Posted on 06/29/2002 2:09:10 PM PDT by Pokey78
Recent events in the Middle East leave me wondering whether we're witnessing not just the end of the Oslo peace process, but the end of the whole idea of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
When the Palestinians' Intifada II began over a year ago, in the wake of a serious proposal for a Palestinian state by President Clinton, I argued that Palestinians were making a huge mistake. When the party to a conflict initiates an uprising, then suicide bombing, at a time when the outlines of a final peace are on the table — as the Palestinians did — it shatters everything, present and future. In this case it shattered the Israeli peace camp, it blew apart all the fragile confidence-building measures that took years to build, and it generally left the Israeli public feeling it had opened the gates to a Trojan horse.
This is particularly true in the case of the Palestinians because they never articulated why their uprising was necessary, given the diplomatic alternatives still available, or what its precise objectives were. They seem to have been heavily influenced by Hezbollah's success at driving Israel out of Lebanon and seem to have bought into the fantasy that they could give birth to their own state in similar blood and fire. And Yasir Arafat went along for the ride.
"This Intifada II was Yasir Arafat's 1967 war," says the Middle East expert Stephen P. Cohen. "Like Egypt's President Nasser, Arafat got completely swept up in the fantasies of the moment and failed to distinguish between what was real and what was not. And like Nasser, it will be the beginning of his end."
But here's the rub: Even if Mr. Arafat went away, and even if a majority of Israelis were ready to give his successor all of the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, the security requirements and limitations on Palestinian sovereignty that Israelis would insist upon — in the wake of the total breakdown in trust over the last year — would probably be so high that no Palestinian leader would be able to accept them.
If that is the case, it means that a negotiated two-state solution is impossible and Israel is doomed to permanent occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. And if that is the case, it means Israel will have to rule the West Bank and Gaza permanently, the way South African whites ruled blacks under apartheid. Because by 2010, if current demographic patterns hold, there will be more Palestinians in Israel, the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem than Jews. And if that is the case, it means an endless grinding conflict that poses a mortal danger to Israel.
Because there are three trends converging in the Middle East today. The first is this vicious Israeli-Palestinian war. The second is a population explosion in the Arab world, where virtually every Arab country has a population bubble of under-15-year-olds, who are marching toward a future where they will find a shortage of good jobs and a surplus of frustration. The third is an explosion of Arab satellite TV stations, the Internet and other private media.
Basically what's happening is that this Arab media explosion is taking images of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and beaming them to this population explosion, nurturing a rage against Israel, America and Jews in a whole new Arab generation. Of that new generation there are going to be 10 who will go to dad one day and say, "Dad, there is a Pakistani gentleman at the door selling a suitcase nuclear bomb. He wants a check for $100,000, and I would like to personally deliver the suitcase to Tel Aviv." And dad is going to write the check.
The only hope for Israel is to get out of the territories — any orderly way it can — and minimize its friction with the Arab world as the Arabs go through a wrenching internal adjustment to modernization. I applaud President Bush's call for Mr. Arafat to be replaced, in what amounts to Mr. Bush's last-ditch attempt to "re-accredit" the Palestinians as a partner for a two-state solution with Israel. But it is a travesty that Mr. Bush did not act to "re-accredit" Israel, too, as a peace partner for a two-state solution with the Palestinians by insisting that Israel begin pulling back from some of its far-flung settlements in Gaza and the West Bank. It would help the Palestinians undertake their reforms, and it would put Israel in a better position to withdraw unilaterally, if it has to.
Mr. Bush blinked because he didn't want to alienate Jewish voters. Sad. Because George Bush may be on Israel's side, but history, technology and demographics are all against it.
This will only end when one of the two sides ceases to be, and the humans that occupy said side are either all killed, deported to other countries, or successfully reprogrammed into rational human beings and assimilated into the other country (which we all know is never going to happen). It really is that simple.
Carrot Top?
Wrong.
Israel has a peace treaty with Egypt, so the Gaza Strip should be returned to Egyptian control.
Israel has a peace treaty with Jordan, so the West Bank should be returned to Jordanian control.
Once Syria signs a peace treaty with Israel, the Golan Heights should be returned to Syrian control.
Once again for the mentally challanged. There is no such thing as a 'Palestinian'. Never has been, never will be.
L
I agree, but under your plan, what would be done with the psychos that call themselves Palestinians? They'd still be right where they always were, still trying to kill every Jew they could get their hands on.
That's what they'd like to do anyway.
People need to learn about something called "Black September". It's when Yasser and his merry band tried to murder the Jordanian royal family and failed. The Jordanian government rolled tanks over thousands of Arafats followers and herded the survivors into the camps on the West Bank and then left.
Israel should pay the Jordanians back by returning the psycopaths they left there.
L
The United States is soon going to be putting some very serious military muscle into this region of the world.
Doesn't this suggest that there may be another solution to this problem?
The nomadic tribes of the Middle East have been feuding since the dawn of recorded history.
They were fighting before I was born and for as long as I can remember.
I suspect they'll still be fighting long after I'm gone, even though I plan on being around for quite a few more years.
IMHO, America should keep its nose out of this dispute as best it can.
Let's develop our own energy natural resources (ANWR, coal & nuclear) so we're less dependent on imported OPEC oil.
Stop all foreign "aid" to the region to factions on either side of the dispute.
Let the feuding factions settle their own disputes.
There will only be peace when THEY decide they want it. There's nothing us outsiders can do about it.
Sounds good to me!
And your solution, Tom, is...?
The only hope for Israel is to get out of the territories
Unilateral withdrawal and hope the Islamaniacs leave Israel alone. Appeasement. Brilliant. Except that appeasement of homicidal maniacs does not work, and so we're back to square one.
Israel, give it up and make piece any way you can, just like we had the Czechs do. Sincerely, the Ghost of Neville Chamberlain.
Like Nasser, Arafat is Egyptian.;^)
There is another solution. Israel should re-occupy the southern part of Lebanon, transfer all the Palestinians in Judea, Samaria and Gaza there, then evacuate and let the Arab world deal with them. They should also let the Arabs know the next Arab country that attacks them will be nuked immediately.
I think he is wrong on the effect television will have on the Arabs, at least any Arabs with common decency.
Now one can argue that there is no such thing but I disagree. I detect a healthy surge of shame among the Palis with this picture of the baby with the suicide bomber costume. AT LAST, we discover what the limits are to what is acceptable in the Arab world as a suicide bomber!
A fifteen year old Arab bomber killing a 4 year old Israeli child and his grandmother is acceptable, AT LEAST, that would be wrong if the suicide bomber were a four year old child.
Can Arab morality and sensibility be far behind?
Make no mistake, at the very bottom, at the very core of this issue, the coming Jewish Temple is what all the fighting and dying is about in Israel.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.