Posted on 06/25/2002 2:38:33 PM PDT by Ivan the Terrible
It is no secret that in mid-2001 rapprochement was initiated between the Russian Federation (RF) on one hand, and the U.S. and NATO on the other hand, targeted as the most important goal the Chinese-Russian alliance with all its aspects - military-technological, strategic-geopolitical etc.; it was supposed to undermine this alliance.
As was shown in the NewsMax articles "Sergei Ivanov Goes to Beijing” and "Sergei Ivanov Returns from Beijing,” this didn’t happen. However, let’s look at the Chinese reaction in a more comprehensive way.
Information from the Beijing and Hong Kong media
On May 22, Beijing-based China Daily paper published an editorial comment, "New Council a Compromise” (major points only):
The end of the Cold War aroused many doubts about the relevance of NATO. But NATO has obviously ignored its curtain call and instead continued to grow. Some Eastern European nations and former Soviet republics have either applied for, or already have been granted, NATO membership, despite Moscow’s strong opposition.
There has been deep Russian suspicion of a new form: strategic encirclement by the West … Since the RF appears unable to stop NATO’s eastward expansion, the country has to deal with it. The NATO-RF council was created during NATO’s two-day ministerial meeting in Reykjavik on May 14. This reflects subtle changes in the relationship between the two previous rivals …
Integrating the RF into NATO and the Western world is also in line with Washington’s interests. With Russian participation, there would be no major obstacles to NATO’s expansion, which on the other hand helps NATO to contain RF in the long run, as well as spreads its influence into Eastern Europe and parts of Asia …
Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterates that the RF will not seek NATO membership. [However,] it is in Russia’s interest to cooperate with the West, which is the major source of Russia’s much-needed capital and technology.
It would be wise for the RF to exert its influence by participating in the affairs of U.S.-led NATO. The RF-NATO council may also produce a venue to reduce the chances of face-to-face confrontation with the West … Diverging strategic interests will significantly confine the scope of cooperation between RF and NATO, but the possibilities for conflict-reduction in the new council are invaluable. [end of description]
This is a calm and somewhat supportive comment.
The article "Chinese Experts Say US-Russian Cooperation Not Seen As Threat to Beijing,” published on May 25 by Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post paper (extremely informed and, generally, not too friendly to Beijing) is also of high interest (very briefly):
The U.S.-Russian nuclear arms reduction treaty will neither help nor hurt Beijing's strategic position, China experts say …
"This treaty has no real substance," said professor Li Bin, director of Tsinghua University's Arms Control Program. Analysts say the agreement does not decrease the massive arsenal of short-range tactical missiles and nuclear warheads stockpiled by the RF and the U.S. "The weapons will still be there and can be easily used," said professor Shen Jiru, a senior research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Science's Institute of World Economy and Politics.
Most significantly, analysts note the agreement will have no effect on the nuclear-use strategy of either nation … But analysts believe the agreement does not pose any new threat to Beijing, and does not create a U.S.-Russian bloc to contain China. "I don't see any real co-operation between the RF and the U.S. from the treaty. It is severely limited," professor Li said. Professor Shen said: "The RF is not going to give up its relations with China."
For now, it appears that the Russian analysts agree with the Chinese assessment. "The projection that the RF-U.S. cooperation can kill the RF-China relationship is wrong. RF-China relations are in better shape than one can imagine," said Dr. Dimitry Evstafiev, a senior research associate and director of the Program on Domestic Politics and Security at the Moscow-based PIR Centre for Policy Studies. [end of description]
On May 26, South China Morning Post quoted Li Jingjie, Beijing-based director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Russian, Central Asian and Eastern European Studies, who said that ties between China and the RF were developing smoothly and he did not believe they would be affected by Putin's pro-Western policies.
"The most important part of the Chinese-Russian relationship is mutual security and development," he said. "China and the RF are neighboring powers with nuclear weapons and are members of the permanent committee of the United Nations ... Both need a peaceful surrounding situation. Without a relationship with the RF, it is not possible to have such a situation."
Li quoted Western experts saying Putin was making a virtue of a necessity. "He's not happy about [the U.S. project for] national missile defense, but what can he do about it? … He's not happy about NATO expansion, but instead of banging his head against the wall and not getting anywhere, he'll have a more cooperative relationship with NATO. [end of article]
Also interesting is the comment in Hong Kong-based Ta Kung Pao, a Beijing-owned paper, on May 26: "The Background Behind the Increasing Closeness Between the U.S. and RF." After describing all the agreements concluded by the RF with the U.S. and NATO, the paper draws the following conclusion:
"Actually, despite the fact that Russians have put on good shows again and again, the U.S. is miserly in returning the favor. It continually makes promises it does not keep. Not only has there been no assistance in the form of cold, hard cash so far, the U.S. disdains even to help with an early entry into the WTO, to cancel a proposed trade law that would discriminate against the RF, or to support U.S. enterprises investing in the RF. Public opinion surveys show widespread antipathy towards the U.S. among Russian people, and not without reason.”
And on May 30 (according to Xinhua and international agencies), China welcomed the RF's new partnership with NATO, saying the improvement in Moscow's relations with the U.S.-dominated security alliance would contribute to global peace and stability.
"This is a new change in the regional situation of Europe. We welcome this," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan told a news conference. "We welcome the improvement of relations between the RF and the U.S."
But he said China had its own views on preserving global peace and stability, preferring broader cooperation and frowning on narrow military alliances. Analysts said China was unlikely to be too concerned about the RF-NATO pact in the short term since the relationship was still in its early stages and NATO was still focused on Europe.
