Jordan an Option for U.S. Special Forces

Summary

A flurry of reports says the United States has deployed Special Forces to Jordan although there is no direct evidence yet that such troops are there. But Washington's belligerency toward Iraq -- and the strategic advantages of having U.S. forces in Jordan -- makes such a deployment a distinct possibility in the future.

Analysis

In a statement to the Jordanian daily Al Rai, Information Minister Mohammed Edwan denied there were American forces in Jordan preparing to carry out military operations against Iraq, Arabicnews Online reported July 1. Edwan was responding to an unconfirmed report in the Lebanese daily Al Safir that said U.S. troops were in the country.

Washington has for years developed military cooperation with Amman as part of its regional strategy, and there have been several indications in recent months that Jordan might become a base for U.S. military operations against Iraq. Russian military intelligence sources, as well as sources in Syria, say U.S. Special Forces are already in the country. If this is true, Washington could gain an invaluable source of information about Iraq for the duration of any future conflict.

On a strategic level, the United States may be hoping to capitalize on its strong relationship with the Jordanian monarchy to secure both Amman and Israel against an Iraqi push. The fear is that Baghdad would try to pre-empt a U.S. assault by invading Jordan and triggering a war with neighboring Israel. A deployment of U.S. Special Forces along Jordan's eastern border with Iraq would be well positioned to gather intelligence by conducting probes into Iraqi territory.

The United States has slowly built up military cooperation with Jordan over the last several years with an eye toward a second Iraqi campaign. Starting in the late 1990s, the United States gave the Jordanian air force 16 F-16s as part of a $215 million arms transfer package that Washington promised Amman in 1996, after the government signed its peace treaty with Israel.

The United States military also conducts exercises regularly with the Jordanian armed forces. In March, a detachment from the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) held a 10-day exercise called Infinite Anvil in Jordan. Involving a reported 100 Marines and sailors, the exercise included the movement of an AV-8B Harrier fighter detachment as well as the MEU's aviation element from the USS Wasp to the King Faisal Royal Jordanian Air Base in Al Jafr in southern Jordan.

Cooperation between the Jordanian military and U.S. Marines goes back years. For instance, the 11th MEU joined Jordan's Princess Basma 3rd Mechanized Battalion in 1998 for live-fire war games in the Qatranhan military zone about 55 miles south of Amman. The exercises, known as Infinite Moonlight, included nighttime battle training.

But from a strictly military standpoint, Jordan is not a good position from which to launch a major invasion. Since it is on the opposite side of the Syrian desert, away from the bulk of the Iraqi population, the only major Iraqi targets to which Jordan provides access a limited number of military installations. Launching a massive mechanized invasion would also leave the U.S. military vulnerable to an attack on its northern flank from Syria, and logistically all supplies would have to either be flown in or shipped up from the distant Red Sea port of Aqaba.

Tactically, however, Jordan could be used as a forward operating base for U.S. commando missions to shut down Scud air bases in western Iraq. The U.S. forces could be based at the Muafaq Salti Air Base in Azraq, 50 miles east of Amman on the road to Baghdad, or the King Faisal air base, with supplies and support coming from ships in Aqaba. Such a presence would counter Baghdad's ability to project power into Jordan and by extension threaten Israel.

The U.S. military would also be examining potential invasion routes and access points to Baghdad, including defining logistical requirements and supply needs and determining the condition of roads for a thrust across the border.

Finally, any American forces in Jordan would likely seek to gain intelligence on Iraqi military targets across the border -- including installations, patrols and command and control centers -- as well as identify and observe the potential infiltration of Iraqi agents and sympathizers in Jordan.

Washington's fears about Syria would also be eased since a U.S. presence in Jordan would serve as a deterrent against any Syrian involvement on the side of Iraq during another conflict against Baghdad.

No direct evidence confirms that U.S. Special Forces have deployed and are operating in Jordan. The reports in local media could easily be overblown, given the growing animosity between Washington and Baghdad and the close ties between Jordan and the United States. Still, the number of advantages to be had for a small commando force may make such a deployment, if not a reality now, a probability in the future.

I posted this on another thread but I'll post it here again because it seems a better place for it:

I saw mention of this elsewhere but couldn't get the Al Safir website to download in English. This is the second mention of this I've heard- US Troops coming out of Jordan to link up with the opposition in Iraq. Also read an article the other day about the US beefing up troops in Turkey, that more troops were landing in Incirlik every day. Special Ops maybe? There's a lot of rumors floating around about the opposition in Iraq. Maybe we're sliding operatives into the North to link up with these forces.

If you consider a few other developments- the recent resigning of Bush's terrorism adviser. He was the one advocating a swift attack of Iraq using SpecOps and air strike like we did in Afghanistan. Also, the big buildup of troops necessary to properly defeat Iraq would be a dead give away that we were about to kick off in Saddam's backside. I've been puzzling over a way to get around that as well as how to get around Kuwaiti and Saudi reluctance to let us attack from their territory. We've secured airbases in several key areas around the region like Georgia and Azerbajain and we have Special Forces in Georgia as well. We could probably launch a pretty effective surprise air offensive using these nations instead of Kuwait/Saudi for bases. The SpecOps guys could come in from places like Jordan, Turkey, Georgia and try to rally the oppostion and use them as ground troops with our Air Force for support. If you really wanted it to be a surprise it might make sense to have the General advocating this "resign" to make it look like the admin was displeased with this course of action when in fact it favored it.

Just throwing it out there. ;-) I like to speculate as much as the next guy but I've been puzzled by the lack of logistical buildup near Iraq so this is one way to explain that and keep me interested.

I meant to post some of these articles the other day but didn't have time. It's interesting though if you think that the Bush admin obvioulsy has to be grooming a trusty friend in the Middle East seeings how Saudi is the homeland of all the terrorists and how Kuwait and Saudi don't want to cooperate. If you put Jordan in the place of "Groomed Nation" some of these articles make some sense. Maybe Bush has promised Jordan long term prosperity in return for being a good reliable military ally.

Sankei Shimbun: Bush calls on Japan to cancel Jordanian debts From the Arabic News. Here's a good financial favor Bush is doing them.

Jordanian minister flayed over drive to boycott U.S. goods From the Gulf News. Anti US protestors and boycotters silenced.

Jordan hopes to become Arab center for tech From Silicon Valley.com-- the carrot of that Prosperity?

Jordan's King Abdullah II meets U.S. Air Force commander From Yahoo- JUN 18.

King Meets U.S. Commander General of The Central Command (Tommy Franks) from Jordan News Agency Petra Jun 26

Prince Faisal Meets British Defense Ministry Delegation- again, Petra. Discussing matters of "mutual concern".

US deploys soldiers, CIA agents in northern Iraq from Jordan: Beirut daily As posted on this forum from Agence Presse France.

Jordan denies press reports about U.S. military presence as part of preparations for attack on Iraq- from Albawaba

US troops in Iraq, says report

Then for recent stories on Turkey:

American reinforcement in Turkey for striking Iraq; Baghdad: dialogue with the UN will not bring back the inspectors - from the Arabic News

Iraq condemns Turkey's new mandate for 'no-fly zone' - from the Jordan Times

There was another article about Bush giving the go ahead for a big aid package to Jordan in the past week or so. All these things probably add up to nothing. But then again, maybe Bush decided he couldn't trust Saudi and that's why he's been getting tight with Pootie Poot Putin to make sure we've got a good source of oil if things get ugly with the Arabs. All this activity does seem kind of odd in Jordan as well. This would be such a perfect international relations coup d'etat for Dubya if this is what he's doing and even more so if we kick off in Saddam's hide on the 4th of July.

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