NATO's Kosovo Mission Failed

Mitrovica, Kosovo - IT HAS BEEN three years since NATO troops first rolled into Kosovo and the last of the Yugoslav security forces withdrew from this embattled province.

At that juncture, the western media hailed NATO's intervention as the "liberation of Kosovo" and a victory for Albanian Kosovars. Many misguided military analysts proclaimed the campaign to be "proof" that overwhelming air power alone was sufficient to win modern wars.

In actual fact, unexpected Serbian defiance and the inability of NATO aircraft to locate and destroy the Yugoslav military had forced NATO to concede to then president Slobodan Milosevic's demands and negotiate a diplomatic settlement.

Originally, NATO planners had expected the Serbs to concede after five days of face-saving resistance. No one had planned for a campaign that would last 78 days without creating a crack in the Serbs' will to resist.

Likewise, despite the exaggerated daily claims of destruction by NATO spokesman Jamie Shea, the top brass knew their planes could not find the well-concealed Serbian forces in Kosovo.

Although Shea boasted of NATO pilots "killing" over 150 armoured vehicles, it was later confirmed that only 13 Yugoslav tanks were destroyed during the fighting.

Of these, five were, in fact, Second World War-vintage, U.S.-made M-10 tank destroyers, museum pieces, that were placed in fields by the Serbs as deliberate decoys.

As a result of the air campaign's failure to achieve its aims, NATO was forced to sign a peace deal with Milosevic, a man they had already indicted as a war criminal.

Under the terms of this deal (United Nations Resolution 1244), an international military occupation force in Kosovo would also include non-NATO contingents (notably the Russians, who rushed in to seize the strategic Pristina airport in advance of the NATO forces); the world would still recognize Kosovo as sovereign Yugoslav territory; the Albanian guerrilla force known as the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) was to be quickly disarmed, at which time Serbian security forces would be allowed to re-enter the province to protect historical sites and border posts; and, finally, NATO's demand to hold a referendum on Kosovo's independence "within three years" was to be postponed "indefinitely."

However, what has become obvious over the past 36 months is that NATO negotiators never had any intention of fully implementing Resolution 1244. Even after the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic's regime, it is apparent that the United Nations Mission in Kosovo is unwilling to co-operate with Yugoslav authorities.

Furthermore, the KLA was never fully disarmed and was reconstituted as the UN-funded Kosovo Protection Corps. Despite repeated protests from Yugoslav negotiators and the destruction of their religious sites, no Serbian police have been allowed to re-enter Kosovo, in spite of the fact that this province technically remains part of the sovereign territory of Yugoslavia.

More importantly, the arguments to justify NATO's military intervention continue to erode. At the time of the first bombing, we were led to believe that timely action would prevent a humanitarian crisis in Kosovo.

However, it was two days after the air strikes began that first a trickle, then a flood of refugees began pouring from the region.

With 800,000 Albanians housed in squalid refugee camps, NATO spokesman Jamie Shea told us that the bombing had to continue "because Milosevic was committing genocide."

At one stage, in order to encourage support for a military ground campaign, the U.S. State Department claimed that as many as 100,000 Albanians had been slaughtered in Kosovo. However, in the three years since NATO's occupation, United Nations forensic teams have had difficulty in identifying even 2,000 victims that would have been killed during the 78-day crisis. (This number includes over 400 Serbs and 300 other non-Albanians, and does not distinguish between combatants and civilians.)

Given the final death tally, even the newly constituted Albanian Kosovo Supreme Court ruled last month that no genocide had taken place in Kosovo, only the displacement of people.

Nevertheless, despite the presence of 40,000 NATO soldiers and 10,000 international police who patrol the province, over the past 36 months there have been 1,000 murders and 2,000 people were reported missing.

For the 239,000 Serbs who fled Kosovo in 1999, during the period of Albanian "revenge" attacks, displacement into refugee camps remains a reality. For the additional 100,000 Serbs and non-Albanians who stayed in their homes in Kosovo, they continue to live in tiny enclaves under 24-hour NATO protection.

With an unresolved refugee crisis and continued inter-ethnic violence, it is difficult to understand how NATO officials, who were responsible for the intervention, can proclaim Kosovo to be either justifiable or a success.

Ha ha ha! I can see economics is not one of your strong points. But don't worry, I am an economics major so if you listen carefully you will learn alot from me.

well when you finally pass your exams, pluz tell me.

