Posted on 07/21/2002 6:32:10 AM PDT by GailA
Wharton solidly ahead 11 days out By Michael Erskine erskine@gomemphis.com July 20, 2002
Democrat A C Wharton holds a commanding lead in the race for Shelby County mayor, a new poll shows - though a sizable bloc of voters remains undecided with two weeks left.
The Commercial Appeal/News Channel 3 poll, conducted July 14-17, found Wharton the favorite of 46 percent of voters compared to Republican George Flinn with 27 percent.
Those who were waffling or had no opinion registered at 23 percent. Three independent candidates split 3 percent. "Obviously this is a very significant lead that Wharton has," said pollster Steve Ethridge of Ethridge & Associates, the Cordova-based marketing and research firm that conducted the survey of 600 Shelby County registered voters. "The only way Flinn can win this thing is to become very aggressive in the next two weeks. . . . He would have to pick up all of the undecided votes."
That's not likely, Ethridge said, since many of those who are undecided won't vote at all. And overcoming a 19-point gap by Aug. 1 is a real long shot, he said.
The poll, which has a margin of error of 4 percentage points, found that Wharton has drawn his support from a more diverse population than Flinn - 30 percent of white voters supported Wharton, an African-American, vs. 4 percent of black voters for Flinn, who is white.
In addition, Wharton did better in Flinn's core base of county voters and Republicans than Flinn did in Wharton's base - city voters and Democrats.
Wharton, the longtime county public defender, said the poll numbers were encouraging but remained guarded in his optimism. Wharton said what's important now is to get his supporters to the voting booths, calling a new effort beginning this week "Operation Turn Up the A C." "We're going to push to get as many people out to vote early because those are votes that you have in the bank," he said.
Wharton, who said he'd continue to target a diverse population of voters, said he plans to stay with a positive message down the stretch.
Flinn's campaign refused a request by a reporter to interview Flinn, a radiologist and radio station owner, for this story.
But campaign manager Cary Rodgers released the following prepared statement:
"George Flinn believes that the most important poll is from the voters on August 1. George Flinn also knows taxpayers need more accountability from their elected officials. "We, however, find great irony in this poll. Our opponent, in this newspaper, has stated he supports a state income tax. The Memphis Commercial Appeal has editorialized in favor of a state income tax. This poll on behalf of the newspaper was taken by Governor Don Sundquist's pollster. Governor Sundquist supports a state income tax.
"The voters want new leaders and fresh ideas not fuzzy math and taxes."
Ethridge said Flinn's attack on the poll was nothing more than a political maneuver.
"The implication of what he's saying is that we somehow biased this poll in favor of Wharton. Nothing could be further from the truth," Ethridge said.
"My reputation speaks for itself. People that know me know I do scientific, objective polls."
Ethridge said he has done work for Sundquist but is not on retainer.
"I do work with him occasionally on an as-needed basis," he said.
Michael Nelson, a Rhodes College political science professor, said Wharton's large lead does not surprise him at all.
But since the poll did not screen for likely voters, Nelson said the key to Election Day will be turnout.
"The challenge for A C is to turn out his supporters. He has a lead but there's still an enormous amount of work to be done to get his supporters to the polls," he said.
Nelson said a recent Flinn TV ad - one that harshly criticizes the taxpayer-funded downtown arena project - is a sign Flinn knows he's got significant ground to make up.
"It's kind of a Hail Mary pass. He's transformed himself into a kind of anti-establishment populist," Nelson said.
"The idea is that there are enough anti-establishment votes to be gained in both parties to move the numbers in his favor. I don't think it's a very good strategy, but it may be the best strategy he has."
East Memphian Donald Winfield, a poll participant, has seen the Flinn arena ad and couldn't agree more.
"We're just throwing tax money at projects. I can't find words to tell you how appalled I am at that situation."
Winfield, 61, a retired computer programmer, said he's supporting Flinn because the Republican has promised to keep taxes low.
"I have more government than I can afford, need, want and use," he said.
Meanwhile, Ike Griffith of Whitehaven said he's behind Wharton because the Democrat will be an advocate for education.
"He's running a clean campaign and he's talking about the issues that concern us all," said Griffith, 43, who works for Memphis City Schools. "He's going to be a mayor for all the people."
IF YOU THINK YOUR PROPERTY TAXES ARE HIGH NOW, THAT CRIME IS OUT OF CONTROL, THAT THE COUNTY SCHOOLS SYSTEM WILL SOON RESEMBLE MEMPHIS' FAILLING SCHOOLS, JUST LET KING WILLIE'S PUPPET AC WHARTON AND THE DEMON-RATS TAKE CONTROL OF SHELBY COUNTY.
THE DEMON-RATS ARE BUSING IN THE DEAD, 10 YEAR OLDS,AND THE MENTALLY ILL,JUST LIKE THEY DID ON O2 TO GET ALBORE ELECTED. THE DEMON-RATS SEE THIS AS A REAL BIG CHANCE TO TAKE OVER SHELBY COUNTY. BOTH THE MAYOR'S OFFICE AND THE SHERIFF'S OFFICE.
IF YOU HAVEN'T EARLY VOTED, PLEASE DO SO, AND TAKE A FEW FRIENDS TO THE POLLS WITH YOU.
IF king willie takes control of the county, the schools will go to He!!, crime rate will sky rocket, basic services will be non existant like they are in every area he has confiscated through annexation. Within weeks of taking over Hickory Hills the crime went out the roof and has kept climbing simply because there is no "real" police presence there anly longer. You have a hard time getting your trash picked up. Try finding a cop when you need one. Gangs are out of control in Memphis.
Leave Detroit....err...Memphis/Shelby County now.
REPUBLICANS UNITE ! DON'T TAKE FLIGHT -- FIGHT !!
The famous blue / red, county-by-county post-election map from 2000 shows this trend as clear as day.
Let the parasites have their garbage dumps - - get out and strengthen an area that deserves strengthening.
I live in Nashville, this ain't Shangri-La.
"Memphis has turned into a 3rd world city and when the county goes too, its all over. Taxes go up every 2 years in the city and county, and now the state of TN itself is starting to melt down."
As long as Democrats and RINOs control this state, it will stay that way. Hopefully Gov. Hilleary and an authentic GOP legislative majority will start to undo the damage caused by these cretins.
"I'm not gonna just up and run away but I am definitely open to going elsewhere. I was born in Memphis and have lived here most of my 40 years, but sometimes reality says its time to move on!"
Maybe we ought to try a new tack for a change, having GOP-leaning suburbanites FLOOD back into the cities (rather than further out into the sticks) and taking them back in the name of sanity. Our great cities have suffered long enough !
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