North-South Korea Clash Poses Biggest Problems for China

Summary

With the possible exception of South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's already flagging Sunshine Policy, the biggest loser from a weekend naval clash between North and South Korea could be China. With the government already facing significant pressures as it prepares for a massive leadership transition later this year, the last thing Beijing wants is heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula that could draw in the United States.

Analysis

A naval clash between North and South Korean vessels June 29 left at least four South Koreans dead, one of Seoul's patrol boats sunk and South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's Sunshine Policy of strategic engagement with the North at the bottom of the Yellow Sea. Yet with both Seoul and Pyongyang already balancing their rhetoric with actions intended to reduce the resulting tensions, it is China that may emerge the biggest loser from the weekend exchange.

Seoul says two North Korean patrol boats crossed a disputed sea frontier and one opened fire after ignoring warnings from the South Korean navy; North Korea said Seoul's forces opened fire first. Beijing's response to the fighting was a balanced call for both sides to "make efforts to safeguard stability on the peninsula." Even the official China Daily gave equal coverage to both explanations.

Although China's response to the incident is in part a reflection of the government's delicate balance of relations with the two Koreas, it also demonstrates a deeper concern in Beijing.

The Chinese government has come under internal and external pressure as it prepares for a significant shift in leadership beginning in October. Domestically, China's economic reform and opening program and the country's long-awaited entry into the World Trade Organization has accelerated the rise in unemployment and corresponding labor unrest.

At the same time, Beijing has failed to gain any benefits from the U.S.-led global war against terrorism, and in fact has found itself surrounded by U.S. military forces as Washington expands its presence not only in Southeast Asia, but also in Central Asia on China's western borders.

For Beijing, anything that possibly could spark a broader conflict along its borders -- and further draw in the United States -- is extremely unwelcome. Over the past few months, China has been remarkably muted in its reactions to other potentially destabilizing events, including the December sinking by Japan of a suspected North Korean spy ship in China's Exclusive Economic Zone. Beijing even has allowed Tokyo to mount a recovery operation to raise the sunken vessel.

Despite the significant impact that a conflict in the Koreas can have on China, Beijing's influence in Pyongyang has waned steadily over the past year as North Korea has turned more toward Russia. During this time North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has met with only one visiting Chinese government delegation and the new Chinese ambassador (as well as attending a performance by a visiting People's Liberation Army artistic troupe).

In contrast, Kim has met two times with a Russian Far Eastern representative, twice visited the Russian embassy and met with both the mayor of St. Petersburg and a visiting military delegation from Moscow.

With North Korea stirring trouble again, Beijing will quickly try to regain influence in Pyongyang, just as it did after North Korea's 1998 long-range missile test over Japan. But Pyongyang's key interest right now is its relations with the United States and its ability to set the agenda in upcoming security talks with Washington.

This will make it harder for China to gain North Korea's ear. During past negotiations Pyongyang has used its unpredictable nature to gain an edge against the United States. As North Korea now tries to manipulate Washington's concern for its weapons and missile programs to get further economic and humanitarian concessions, Beijing may find that relations with its unruly neighbor are slipping.

>>Beijing's influence in Pyongyang has waned steadily over the past year as North Korea has turned more toward Russia.

That's not a bad news for China if Russia wants to feed N Korea...

I believe that was the point.

Didn't the North try/threaten to pull some stunt during the Olympics in Seoul?

Jealous that their "system" wouldn't have been able to pull it off.

Re #3

I think that this incident is created to fullfill multiple purposes. Reminding SK that they cannot enjoy their party ignoring NK could be one of them. Another is to change the topic in upcoming talks with America, or outright scuttling it. Because they do not want to talk about WMD's or their proliferations. They would rather talk about Nam-Jo-Sun-Goi-Roi-Do-Dang (the Band of S. Korean Puppets, the pejorative designation of S. Korean gov) and their "provocations".

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