China's Rise Is Inevitable -- So Deal With It

Forbes Magazine ^ | 6-28-02 | Mark Lewis

[AIG]

NEW YORK - A decade ago it was Japan that touched off nationalistic fears among Americans who worry about being out-competed by Asian industrialists. Now it is China's turn to generate the scare stories. The reflex cannot be helped, but nor should it be indulged in any policy sense. China's rise is inevitable and should not be viewed as a threat.

Consider this front-page story in today's New York Times: "China Emerges as Rival to U.S. in Asian Trade." That sort of headline will become commonplace in the next few years as China increases its dominance of East Asia's economy. Yet at the same time, U.S. exporters will benefit from the growth of China's internal market, and U.S. consumers will benefit by buying China's low-priced and increasingly high-quality exports.

China's rise does call for an adaptive response from Washington, which must find a graceful way to accommodate itself to the new regional superpower. But in terms of trade, the key policy already is in place--China was last year ushered into the World Trade Organization, under whose auspices this formerly closed society will be fully integrated into the global economy.

Of course, there's still the little matter of Taiwan, which the U.S. is pledged (in vague terms) to defend. The best-case scenario: China's embrace of capitalism forces it to evolve into a full-fledged democracy, as people who gain economic control over their lives insist on political control as well. If that happens, Taiwan will end up clamoring to merge with the mainland in order to avoid the fate of China's other small neighbors, which will find themselves overshadowed by the revitalized Middle Kingdom.

Let's minimize the hand-wringing over this situation. Would anybody seriously prefer that China had remained shackled to the Maoist precepts that kept its economy small and weak? In any case, that's not an option. China's emergence is a fact to be recognized rather than fretted over. And it is also an opportunity, because America with its flexible economic system is well positioned to adapt to new realities and benefit from them.

The supposed threat from Japan generated a lot of concern in the early '90s, yet nowadays the scare headlines are all about Japan's economic decline, which is seen as bad for the United States. If China's economy runs into serious trouble, that too will be bad news for America.

But China, even if it stumbles along the way, is a much better bet than Japan to eventually achieve regional dominance, both politically and economically. This will make some Americans nervous. They may as well start getting used to the idea now--and make plans to take advantage of it.

[PoisedWoman]

. With each passing decade, another 100 mil. or so will attain this standard of living.

Maybe. Presently, China has about 900 million peasants who are not allowed to move off their poor plots of land. Taxes are rising and the peasants can barely afford to live in a good year. They were promised government help that never materialized and they're angry. Large numbers of them sneak into Beijing and other cities as "illegals" and work for almost slave wages. Huge unrest fermenting.

I agree that the future is going to belong to Asia. The 20th century was ours, and perhaps half of the 21st, but Asia has been on the ascendant for decades and China will get it right....at this time, it combines the worst elements of capitalism and communism, but if they are smart enough to grow a solid middle class, they'll succeed in being the dominant political and economic power in the world. To which I can only add, they're better than the Arabs by a long shot.

[AIG]

As long as Taiwan doesn't declare independence, it's very unlikely China will invade at all. The US doesn't want Taiwan to declare independence either because it leads to all sorts of other problems. If the US supported Taiwan's independence, then the US would be going back on its own word. China would invade Taiwan and there would be a war and the US could intervene but will do so having broken its word about not supporting Taiwanese independence.

[DBtoo]

I couldn't agree with you more.

And there's the problem over there of the sex ratio. Because of their one-child policy, there are many more males than females as a result of selective abortion and infanticide of baby girls. Whenever a country has too many males to females, war is inevitable.

[Jhoffa_]

As long as Taiwan doesn't declare independence, it's very unlikely China will invade at all.

They keep rattling the sabers though.. and rememeber the leadership is arrogant to a fault and possibly waiting for us to become overextended.

We shall see...

But none of this answers my question.. What would you do?

[AIG]

Those 900 mil. peasants have it bad, but 20 years ago over 90% of China's population were peasants but today that figure is just about 67% of China's population (800-900 mil.). In another 20 years, that figure might drop to below 50% of China's population, as economic reforms and the process of urbanization continue. As China's peasant population has decreased over the past 20 years, the number of city-dwellers has increased and some of the city-dwellers have become very rich. Urbanization is associated with increasing wealth and standard of living. 100 years ago, America's own population was 67% rural but now is 67% urban. As industrialization in agriculture grows, fewer people are needed to work on farms so they move to cities and find city jobs.

