Unlike Japan, China's economic potential is not limited by population size. Japan's per-capita GDP today, even after 10 years of recession, is still the highest in the world at $39,000, higher than even America's. For Japan's GDP to have surpassed America's in the early 1990's, Japan's per-capita GDP would have had to have been about $45,000+, which is too much to ask for. Japan's population is 130 mil. while China's is 10 times bigger. The 100 mil. richest Chinese living in China's largest cities already enjoy living standards on par with Taiwan or S. Korea. With each passing decade, another 100 mil. or so will attain this standard of living.
Translation: "Screw them.. I mean, this is your 401K we are talking about here!"
When the China "reunification" happens (sometimes refered to as an invasion, but never by politicians, diplomats or investors) you will see a whole bunch of people generating random excuses to just let it happen and shut up about it.
And the real world scenario?
I'm not concerened with their "rise" as much as I am about what price I have to pay for it.
Maybe. Presently, China has about 900 million peasants who are not allowed to move off their poor plots of land. Taxes are rising and the peasants can barely afford to live in a good year. They were promised government help that never materialized and they're angry. Large numbers of them sneak into Beijing and other cities as "illegals" and work for almost slave wages. Huge unrest fermenting.
I agree that the future is going to belong to Asia. The 20th century was ours, and perhaps half of the 21st, but Asia has been on the ascendant for decades and China will get it right....at this time, it combines the worst elements of capitalism and communism, but if they are smart enough to grow a solid middle class, they'll succeed in being the dominant political and economic power in the world. To which I can only add, they're better than the Arabs by a long shot.
Isn't the name FORBES kind of familiar ? Good ol' Steve, who wanted to be President-but was pretty much laughed off the ballot ?
Is this the kind of crap he espouses ?
That is an asinine statement.
How many drips said the same thing about the former Soviet Union?
There are a million and one different things that could occur to short circuit any "rise" by the Chinese. And as is usually the case with socialist countries.....whatever holds them back will be self inflicted.
Where did you get your GDP data? The CIA WORLD FACTOBOOK and OTHER SOURCES document per capita GDP of the US is $36,200 (#2 behind Luxembourg's $36,400) while Japan's is in 14th place at $24,900.
Neville Chamberlain, is that you?
It is inevitable and should be viewed as a threat like everything else. Mark Lewis might be from a different planet where creatures in Nature don't eat each other.
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Together the United States, E.U., and Japan received about 88 percent of China’s total exports in 2000, and took over 90 percent their exports in manufactured goods.
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Investment and China’s Rise as an Exporting Platform - Throughout the 1990s, FDI flows into China, which have been primarily concentrated in the manufacturing sector, helped China become a world center for manufacturing and continue to have a significant impact on China’s export-led growth. The Commission has reviewed a study reporting that over 90 percent of FDI into China was for the establishment of new businesses, while over 90 percent of the FDI into the United States was for acquisition of existing U.S. businesses.5
The share of exports to the United States produced by foreign-invested firms has steadily increased over the last decade and a half. China required export performance as part of its investment agreements with foreign firms. In 1985, foreign-invested firms produced 1percent of China’s exports. In 1990, they produced 12.5 percent, and in 2000 48 percent.6 Researchers at the New York Federal Reserve Bank estimate that only 20 percent of China’s total imports reach China’s domestic markets, while the other 80 percent consist of capital goods and industrial inputs used for the country’s exporting zones.7
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Currency Manipulation - The exchange rate of the Chinese yuan (or Renminbi) to the dollar is also an important contributing factor to the U.S. deficit. While the United States has a free-floating exchange rate in which official intervention is both rare and done in small amounts, China holds a soft peg to the dollar with its currency nonconvertible on the capital account. In 2001, despite the country’s $23 billion global trade surplus and FDI inflow of $46.8 billion, China maintained its soft peg. China accomplishes this through large official purchases of dollars in order to maintain an exchange rate lower than would otherwise occur by market forces alone. By holding down the exchange rate, China gains an unfair trade advantage that increases the U.S. trade deficit beyond what the market would dictate. Ernest H. Preeg, Senior Fellow in Trade and Productivity at the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, who testified before the Commission in May 2001, wrote in his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee in May 2002:
Based on the IMF definition, China has clearly been manipulating its currency for mercantilist purposes. The Bank of China has made protracted large scale purchases of foreign exchange- $150 billion since 1995- in order to maintain a large trade surplus as an offset to poor growth performance in the domestic [Chinese] economy.16