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To: AIG
Re #20

As a matter of fact, S. Korea's exposure to America these days is 20 % of all export volumes. Chinese portion is increasing, eclipsing American portion. It is true that, at the moment, the prevailing thought is that China will continue to grow as she did in last decade or so. But we all know that, even the growth comes in waves. Japan had its near-linear growth up until 1990, and stalled. S. Korea and other Asian contries went into same serious downturn in 1997. America claimed that it does not suffer problems of these economies. But it created its own financial bubbles bigger than any previous bubbles combined. In later part of 90's, China and America were the rage. But as in previous economies, the projection of growth is based on the assumption that it will contiune the same pace as previous years. We all know that it peaks at some point and retreats. S. Korean and Japanese businessmen suffers from the same euphoria as American businessmen, "China will grow unabated." They will push and push until they hit a wall. The same thing happened regarding America until quite recently. Businessmen all over the world could not imagine the American economy runs into serious problem. Businessmen are just susceptible to hypes and group-think as any ordinary folks.

24 posted on 07/14/2002 1:13:49 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
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To: TigerLikesRooster
Sure, all economies hit their saturation points, but with just a $1,000 per-capita GDP, China's still got a long way to go. Every economy's got its growth curve and China is still in the exponential growth phase while America, Japan, Europe, etc. hit their maturity phases long ago. China's just got a lot more room to run.
27 posted on 07/14/2002 1:38:55 AM PDT by AIG
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