LA Democrats Seem Certain to Retake Governorship in 2003

The Shreveport Times | 06-26-02 | Maginnis, John

[Theodore R.]

COLUMN: Candidate pack is thick on horizon of governor's race

John Maginnis

Posted on June 26, 2002

Even with more than a year to go before qualifying, even before this fall's U.S. Senate election campaign gets into gear, the next governor's race has begun.

If you've not heard from any candidates yet, take heart, for at this early stage, they won't be seeking your advice, your time or even your vote. They will want your money. Any candidate spending a lot of time talking about ideas and issues is losing ground in the chase for dollars.

The early race already has taken a few sharp turns, starting with Sen. John Breaux's decision not to accept the coronation. After that, for a while, it looked as though the two congressmen from the New Orleans area, David Vitter, R-Metairie, and Bill Jefferson, D-New Orleans, were destined for a runoff. That was before Vitter mysteriously decided to spend more time with his family and Jefferson suffered serious political reversals from the defeats of candidates he backed, including his daughter, spelling trouble for his re-election bid this fall.

With the retreats of the strongest potential candidates on the left and the right, the political center - normally a death trap in the open primary - is looking better than ever. That is subject to change, but if this election does not polarize as it often does, the center could push out instead of being squeezed out by the extremes on the left and right.

That's bodes well for the three statewide elected Democrats, Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco, Attorney General Richard Ieyoub and Treasurer John Kennedy, as well as former Democratic legislators Randy Ewing and Buddy Leach. With the traditional Democratic base open, all can broaden their appeals from the left to the right of center. One of them is sure to make a runoff and, if blacks spread their votes around, Democrats could finish 1-2.

The right also is wide open - perhaps too wide open for Republicans who have fewer votes to divide. Though many GOP legislators and party leaders are quietly delighted to have Vitter out of the picture, they also have lost a nearly sure bet for the runoff. State Sen. Ken Hollis, R-Metairie, has announced and state Rep. Hunt Downer, R-Houma, is expected to follow suit soon. Former Gov. Dave Treen, 73, says he probably will run. Yet none will start with Vitter's congressional base, money or momentum.

In a recent poll on the governor's race by Southern Media, Vitter was the only Republican among four candidates at or near double digits. (Blanco ran first, followed by Jefferson, Vitter and Ieyoub.) Hollis and Downer were locked in a battle for seventh at 1.4 percent. Treen wasn't included in the survey.

There is room for one of them to grow or for someone else to make a move. Many Republicans think Elections Commissioner Suzanne Terrell, who is deciding whether to run for the Senate, should run for governor instead. Or, if she vies for the Senate and loses but runs a good race, she still could run for governor. No one has more options than Terrell, but she needs to choose carefully.

In all likelihood, some Republican will galvanize conservative support and make a runoff against the Democrat who gets the most black votes. That's the way it usually goes, but this has all the makings of an unusual election.

The last two times Republicans took the Governor's Mansion - Treen in 1979 and Foster in 1995 - they came after terms of Edwin Edwards with the promise to change state government. What do Republicans have to run against now? They may differ with Foster's tax-and-spending policies, but do they risk his retribution by criticizing him publicly? They can promise to continue his popular programs - TOPS, accountability, community colleges - and do a better job at economic development, but the Democrats will be saying the same things.

This year's constitutional vote on the Vic Stelly plan to swap income and sales tax will settle the tax debate one way or the other.

So after eight years of Foster's largely nonpartisan administration, Republican candidates have no dragons to slay and few issues Democrats can't co-opt. Before Republicans find a candidate who can make the runoff, they need a message to make voters notice the difference.

John Maginnis is a Baton Rouge-based syndicated columnist who reports on Louisiana politics. His column appears Wednesdays. Write Maginnis in care of Political Review, P.O. Box 6, Baton Rouge, LA 70821

[Theodore R.]

What can one say, LA is a Democrat's haven! And poor Dave Treen's trying to run for governor after being crushed in a 1983 reelection bid is a bit too much.

[RWCon]

Then there's Billy Cannon!