Replies

This isn't really a theory for your yellow chart, but last night dh and I were discussing this kidnapping, and he said that kidnappings of children are motivated by three things. 1. Revenge (which would probably result in the murder of the child) 2. Money (as far as we know, no ransom has been demanded) 3. "Some weird sexual thing" (that's exactly how dh phrased it LOL)

So as this case pertains to ES, we can probably eliminate #2 as a motivation, unless she was murdered before a ransom demand could be made.

Revenge? We really can only speculate. We don't have any business or financial records of the Smarts; those might provide clues of a business deal gone bad, debts, blackmail, etc. We know that Ricci was fired by Ed, but that was some time ago. Would someone like Ricci nurse a grudge that long and choose kidnapping/murder as revenge?

The sexual thing. Possibly. I've wondered if ES's somewhat high profile during the Olympics might have attracted the attention of some creep or creeps. Was Ricci attracted to her? Was it *her* jewelry and perfume that he originally stole?

Are there additional motivations we didn't think of? Can we make a chart of motivations and then, for each motivation, possible perpetrators?

For the most part it seems that this case has dropped almost completely from the public eye. I don't live in Utah so there may be local stories there that are still making the news. When was the last time the Utah police held a press conference? Dh thinks they have absolutely no idea where Elizabeth is or what happened to her, and that's the reason for their low profile. I tend to agree.

Good idea. I'll try to get something like that put together tonight. We have discussed other possibilities here on FR i.e. a burglary gone bad. If the perp ran into Elizabeth he might think he had to take the only witness with him. The sub-plot that I believe is most credible is that Ricci and his cronies were looking for a big score. An $1800 bank job - split 3 ways - is hardly worth the effort. If they planned on kidnapping her for ransom and within 4 or 5 hours of the abduction (7:21am), there is a nationwide manhunt going with Amber/Rachel alerts, national media and FBI involvement, that changes the whole picture. What seemed like a get rich quick scheme, suddenly became VERY high risk. They no longer had a way to communicate with Ed Smart that wasn't likely to be bugged or traced to them. They might decide to cut their losses and not even bother to risk a ransom request, which might backfire on them.

Another avenue that needs to be explored is that it appears that the perp and ES walked away from the residence. Where did they go? That probably means a vehicle with another perp waiting for them. Most likely they walked to the hospital lot nearby. That raises what I call the "Fred" issue. Fred was the security guard who called police about vehicles he had seen in the hospital lot and provided the tape. The plot thickens at that point, though, because Fred knew Ricci while he was a guard at the prison. That is an astronomical coincidence in my book. Why is Fred working there instead of the prison, which probably paid more. Was he fired for some reason? If he was involved, he possibly could have created a fake tape days or weeks before which he could have fed the police, which would shift the time and show the wrong vehicles.

It is also possible the perps could have been in radio contact. A pair of very good walkie talkies with headphones can be had for $100, with which someone outside would be able to act as a lookout. Fred was in a great position to be a lookout. If I were the FBI I would be culling NSA radio/cell phone communications during a 6 hour window around the abduction.