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I believe you are correct. Moreover, exotic ceramics have little value as shrapnel. Steel will do fine.

If this stuff is from a missile, I think it is from the joints of a continuous rod warhead. However I have no source that indicates that such materials are used in continuous rod warheads. I'm still working on that (not very actively).

But, if this is a correct inference, it takes us away from MANPADs, which are too small to carry that type of warhead. This is something I long believed: If it was terrorists, they used a boat. If they used a boat, they were not limited to a MANPAD missile. So the whole Stinger thing seemed like a red herring. On the other hand, if it was a friendly-fire incident, it would, of course, be a high-tech warhad on a larger missile.

Also, a continuous rod warhead would cut or break a plane in two. A Stinger might fatally damage a 747, but I think it would be unlikely to cause it to fail so totally before a single word could be uttered by the crew as to what had happened. It would be a perfect shot with a Stinger at the limits of its range.

If terrorists could acquire a SAM with a continuous rod wardhead at the time of TWA800, I think that is the probable answer. If not, I'd be forced to look at a friendly-fire incident.