You are exactly correct. Simon is a weak candidate. I've heard him on talk radio here in the S.F. Bay Area and he comes across as a lightweight. Even the local conservative radio hosts seem to have lost hope for him. He rarely strays from the prepared "Davis is bad" mantra from his handlers. When pinned down for his specific beliefs on an issue, he comes across as an out-of-touch, squishy centrist. He deflects issues like immigration by saying "Its a federal issue" or "CA's diversity is its strength..."
Davis will win and continue to screw this state into the ground.
I heard Simon on a talk show (KFI radio in Los Angeles) earlier this evening, and that was exactly my impression. He was Mr. Dull, somewhat evasive in answering questions, and provided absolutely no reason for anyone to vote for him, other than that he wasn't Gray Davis. Of course, that's sufficient for a substantial minority of the electorate. But he already has their votes, and that's not a big enough slice of the voters to beat Davis.
As I've said before, this is the year a potted plant should have been able to beat Davis, even with all the millions in Davis' warchest. Instead the Republicans chose an unvetted amateur who looks like he's intent on failing the potted plant test.