The reason Croatia is buying F-16's has nothing to do with pressure from the US. It's becaue a modern fighter will be invaluable incase of another Balkan war. This is entirely military desision, nothing to do with economy.

you are certainly correct that the F-16's have nothing to do with Croatia's & Damalmatia's economies, however the purchase has everything to do with the US economy.

Unemployment is 18% which is high to EU standards but is much better then any Balkan country.

I believe unemployment is stuck at 23%, pray tell where did you get the 18% figure ? I also believe that recent grads have a 45% unemployment rate.

If Croatia wanted to, it could lower unemployment, but lowering unemployment too fast causes inflation (this is called the Phillips curve in economics).

ROTFLMOA.........indeed if one simply prints worthless Kuna to pay people's salaries, that causes inflation.....however, my dear economics student productive economies are massive generators of new jobs irrespective of inflation/deflation. You need to reread the chapter on productivity and the Solow Growth Model

Inflation is 4%, that's very low.

and why is a low inflation ipos facto something to be proud of ? Many economies (ie Brazil) have huge inflation and seem to provide rising living standards. what one needs to be proud of is a rising living standard.......Croatia's is falling/stagant.

Tourism brings 4 billion USD annually, that's about 20% of Serbia's entire GDP.

there you go again, bringing up the little neighbor to the south, why is it that ur-Croats can not feel good about their country w/o dissing Belgrade ? It really is pathetic

Foreign debt, I have no idea what it is.

well economics student, this is after all the key question. because if the foreign debt is large and it appears to be a structuraly necessary to the economy, then you've got some serious restructuring to do at some point (see Argentina 2001-2010? and USA 1973-82)

Croatia & Dalmatia's current foreign debt is $12 Billion. BTW in 2000, it was $8 Billion. Meaning that during the greatest economic boom mankind ever experienced, Croatia & Dalmatia's foreign debt increased by 50%. I'd say ( and bear with me for I am not a economics student anymore) that C & D has a structural deficit .

The idiotic Superhighway to Split will add another $5 billion to the debt. ( I know Zagreb is telling us the road will only cost $3 billion, but when did a government mega project ever meet its budget ?)

C & D therefore will face in 2 years ( recall Z-grad told us the road would be done in 3 yrs, started last yr), a foreign debt of over $17 Billion. That works out to slightly under $4,000 per capita foreign debt.

And foreign debt ain't cheap, that is why banker's love to dish it out. Present Value Debt service on the $12,000 per employed person will be something on order of 20% of principle......ie $2,400 buckeroos per year.....

Translation, each and every little gainfully employed person will be paying something like $2,400 per month to service the foriegn debt. And what will he get for the $2,400.....squat......'cuz it will be sent to banks in London & NYC.

C & D have a looming debt crisis (more when we get to Tourist Revenue)

But I am sure it's lower then Serbia's.

well actually no.....Serbia's foreign debt is something like $4 billion, Montenegro's is $1 billion, and UNMIK controled areas are $1.4 billion......on a per capita basis Serbia's foreign debt is 1/10 of C & D's.

GDP growth rate is 6%.

I love it when 3rd worlder's crow about their GDP growth rates. Per capita GDP in C & D is something like $3,750, 6% means you'll add a whopping $200 bucks onto per capita product. Lez see in the real world (ie 'merica & EU), Per Capital GDP is say $28,000+, at a measley 2% real growth rate means that we are adding $560 to our per captia product.

At that rate we will be equal to any EU country very soon.

No you won't buddy..... you've gained $200 bucks and the rich guys have gained $560......you have lost ground. And once in a (rare) while, the real world has a really great year and grows at say 5%, meaning we'll gain ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED SMACKEROOS.

6% does't cut it. In order to 'catch up'..... C & D will have to generate 10-12% growth rates year in year out....

But, since you are the economics student pray tell explain to me the rather curious paradox.....if GDP is growing why are living standards falling ? Croatia PPP is around 40% of its 1988 level

If things are so hunky dory in C & D why's the PPP so low ?

tourism revenues is $4 billion

yeah that is 1/2 of its 1988 level in real terms..... at $4 billion the tourist industry barely makes a profit. Rich people are just not ever going to return to Dalmatia. You'll still get the Poles, the Slovaks, the Ukranians, and working class Germans.......who refuse to spend more than $50 per day instead of the $500 per day that we spend......the frigging super highway will just bring more of these cheapskates......Z-grad will be spending $5 billion in order to attract another 200,000 caravan driving Lativans and White Russians.

it is just pathetic what the HDZ did to your economy. Just pathetic

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