Posted on 07/19/2002 8:56:28 AM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
For those who believe it is a bit too early to talk about the 2004 presidential race, click away now, because this week we're devoting space to the very early jockeying that's already taking place for the 2008 presidential race.
We'd pick Frist above the rest of these folks as the most likely Cheney replacement in '04. Believe it or not, there is maneuvering, especially among Republicans, for 2008. This activity is not overt, and the candidates would steadfastly deny their current actions have anything to do with future White House aspirations. But it's there.
For instance, in yesterday's edition of The Hotline, we had not one, but three stories that best belonged in a section entitled "White House 2008."
Among the three Republicans who qualified for the section:
New York Gov. George Pataki (R), who is scheduled to deliver the keynote address at a major New Hampshire GOP dinner this Friday.
Attorney General John Ashcroft, who, according to the New Yorker's Jeffrey Toobin, is rumored to be interested in running himself and is thought to be on the short list of potential replacements for Vice President Dick Cheney, should health concerns keep Cheney off the ticket.
Massachusetts gubernatorial candidate Mitt Romney (R), who is being accused by Democrats of using his current campaign as a stepping stone to national office. What makes 2008 interesting already for many Republicans is the fact that for the first time since '68 (though some may argue '80), there will be no obvious heir apparent or front-runner. The GOP nomination fight in '08 will be as open as the Democratic White House race was '88 and '92.
Potential 2008 GOP candidates can be divided into four categories:
Rumored '04 Cheney replacements
The generally ambitious
Those who bear the last name of Bush and happen to be governing the nation's fourth-largest state.
The 2002 Gubernatorial Candidates: For those wondering why this year's governor races are so important to the Washington establishment, it is because of the mere fact that tomorrow's presidents are running for today's governorships. Four of the last five presidents were governors or former governors when they won the White House. A look at the potential crop of presidential candidates born out of this year's governor races (all are potential candidates, of course, if they win this year):
Romney: Any pro-life Republican who wins a statewide race in one of the most liberal states in the union would have to be considered someone destined for national stardom. Add the fact that Romney's the son of a prominent GOP family (his father ran for president), throw in his access to national money from his Olympic contacts, and Romney is a natural to be thought of for national office.
California GOP nominee Bill Simon: If Simon continues his upset tour of the state and knocks off Democrat Gray Davis this year, he'll immediately become a national player. Again, Simon's a player only if he wins; if he loses this year, the consolation prize may be a shot at knocking off Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer in 2004. That race would give Simon one more shot at national stardom.
Acting Texas Gov. Rick Perry: It seems as if the toughest thing to be these days is an acting governor. Politically, governors who assume office via ascension have a rough time winning their own terms outright. That's why if Perry does win election on his own, he could become a real factor in '08. Plus, the crop of Texas operatives residing in the current White House might be more comfortable riding a familiar horse in '08.
The One Republican Who Pulls The Big Upset: Every cycle, there's an incumbent governor who is shocked and loses. Whether it is a Republican who knocks off Bill Richardson in New Mexico or a Republican who comes from nowhere to win in Iowa or Georgia or somewhere else where Democrats are a heavy favorite, that person could be someone who has national appeal.
The Rumored Cheney Replacements: Despite the vigorous schedule he keeps, rumors of Cheney not running in '04 continue. While not as rampant as they were before Sept. 11, the whispers persist -- and with them comes speculation on who might replace him. Obviously, if Cheney didn't run again, whomever President Bush chose as his '04 running mate would automatically become the '08 front-runner, which makes getting inked within this storyline so important. In fact, the more cynical side of us believes GOP operatives use replacement Cheney rumors as a way to float interest their clients might have in running in '08.
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R): America's mayor is more popular than even George W. Bush in some states, and that popularity alone makes some Republicans salivate over the idea of a Bush-Giuliani ticket. We question whether Bush would actually tap Giuliani as a replacement because Giuliani can be unpredictable and a spotlight hog. Plus, Giuliani's liberal social views on abortion and gay rights would be a big problem for some conservatives.
