Posted on 09/01/2002 8:24:51 PM PDT by Tumbleweed_Connection
The latest statewide poll in New Hampshire shows U.S. Sen. Bob Smith in a virtual tie against challenger Congressman John Sununu.
The news is significant for Smith, who had been trailing in the polls earlier this summer. Numbers show he has closed the gap and has momentum on his side as he enter the final stretch of the campaign leading to the Sept. 10 primary.
Smith has sought to woo undecided voters with an ad campaign that began last week addressing his brief departure from the Republican Party in July of 1999. At the time, Smith considered a third party run for the White House.
‘‘You know me – teacher, coach, veteran, conservative. I’ve never wavered from our conservative principles,’’ Smith says in the ad.
‘‘Have I made mistakes? Sure. But I’ve always told you where I stand and together we’ve won tough elections. You should decide our future, not pollsters and back-room insiders.’’
‘‘It’s not time for personal attacks and raw ambition. It’s a solemn time for America. We need steady leadership. I ask for your vote to provide that leadership,’’ Smith said.
Smith has said while he made a mistake by leaving the party, his criticisms of the party for abandoning conservative values and causes were made without apology.
Coop, have you seen anything on this? Newsmax is very pro-Smith, and they don't mention whose poll Smith is close in, when it was taken, etc. Also, their definition of "closing the gap" is not defined.
Also, is crossover voting allowed in NH?
What's interesting is the article conspicuously fails to mention two critical things: 1) actual numbers, and 2) whether or not it is a poll of "voters" or "likely voters" in the Republican Primary. If it a poll of "registerd voters" it is useless; only a poll of those most likely to actually vote will give an accurate picture of the likely outcome.
You are correct that all races tend to "tighten" as the polling day looms large, and thus this report, even if accurate, does not necessarily portend a significant change in voter sentiment. But given the Sec'y of State forecast for voter turnout to be around 20%, it is unlikely that anyone other than die-hard conservative Republicans will have a major affect on the outcome. And that spells defeat for Smith, which is why there is a negative ad campaign against Sununu; it's the only way Smith can pry voters away from Sununu.
Only Independent voters, and first time registereds, can have a choice of Party's ballots; the Sec'y of State is predicting a low turnout for this primary (about 20%), which means that most of the voters in this one will be die-hard NH Republicans, which is to say the conservative base, who are exactly the people that Smith p*ssed off the most.
I don't know which poll they are talking about but here is a blip from an article citing a Bob Smith poll saying the race is even..... However they mention no numbers..... so it maybe where they are getting their info....
Friday, August 30, 2002
Poll: Smith, Sununu even
By KEVIN LANDRIGAN, Telegraph Staff
landrigank@telegraph-nh.com
A new statewide poll done for U.S. Sen. Bob Smith shows both the Republican race for U.S. Senate and governor are in a virtual dead heat.Smith campaign officials declined comment.
.........
Other sources told about the results in the governor’s race report Craig Benson was leading with 27.5 percent to 26 percent for Gordon Humphrey and 25 percent for Bruce Keough. The remaining 21.5 percent had a different choice or were undecided.
This is the first poll that puts Keough this close to Humphrey and Benson.
The margin of error for the survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters was plus or minus 3.5 percent.
According to sources, Smith’s pollster, John McLaughlin, concluded Smith’s primary race with John E. Sununu was within the margin of error, although further details were not available.
Sununu endorsed
Sununu won the endorsement of Manchester state Sen. Ted Gatsas along with that of nine newspapers Thursday.
Foster’s Daily Democrat and the Laconia Evening Citizen endorsed Sununu’s nomination over incumbent Smith in Thursday’s editions.
Sununu also got the backing of the Salmon Press Group, which owns seven weekly newspapers, including the Coos County Democrat, Berlin Reporter and Meredith News.
But the Berlin Reporter also published a companion editorial from local management supportive of Smith.
Gatsas is the fourth of the 11 Senate Republicans to support Sununu.
‘‘It’s critically important to elect a Republican that can and will beat Jeanne Shaheen in November,’’ Gatsas said.
"A new statewide poll done for U.S. Sen. Bob Smith......" [emphasis added]
This is a classic campaign tactic; have your own pollster gen up a poll showing you "closing the gap" or in a "dead heat" with your opponent, and leak it to the media. This begets "media buzz" and the reports are intended to influence wavering voters who don't want to "waste" a vote on the losing candidate.
When an independent poll, not paid for by one of the candidates or their camps followers, indicates Smith is in a "dead heat" with Sununu, I'll start to believe it.
That is the conventional wisdom with which I agree. Shaheen was able to portray each of her three opponents in the governor's elections as 'right wing extremists' and it payed off for her. She will do it again with Smith and, I think, be successful.
I believe she will have a tougher time doing that with Sununu. He may be as conservative, but his image is softer and he is just plain too smart, IMO.
Good observation. Once again, this is an example (like the bogus "poll" trotted out by Smith's own pollster) of what a candidate who is losing the race does as it gets down to the short strokes. Smith campaign HAS to resort to these tactics, because they know he's finished unless they can shake something loose or get something to stick.
As an outsider, I was really turned off by Smith - and I have no real dog in this fight.
Neither do I, though I live in NH, and desperately do not want Shaheen (the Dem) to end up representing me in the senate for the next 6 years. All available evidence indicates Sununu has a better chance of beating Shaheen than Smith does, so from a strictly utilitarian point of view, one has to lean toward Sununu if the objective is to defeat Shaheen.
This is a topic that isn't mentioned very often. In terms of sheer intellectual horsepower, Sununu has Smith beat by at least 2 standard deviations, maybe three.
Is there some kind of a contest going on as to who can repeat this lie the most times? I'm just wondering, because the polls do not support this assertion.
And, no, I don't have a horse in this race.
The blame for this lies with Bob Smith, not Sununu.
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