Goldman strategist sees rising stocks

CBS MarketWatch ^ | July 21, 2002 | Goldman strategist sees rising stocks (Cohen Alert)

[SauronOfMordor]

The Asian markets just started trading a half hour ago. South Korea's index is down 3.37%, New Zealand down 2.18, Japan down 2.04%

The week is off to a bad start

[wardaddy]

Good points but I hope you are wrong....aside from the notable exceptions like AOL, WorldCom and Enron, most of the S&P is still reporting profits and indeed most are higher than for the same period last year. Are we to return to a market based on P/E in the 8-12 range like in the 70s? I don't know but with interest rates so low and debt rates paying hardly squat, I don't think we will. It would appear that many folks and institutions have simply gone to cash and are waiting. I know some have gone to gold based or bond indexed havens but that is not reflective of the average 401K investor or mutual fund manager. We now live in a world of very large hedge fund players who give an artificial momentum to a bear market(or a panic too for that matter) which simply did not exist 20 or 30 years ago. Also, inflation is virtually nil or item specific. I would agree that the P/Es of the 90s were foolish and the stock prices reflected expectations (or subscribers) more than reality. That we are correcting this after the Tech Bubble Burst is not suprising yet as I'm sure you know, Microsoft has weathered all of this better than most and yet their P/E is still quite high....around 50 I think. I still say that psychology and media frenzy over the few disgraced companies is aside from the unexpected nature of terrorism our greatest liability.

In any event, I'm hoping for a stable close by tommorow afternoon. It should be an interesting morning. Back when I was a daily investor, I learned that the market usually recovered when I panicked. This time I'm not so sure but I feel almost certain that as Churchill said "It's the end of the beginning" at least.

[hinckley buzzard]

Very interesting piece of real world data. I trust this kind of observation far more than the bloviations of a bought huckster.

Keep us informed, please, on whether the bidding drought continues. It would says more about "consumer confidence" than the UofM does.

[gaspar]

I had not seen this 2001 report (by that time, frankly, I was leery of tech stocks) and would only say that she backed computer and computer software stocks, not all tech stocks.

[rohry]

...and my reply to dalereed was removed because why?

[dalereed]

I'm sure he made a mistake, lets try it again. I sure didn't see anything that should gotten it removed.

To be honest, I don't even think that sink owns any stock...

[cinFLA]

I'm not sure what you are referring to. Maybe the P/E assumption? I have no emotional attachment to "my" theory. If I have a wrong P/E assumption, I want to know about it ASAP because I have hard-earned cash at stake, just like everybody else does.

Hint. Interest rates are really down and the economy is improving, although slowly. Employment is rather strong.

[Soren]

Not sure why you think employment is strong. Interest rates may be low, but it's not having the usual effect because businesses already have too much debt. As for the improving economy, I stated my view on this thread in Reply # 18.

[StockAyatollah]

Sorry, but anyone who thinks that employment is strong has not looked for a job lately, at least in the IT or engineering sector. The only real hiring going on is in defense, and even that is soft and limited to those with active clearances.

[JoeGar]

The S&P 500 P/E is 34. The historical average is 15.

I agree. With earnings still fairly strong, the market remains oversold.