Secretary of State Colin Powell: The most popular person within the Bush administration is still the secretary of state; whether he stays that way is another story. Trying to forge some sort of peace in the Middle East is a thankless job with huge downsides. Obviously, if Powell can lead the region to peace, then his star will be as shiny as anyone's in this country. But if he fails, like so many other good people before him, the veneer could begin to wear off. And there's always the question of whether Powell's really interested in any national office.
Ashcroft: The New Yorker piece was the first we'd heard of Ashcroft being floated as a potential Cheney replacement. There are upsides to Ashcroft as Bush's ticket-mate: He comes from a swing state (Missouri), and he's the face of the U.S. fight to put terrorists behind bars. But Ashcroft can be seen as divisive. In fact, even in the post-Sept. 11 partisan world, Ashcroft has received more than his fair share of partisan attacks. As for '08 interest, he almost ran for president in '00; obviously he's interested.
National Security Adviser Condi Rice: In the last few weeks, more has been written about a Bush-Rice ticket than any other '04 possibility. Lots of columnists like the idea of Bush breaking the gender and race barrier all in one pick. Symbolically, a pick of Rice could pay huge political dividends for Bush in '04. As for '08, we can't imagine her running without already being the sitting vice president. If she really is interested in elective office someday and doesn't become Bush's '04 running mate, then look for her to run for something on her own, possibly in California.
Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge: In the pre-homeland security days, then Pennsylvania Gov. Ridge was everyone's obvious backup VP. There may be no more important state in the '04 electoral college calculation than Pennsylvania. All that said, Ridge's star has faded a bit, thanks to what may have become the administration's most thankless job in the war on terrorism. Whether Ridge ever really had a chance in this job is unknown; the hurdles are still numerous and the bureaucracy immense. If taking this job was meant to be an audition for national office, then he may be failing, but the real question is whether anyone could have succeeded in this post.
Sen. Bill Frist, R-Tenn.: We'd pick Frist above the rest of these folks as the most likely Cheney replacement in '04. Frist is as safe and smart a pick as Bush could make. His bio is close to perfect: He comes from a swing state (Tennessee -- OK, a swing state only if Al Gore is Bush's '04 opponent), and his background isn't primarily politics but medicine -- which is an even greater asset with bioterrorism as a concern. Frist has even written a bioterrorism handbook, complete with a Lincoln-esque photo on the cover, called "When Every Moment Counts." As for '08, count Frist as interested regardless of whether he's vice president or a former senator by that time.
The Generally Ambitious: These are folks who seem to us to have the stamina to attempt a run for national office. Stamina is a nice way of saying ambition.
Pataki: he enjoyed toying with the idea of running in '00; count him as a go for '08 regardless of what happens in '02 or '06.
Environmental Protection Agency chief Christie Whitman: Of all the folks listed here, Whitman may be the least ambitious and least likely to actually run -- or even toy with a bid. We've always joked that she'd make a much better candidate in a Democratic presidential primary.
Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating (R): After supposedly getting thisclose to being picked in '00, Keating never even got the one job he would have been perfect for in the current Bush administration -- FBI director.
Virginia Sen. George Allen (R): The junior senator from Virginia is definitely someone who aspires to higher office, though he's young enough to wait until '12.
Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R): This one-time accidental Arkansas governor loves the spotlight. In fact, there aren't many governors who find more ways to get themselves national interviews than Huckabee. Whether it is living in a triple-wide trailer or promoting his wife's candidacy for statewide office, Huckabee has never shied away from a national broadcast camera.
Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson: Whether his stint as HHS secretary has been good for his national image is an open question, but Thompson is definitely someone who will at least toy with the idea of running in '08. In fact, definitely count Thompson as a White House candidate if he decides to challenge Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold (D) in '04.
Illinois Sen. Peter Fitzgerald (R): While not the most popular member of the Senate GOP caucus, coming from a battleground state like Illinois makes Fitzgerald a potential player. He first needs to win re-election in '04, which will be no small feat.
Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback (R): Anyone who doubts Brownback's ambition doesn't remember his decision in '96 to run for the U.S. Senate in the middle of his first term in Congress.
Oklahoma Sen. Don Nickles (R): If Nickles ends up as the Senate GOP leader in the next few years, that will automatically propel the Oklahoman onto the national scene.
Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel (R): A favorite of both the neo-conservatives and the McCainiacs, Hagel is as interesting of a potential candidate as there is on our list. He's smooth, smart and well-liked by his colleagues.
Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (R): Another rising star in the Senate GOP leadership is Pennsylvania's junior senator. Being a social conservative from a swing state has to give him at least an opening to think about '08.
Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): We can't imagine the '08 campaign without a legitimate woman candidate, and Hutchison could be very formidable, though the history of Texas senators in presidential primary politics is suspect.
Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R): No doubt the thought has crossed his mind once or twice that if he, and not his brother, had won in '94, it would be Jeb in the White House. As for his own ambitions, there is no consensus among those around Jeb about whether he's actually that interested. He really loves being a governor. If Jeb does have his eyes on the White House, his hopes rise and fall completely with the current president. If George W. remains fairly popular around the time of the '08 primaries, Jeb is a player; if W. is not popular, then Jeb's famous name is a problem. We doubt Jeb runs in '08, simply because the country just won't be ready for the idea of electing yet a third Bush. His next serious chance may be in '12; he's definitely young enough to wait that long.
We apologize in advance for leaving out your favorite '08 Republican, but we have to stop somewhere. Don't worry, Democrats, we'll be back on the '04 story next week.
by Chuck Todd April 10, 2002
Chuck Todd is editor of The Hotline, National Journal's daily briefing on politics. His e-mail address is ctodd@nationaljournal.com.
Please, no. Pleeeease, no, no, no. I admit Frist would be a good match with Bush, but that's a fault, not a virtue. Frist began with vague commitment to conservative principles, and has let his political philosophy and positions be determined by Washington staffers. He's a good man, but without any strong inherent principles. He couldn't do any damage as VP, but he would be a worse president than Bush the elder.
This coming January would fit in quite nicely with my plans.
FReegards...MUD
If the economy picks up and grows at about a 4% annual rate in 2004 and unemployment is about 5.0, Bush will win re-election and that will add to Rice's share of the vote in California. She won't run, though, for that seat as she will be preoccupied traveling the country with Bush as his ticketmate. Boxer will face the most conservative elected woman (and only Republican woman) in California-- Mary Bono-- instead and will lose to her.
That would tickle me pink, my FRiend...MUD
But what her friends remember is the story of a visit to Washington with her parents when she was 10. Gazing at the White House, the young Condoleezza announced that some day she would live there.
bump! A Bush-Rice 2004 and Rice-? 2008 bump!
FReegards...MUD
Mary Bono, R-Calif. "The reason we are here is because, unfortunately, the president of the United States lied to the American people and a federal grand jury and then he attempted to use the full power of the White House to cover it up."
"If you really believe this process will cause our nation irreparable harm, I ask you, for the good of the nation, to resign and spare our country a lengthy and divisive impeachment process."
"Another concern that is very scary is the effect the president's behavior will have on our national security. Just a few months ago, I found myself, along with many other Americans and even the media, wondering if our strike against terrorism was life imitating art or a genuine response to a terrorist organization. Just the thought that the possibility existed that the president was engaging in a 'Wag the Dog' scenario was chilling and profoundly disappointing. As a nation, we deserve better."
She's pretty conservative considering she represents part of California. She supports the display of the 10 commandments by state and local governments. She is opposed to partial birth abortion and believes that counseling should precede all abortion procedures. She's also opposed to RU-486. She thinks the minimum wage isn't too low. Her biggest accomplishment was a project for her district-- restoring the Salton Sea (a bill Sonny wrote).
She's telegenic and has the "for the children" mantra down pat that she uses against Democrats.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.