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China's Rise Is Inevitable -- So Deal With It
Forbes Magazine ^ | 6-28-02 | Mark Lewis

Posted on 07/19/2002 10:29:32 PM PDT by AIG

NEW YORK - A decade ago it was Japan that touched off nationalistic fears among Americans who worry about being out-competed by Asian industrialists. Now it is China's turn to generate the scare stories. The reflex cannot be helped, but nor should it be indulged in any policy sense. China's rise is inevitable and should not be viewed as a threat.

Consider this front-page story in today's New York Times: "China Emerges as Rival to U.S. in Asian Trade." That sort of headline will become commonplace in the next few years as China increases its dominance of East Asia's economy. Yet at the same time, U.S. exporters will benefit from the growth of China's internal market, and U.S. consumers will benefit by buying China's low-priced and increasingly high-quality exports.

China's rise does call for an adaptive response from Washington, which must find a graceful way to accommodate itself to the new regional superpower. But in terms of trade, the key policy already is in place--China was last year ushered into the World Trade Organization, under whose auspices this formerly closed society will be fully integrated into the global economy.

Of course, there's still the little matter of Taiwan, which the U.S. is pledged (in vague terms) to defend. The best-case scenario: China's embrace of capitalism forces it to evolve into a full-fledged democracy, as people who gain economic control over their lives insist on political control as well. If that happens, Taiwan will end up clamoring to merge with the mainland in order to avoid the fate of China's other small neighbors, which will find themselves overshadowed by the revitalized Middle Kingdom.

Let's minimize the hand-wringing over this situation. Would anybody seriously prefer that China had remained shackled to the Maoist precepts that kept its economy small and weak? In any case, that's not an option. China's emergence is a fact to be recognized rather than fretted over. And it is also an opportunity, because America with its flexible economic system is well positioned to adapt to new realities and benefit from them.

The supposed threat from Japan generated a lot of concern in the early '90s, yet nowadays the scare headlines are all about Japan's economic decline, which is seen as bad for the United States. If China's economy runs into serious trouble, that too will be bad news for America.

But China, even if it stumbles along the way, is a much better bet than Japan to eventually achieve regional dominance, both politically and economically. This will make some Americans nervous. They may as well start getting used to the idea now--and make plans to take advantage of it.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: china; chinastuff
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To: Willie Green
We have an honest to goodness, real live china trade fiend over here.
21 posted on 07/19/2002 11:14:10 PM PDT by Jhoffa_
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To: Jhoffa_
most arrogant race

Frankly speaking, I find Chinese to be some of the least arrogant and most down-to-earth people I've ever had the pleasure of meeting.

22 posted on 07/19/2002 11:14:24 PM PDT by AIG
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To: AIG

That's why they crush protesters with tanks and gather on the shore to hiss at capitalism and liberty.

23 posted on 07/19/2002 11:16:00 PM PDT by Jhoffa_
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To: Jhoffa_
Remember, it was 66% of the House Republicans who voted for China MFN the last time around vs. only 51% of the Democrats. And George W. is the guy who signed off on China's WTO entry, which gave China permanent most-favored nation status. The Republicans have been the best friends China could have over the years.
24 posted on 07/19/2002 11:16:25 PM PDT by AIG
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To: AIG
The 16% poverty rate comes from the CIA World Fact Book.

Hasn't the CIA repeatedly demonstrated that there info about closed countries is guess work -- usually wrong guesswork.

25 posted on 07/19/2002 11:17:29 PM PDT by happytobealive
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To: AIG
Don't remind me.. I nearly need prozac as it is reliving that episode.
26 posted on 07/19/2002 11:17:35 PM PDT by Jhoffa_
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To: Jhoffa_
hiss at capitalism???? Chinese are as or more capitalist-minded as Americans these days.
27 posted on 07/19/2002 11:18:03 PM PDT by AIG
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To: DoughtyOne; Tancredo Fan
Here it is.. in all it's splendor.

The doucheing of taiwan..

28 posted on 07/19/2002 11:20:07 PM PDT by Jhoffa_
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To: happytobealive
Perhaps, but anyone who's visited China's countrysides can plainly see that people are not starving. They have more than enough to eat and actually China exports a lot of food to the West and other countries in Asia.
29 posted on 07/19/2002 11:20:09 PM PDT by AIG
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To: AIG

Sure, as long as the PRC get's to play CEO..

But when those rogues on that island do it.. Ohhh!

30 posted on 07/19/2002 11:21:35 PM PDT by Jhoffa_
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To: AIG
The Republicans have been the best friends China could have over the years.

Maybe not BEST friends. Don't forget who told the Chinese how they could blow America up. Also, whose campaign was it the Chinese were contributing to?

31 posted on 07/19/2002 11:21:36 PM PDT by happytobealive
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To: AIG
OH! And btw.. I have a bone to pick with the Republican conspiracy on this..

Don't you DARE let farmers sell their crops to Cuba..

Heaven forbid we finance the enemy! (insert self righous indignation here)

32 posted on 07/19/2002 11:23:51 PM PDT by Jhoffa_
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To: AIG
Japan didn't/doesn't have nuclear warheads aimed at our cities.

That is all the difference in the world to me.
33 posted on 07/19/2002 11:25:16 PM PDT by DB
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To: Jhoffa_
The Taiwanese CEO's, as I mentioned before, are moving in droves to the mainland.
34 posted on 07/19/2002 11:31:23 PM PDT by AIG
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To: happytobealive
Whereas the Chinese allegedly had to bribe Clinton to be pro-China trade, the Republicans voted for China MFN completely voluntarily! I'm sure the Fortune 500, merely in doing business with China, is handing all sorts of technologies to China that have some military application or other. For instance, merely by helping to grow China's semiconductor industry, Intel is helping China's nuclear program because supplying a kep component -- chips.
35 posted on 07/19/2002 11:34:14 PM PDT by AIG
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To: AIG

And that's fine.. Just don't tote them over on gunboats please..

Thank you.

36 posted on 07/19/2002 11:35:19 PM PDT by Jhoffa_
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To: DB
America probably has 100 times the missiles pointed at China as China has pointed at America. By your reasoning, China has reason to be concerned about America.
37 posted on 07/19/2002 11:35:48 PM PDT by AIG
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To: Jhoffa_
Taiwanese CEO's are moving to the mainland voluntarily.
38 posted on 07/19/2002 11:37:00 PM PDT by AIG
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To: DB

Oh come on.. Nukes, schmukes..

I mean, this is the stock market we are talking about here..

Just sell taiwan down the river and everything will surely be fine.

39 posted on 07/19/2002 11:37:11 PM PDT by Jhoffa_
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To: AIG
You said the magic word..

But don't point a gun at them.. ah, AH..

Because we wouldn't like that.

40 posted on 07/19/2002 11:38:20 PM PDT by Jhoffa_
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