[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #30

Chinese government tried to push too fast ahead while holding onto vast territory and population. Apparently, the expectation of population and some ruling class is running ahead of what can be realistically done. It is the case of "Chinese irrational exhuberrance". People and institution do not change as fast as equipment and factory do.

[AIG]

What exactly are you talking about? I'm in China now and I don't see any signs of any imminent collapse. On the contrary, China's a lot more vibrant, thriving, and optimistic these days than most other places in the world. When I walk down a Shanghai street, it even makes Manhattan look slow and boring by comparison. On a fundamental economic basis, China's got all the ingredients to become an economic superpower -- labor, land, infrastructure, brains, capitalist culture, etc. Sure, China's economic path won't be a straight line up, but in developing economies do usually grow faster than already-developed countries because the big per-capita gap between these two classes of countries causes aggregate economic demand in developing countries to be that much more greater. As we speak, China is the #1 market in the world for cell phones, will hit #2 in PC's by next year, is #1 in elevators, light bulbs, air conditioners, refridgerators, and is predicted to be #2 in cars by 2010 and #1 by 2020. Ask any major corproation today where their fastest growing market is and it's likely to be China. The First World's markets for many products are already saturated so China's growing demand is the best thing in the world.