political partisans have been thinking politics all summer, the rest of us are just beginning to tune into what promises to be a furious fall campaign for the governor's mansion.
Conventional wisdom is that Mr. Rendell, a Democrat, will defeat Mr. Fisher, a Republican, by double-digit percentages, continuing the "eight-year jinx" in Pennsylvania politics that dictates that every eight years the party in the mansion switches.
After eight years of Republican rule, it's the Democrats' turn, the theory goes.
I don't buy it.
The history of Pennsylvania gubernatorial elections over the last half century confirms that most of these races without incumbents prove to be highly competitive and frequently come down to a 100,000 voters. That's a small number when compared to the three to four million people who will cast their ballots on Nov. 5.
In 1994, Republican Tom Ridge beat Democrat Mark Singel by only 198,000 votes out of the 3.5 million cast.
A shift of less than a 100,000 in the last days could have made Mr. Singel governor, a possibility until a felon paroled by the pardons board, chaired by Mr. Singel, murdered someone.
In 1986, Democrat Bob Casey beat Republican Bill Scranton by just 79,000 votes out of 3.3 million cast.
That victory was often attributed to scare tactics employed by Mr. Casey, whose campaign broadcast Mr. Scranton's interest in transcendental meditation and a long-haired guru.
A 40,000-vote shift would have been enough to put Mr. Scranton in the governor's mansion.
In 1978, Republican Dick Thornburgh beat Democrat Pete Flaherty by only 228,000 votes out of 3.7 million cast. That 8-point win for Mr. Thornburgh hardly constitutes a landslide.
Other gubernatorial races, remembered only by the old-timers, had finishes that were just as close.
In 1950, Republican John Fine beat Democrat Richardson Dilworth by just 86,000 votes and, in 1958, Democrat David Lawrence beat Republican Arthur McGonigle by 76,000 votes.
The point is that talk of double-digit percentage wins for any nonincumbent gubernatorial candidate defies Pennsylvania history.
Since World War II, only two such candidates won the governor's mansion by over a half million votes: Republican James Duff in 1946 and Democrat Milton Shapp in 1970.
This, of course, is some solace for Mr. Fisher who, according to the summertime election polls, trails Mr. Rendell by 15 points or so.
Those polls were taken in somewhat of a vacuum, however, long before the Labor Day kick-off of that period in which voters actually start to pay attention to what the candidates are saying.
If history is any predictor, the victor on Nov. 5 will win by less than 200,000 votes, and those who will determine that winner have not yet made up their minds.
Mr. Fisher, the most conservative Republican nominee in a generation, hopes to capitalize on strong support from the pro-life and anti-gun communities, coupled with an appeal to this region as the "hometown boy." He also looks to capitalize upon a traditional anti-Philadelphia bias present throughout the rest of the Pennsylvania.
Watch for his campaign to label Mr. Rendell a "big city liberal" who is out-of-step with basic Pennsylvania views and values.
For Mr. Rendell, watch for a repeat of his primary campaign theme, that he is a pro-growth, can-do mayor who can replicate as governor the same economic turn-around that he claims to have delivered while running the show in Philadelphia.
He has mended fences with organized labor, which opposed his nomination, while trying to keep his ties to traditionally Republican business groups.
Watch for his campaign to label Mr. Fisher as "inexperienced and ineffective" when it comes to running a multibillion-dollar government.
In the end, most Democrats will vote for Mr. Rendell and most Republicans will vote for Mr. Fisher.
But there is that core group of about a half million independent thinkers from both parties who will be targeted over the next two months by both of the candidates.
How they eventually choose to vote on Nov. 5 will determine the winner, and, in my view on this Labor Day, this race for governor is still very much a wide open affair.
MR. DELANO teaches public policy at Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz School and is the money and politics editor for KDKA-TV and Radio and the political analyst for WQED-TV's "On Q Magazine." Contact him at jdelano@andrew.cmu.edu.
© 2002 American City Business Journals Inc.
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