The writer admits it's speculation - - - but a hunch based on experience and common sense. Do you REALLY think a stock market crash (which is the only way to describe the 20 percent - or more drop this year) isn't gonna affect a lot of people's outlooks. I, for one, was a big Bush backer - and will vote for him again if he's the GOP standard bearer in 04 - - but I'm disgusted at his paltry and slow-motion tax cuts, and his wimpiness on a hundred other issues.
He speculates:
substantially increased the likelihood…
is much more likely…
voters are likely…
Democrats are likely…
The risk for the Republicans is…
If they do, they might decide…
Even if GOP voters…
could depress Republican turnout...
could be enough…
could well be on the defensive…
could give the president…
would, of course, relieve…
If Bush's job approval…
it could increase…
would increase the odds…
could be muted…
couldn't be good news…
And concludes:
The bottom line is clear.