[DBtoo]

With so many consumer goods made in China these days, there isn't much of a opportunity to buy American.

[AIG]

Northeast Asia is a very economically important part of the world. Having a nuclear war there because of the issue of Taiwan is foolhardy. Given the likelihood that Taiwan would eventually become politically integrated with the mainland anyway, just as it is now becoming economically integrated and dependent on the mainland, it would be best not to make a big fuss over China's invading it. The heart of Taiwan, the basis for its "economic miracle" and the basis for its middle-class population and democracy, is Taiwan's hi-tech businesses and they're moving voluntarily to the mainland anyway, so what's the point of saving something that's gonna join China eventually anyway and losing its economic importance as well?

[Jhoffa_]

Given the likelihood that Taiwan would eventually become politically integrated with the mainland anyway, just as it is now becoming economically integrated and dependent on the mainland, it would be best not to make a big fuss over China's invading it.

Make no mistake.. I am completely, totally opposed to this.

But I do respect your honesty and frankness. No hiding no couching of terms.. No avoidance or playing obtuse.

[Jhoffa_]

PS: Many other FReepers with unpopular views could take a lesson from you and let their arguments both be fully known AND stand on their own merits.

[SamBees]

Sure it is! Walmart buys billions of China's prison labor made products.

[arm958]

Frankly speaking, I find Chinese to be some of the least arrogant and most down-to-earth people I've ever had the pleasure of meeting.

Tell that to the millions of Chinese women who continue to have their unborn children forcibly killed by the state.

[AIG]

Thank you for your kind words. I appreciate them.

[arm958]

America probably has 100 times the missiles pointed at China as China has pointed at America. By your reasoning, China has reason to be concerned about America.

The obvious flaw in your premise is that you are morally equating us and them. For decades, we have had complete military/nuclear weapons superiority over the chicoms, but we never attacked them. If the tables are turned, all bets are off.

[Jhoffa_]

Good...

Now don't invade taiwan or I will pour a bucket of scorpions in your bedroom window..

[AIG]

China's one-child policy hasn't been all that effective. In the past 20 years, the period when the one-child policy has been in effect, China's population has increased by 300 mil., which is bigger than the entire US population! China's population today is still growing by 1% a year or 13 mil. new Chinese a year. China could have never developed a 1.3 bil. population if it was killing off its own citizens. As for sex selection, that's always been the case in China and most other Asian countries. Nevertheless, Asian males always found females to marry or else Asia's overall population would not be as big as it is today.

[arm958]

Whenever a country has too many males to females, war is inevitable.

Is there historical prcedent for your blanket statement? Until the last decade or so, I can't think of any civilization/country that ever had more males than females in any statistically significant numbers. Selectively killing both unborn and newly born females is a recent phenomenon in China; it's a direct consequence of their "one child" policy.

[AIG]

Even the smallest country in the world, Brunei, has a military. If the smallest country in the world can have a military, why can't China? It's not about moral equivalence but about the basic fact that most every country on earth, big or small, has a military. Every country has self-defense needs, whether you think they're morally unworthy or not. In addition, througout history most economic powers, which China is becoming, have been military powers as well, merely to protect their economic interests around the world. The bigger your economy is, the bigger your worldwide economic interests will be, for which you need a big military to protect them all. I don't see the US and China fighting any wars now or in the future because as the eventual co-economic superpowers of the world in an era of globalization, they have too many mutually beneficial economic interrelationships to want to spoil it all by having a war.

[AIG]

What I mean by "economic interrelationships" is such things as US car companies envision that in 20 years or so, China will be the world's largest car market. China may be by then the largest market for a lot of US industries. Then, in that situation, would the US want to have a war with a country which generates most of the revenues for America's own biggest corporations? It would hurt America's own interests to have such a war. Likewise, it would go against China's interests to go to war with America when American corporations are contributing so much to China's economy.

[arm958]

Well, since you put it that way, I suppose I can overlook the chicom penchant for murdering their young girls (both born and unborn). After all, we're talking money here. [sarcasm off]

[AIG]

If China were killing off all its girls, its population couldn't keep growing today but it's still growing! I read the NY Times article about how Chinese boys were outnumbering girls, but of the 300 mil. Chinese born in the last 20 years, 140 mil. of them were females! 140 mil. females is as big as the entire US female population, and these 140 mil. females were born in just the last 20 years. There's not really a shortage of females in China to prevent China's overall population from continuing to grow.