Finally, Renmin Ribao published on June 3 the article "Asymmetric Trial of Strength” [briefly]: Over the past month, people of the world have witnessed two major events in the history of the relations between the RF and the West.
1) Demolition of nuclear warheads
The U.S. and RF had finally reached a compromise on the partial storage and partial demolition of nuclear warheads; the presidents of the two countries had also formally signed a treaty on the reduction of offensive strategic forces of the RF and U.S. Judging from the final results, the RF and U.S. each had gotten their due. Just as what was said by related American experts, the RF got a treaty, while the U.S. obtained what it wanted.
2) New NATO-RF "20 mechanism":
The 20-Nation Rome Leaders Conference held on May 28 declared the formal establishment of a RF-NATO council; the new "20-Mechanism" formally replaced the "19+1 mechanism."
In NATO's description, "This marks the end of the Cold War mentality and represents a change in the psychological and thinking mode of both sides," while the Russian side considers this "a new channel for genuine political cooperation between both sides."
In reality, the RF is getting rather doubtful security guarantees. Considering the background wherein the list of new member states to be accepted in the next step is to be decided at the Prague Summit by NATO this November, people feel that the founding of the RF-NATO council and the birth of the "20-mechanism" contain more or less the flavor of a "treaty signed with the enemy battering the fortress wall."
There are also many doubtful items in the U.S.-Russian Treaty. Apparently, the two treaty parties did not clearly define the concrete annual reduction targets by the end of 2012, nor did they mention measures for check and verification; they didn't bother to see whether weapons were really dismantled.
So, storage has also become a reduction method by which nuclear warheads are taken down from the actual combat posts and put away in warehouses. Given the right circumstances, they will be swiftly taken out of storage and reassembled for use.
Eventually, although the accords the RF signed with the U.S. and NATO left much to be desired, they preserve at least in form the nuclear disarmament mechanism; perhaps it can still be regarded as a pragmatic choice. Russia achieved some gains from the "NATO 20-mechanism;" however, nobody dares to guarantee the future of this cooperation. [end of article brief]
Assessment of Washington experts and final conclusions
Independent analysis of Beijing’s reaction prepared by one of Washington’s think tank is as follows [briefly]:
"The PRC Media Adopt a Realistic Tone on US-Russian-NATO Advances While Looking To Continue Strong Sino-Russian Ties.”
Recent PRC media have put the best face on the RF's move toward the West while questioning the strength of improved U.S.-Russian-NATO ties. At the same time, continued positive media treatment of Chinese-Russian relations indicates that Beijing is taking steps to keep its relationship with RF on an even keel as the RF improves its ties with the West.
The PRC media have portrayed Chinese officials as accepting improved RF-U.S.-NATO ties, while media commentary has argued improvements will not necessarily come at China's expense. Namely:
- China's official news agency Xinhua on June 7 quoted Chinese President Jiang Zemin as telling Russian President Putin during a meeting in St. Petersburg that improved RF-U.S.-European relations are "good" for international "peace, security, and stability."
- PRC media commentary has portrayed the RF's move westward as a rational response to economic and strategic pressures. A May 31 article in Renmin Ribao noted that the RF needs U.S. economic support and that it does not have "many bargaining chips."
- A Chinese Foreign Ministry think tank official wrote in the May issue of the think tank's journal, "Guoji Wenti Yanjiu” (International Problems Research), that U.S.-RF-China relations are not a "zero sum game" and that improvements in U.S.-Russian relations will "not necessarily" come at China's expense.
At the same time, PRC media have questioned the strength of improved U.S.-RF-NATO ties. Namely, a Renmin Ribao article on May 31 said that "basic differences" remain [between Russia and the West] despite recent advances; and an article in the army newspaper Jiefangjun Bao on June 4 argued that "friction and conflict" over implementation of the US-RF arms accord were "almost inevitable."
The PRC media have continued their usual positive treatment of Sino-Russian exchanges, suggesting that China is looking to maintain solid ties with the RF as the RF moves westward:
- Xinhua reported that Jiang Zemin told Putin on June 7 that Sino-Russian relations have "stood the test of time" and that he highlighted the "close contacts" between the two countries' leaders.
- During Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov's recent visit to Beijing on May 31-June 1, Xinhua reported that his Chinese counterpart Gen. Chi Haotian said the two countries share "similar or identical views" on international issues and that Jiang highlighted their "close consultation." [end of comment]
Now one can make the following final conclusions:
Generally, China shows a calm, beneficial reaction to the new agreements of the U.S. and NATO with Russia. That’s because (a) Russian weapon technology will continue flowing to China; (b) Russia is steadily expanding the flow of raw materials including oil and gas to China, and no threat emerges to Chinese economic domination in the Russian Far East and Eastern Siberia; (c) Russia and China will continue their joint struggle for world multi-polarization, without U.S. domination; and (d) the two countries will continue joint support for their "pets”, i.e., Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, etc.
Some Western media — the Singapure Strait Times, the International Tribune etc. — have published articles showing that China is "scared” of the new developments. However, this is merely wishful thinking. [End]
Any future Chinese aggression against...let's say Taiwan....would be interesting since China would have so many potential threat vectors to deal with, especially if the US fulfilled its agreement with Taiwan and protected it from Chinese aggression.
Anyway to me it seems that China saying it is not concerned is simply a lot of smoke....and a bunch of BS.
Concur.
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