Just a case of absolutely incredible coincidental bad luck perhaps?
Don't think jurors will see it that way.
On another site, I saw a mention made, about the improbability of having all of the items of evidence against Mr. Westerfield oocur together, if he is indeed innocent. It could be made into a mathematical calculation.
I guess you start with the absense and actual death of Danielle. Next: What is the "probability" the absense would occur within hours of DAW being at Dad's?
Going on, what is the probability that in addition, that this weekend DAW goes on a MH trip? Then the probability he goes alone. Then the probability he doesn't take his toys. Then the probability he goes to the Strand? The the probability he goes ALSO to the desert?
You continue with seemingly independent events, assigning a probability. Finally all of the probabilities are multiplied, to get a "combined probability."
When deliberating, the minds of many of us sort of do this, without all of the math calculations. The result might be what we label "common sense," or label "reason." Still others might call it "logic" (logic being a basis for mathematics, or vice versa).
As a downtime exercize, I highly recommend watching the movie "Twelve Angry Men" made during the 1950s, if memory serves me. The cast is awesome, and it illustrates dramatically how a jury reasons things through.
Perhaps it is overly dramatic, but it is good, nonetheless.