[Arleigh]

OK, how much you would you like to wager that the US is not in a depression at the end of Bush's term?

The only thing that prevents me from taking your bet is that I'm not sure how to define "depression" in 2004. It's hard to imagine a government with unlimited power to create money allowing a 30's-style deflationary depression ever again. So there's the strong possibility of a 70's-style stagflationary depression with NOMINAL growth.

If I knew whether it will be a deflationary or inflationary depression, I'd be a millionaire in 10 years.

[jwalsh07]

A depression is generally acknowledged to be 20% negative growth. The Japanese have not even experienced a depression in their miserable economy these past years.

[eno_]

Bingo. If it hits the fan, it will be stagflation. I just signed a 6.25% 15 year fixed refi. At least I'll get half my house for free.

[#3Fan]

If I knew whether it will be a deflationary or inflationary depression, I'd be a millionaire in 10 years.

If you don't know, then why were you making your claims earlier?

[Travis McGee]

If I knew whether it will be a deflationary or inflationary depression, I'd be a millionaire in 10 years.

I have a great and novel idea! You bet one way, I'll bet the other, and in ten years we split 50-50! Ain't I a genius? Maybe we can call it something snappy like "Medium Term Capitol Management".