New Expansion of Chinese-Russian Alliance in May-June 2002

News Max ^ | June 25, 2002 | Dr. Alexandr Nemets and Dr. Thomas Torda

[Ivan the Terrible]

Let us look at how the Moscow media in late May 2002 – right at the time of the Bush-Putin summit in Moscow and St. Petersburg – described relations in the Moscow-Beijing-Washington triangle. For example, in a Vremya Novostei newspaper report for May 28, the following was emphasized:

"[Russian President Vladimir] Putin told [U.S. President George] Bush that he has some questions concerning development of certain missile programs by Taiwan. The hypothetical missile might of this small island does not jeopardize Russia. Putin just reminded Bush that Russia takes to heart Chinese interests. Evidently, Putin was against both the deployment of the Patriot air-defense missile systems on Taiwan and development – jointly by Taiwan and the U.S. – of ballistic missiles of 150 km range, capable of hitting the Mainland."

Some other Moscow papers also commented on Putin's statement by saying "there is some limit – determined in Beijing – for U.S.-Russian rapprochement.”

Let’s look now at the major items of Putin’s interview with Renmin Ribao (the People’s Daily, published May 31) on May 30 in the Kremlin. This interview, given to the newspaper’s editor in chief and president of the China Newspaper Association, Xu Zhongtian, is entitled "Putin Says Russian Federation (RF)-China Cooperation Stands Above RF-U.S. Relationship in Various Aspects."

Putin emphasized (major items only):

- Under the current international situation, Russia and China should strengthen cooperation.

- The Russian-Chinese Good Neighbor Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation, signed at the suggestion of Chinese President Jiang Zemin, has deepened and reset the strategic cooperative partnership between the two countries. Under the new situation, the two countries should intensify their bilateral cooperative efforts.

- The recent agreements with NATO and the U.S. doesn’t mean that Russia is neglecting its relationship with China. Russia considers the development of this relationship a primary task.

- The Russian-Chinese Good Neighbor Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation, signed in July 2001 (and following development of bilateral ties), indicates that Russian-Chinese cooperation stands above the Russian-U.S. relationship in various aspects.

- Cooperation between the two countries would be upgraded at the summit in St. Petersburg on June 6-7. (end of interview)

Some Moscow papers – for example, Moscow Vedomosti on June 3 – tried to give a milder interpretation of Putin’s interview. They emphasized, for example, Putin’s statement that "Russia has no choice, for in the West it has to make friends with the West and in the East with the East." They also stressed that the interview, diplomatically, did not mention treaties on strategic offensive weapons and ABM (anti-ballistic-missile) defense or the essence of Russia’s new relations with NATO.

This doesn’t change things much: Putin won’t give up a well-developed alliance with China in exchange for a newly emerged partnership with the West.

Jiang and Putin met, for the first time in about a year, on June 3, in Almaty, the former capital of Kazakhstan, jointly with leaders of India and Pakistan. This meeting had some non-negligible consequences; however, their meeting on June 6-7 in St. Petersburg, at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, is of much greater interest.

During that meeting with Jiang, Putin insisted that Moscow's increasingly close friendship with the West does not threaten its partnership with China. "We believe that relations with our great eastern neighbor, China, are a major priority," he said.

Welcoming Jiang at the historic Yusupov Palace, Putin said that the two nations have "big plans” for expanding military cooperation. Addressing Jiang as "comrade,” Putin again hailed him for initiating the friendship treaty, a "historic document which laid the foundation for the development of Russian-Chinese ties."

Putin also reassured Jiang during that meeting that all arms deals with China would be honored.

Let’s look now for the comment in Renmin Ribao, published on June 7 (briefly):

Jiang Zemin said in the June 6 meeting in St. Petersburg that a better relationship between Russia, the U.S. and Europe will be good for world peace, security and stability. Jiang also said that the strategic partnership between China and Russia had withstood the test of time. The close contacts between the top leaders of the two countries had always been a driving force behind the development of bilateral relations, he noted.

In accordance with the Chinese-Russian Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation, the two countries should strengthen mutual trust politically and further cooperate in the economic and trade areas, Jiang added. Putin responded that the two sides should strengthen cooperation in various areas in accordance with the principles and spirit of the treaty. (end of comment)

On June 7, Russia’s official ITAR-TASS agency published a statement of Foreign Ministry official Aleksandr Yakovenko (briefly): "Chinese-Russian business ties play a leading role in bilateral relations. Trade last year reached nearly $11 billion and keeps growing.

"The structure of this trade has improved and supplies of Russian machines and equipment to China [mostly weapon technology and related items] have increased considerably. A nuclear power plant project [2 million KW-thermal power plant in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province], preparations for laying a Russian-China oil pipeline and a gas pipeline project to connect Western China with the eastern coast are the core elements of bilateral cooperation. Russia and China maintain scientific and technological cooperation and either country's companies are prepared to contribute to the development of telecommunications. Investment cooperation has been expanding.

"There are more than 1,100 businesses with Russian capital in China, with investments totaling $250 million, and 400 Chinese businesses registered in Russia. China welcomes Russian participation in the program for boosting the development of China's western areas." (end of interview)

Evidently, no additional comments are necessary here.

One more comment of a high-ranking and very informed Russian official (ITAR-TASS agency, June 7, St. Petersburg), namely, the deputy head of Putin’s Kremlin office Sergey Prikhodko (briefly): "The meeting between Putin and Jiang Zemin was thorough, benevolent and substantive.” More specifically:

1. Jiang and Putin returned to the results of the conference in Almaty on June 3. They noted that the summit showed itself as "a good mechanism" for the development of cooperation and prevention of conflicts in Asia.

2. Putin informed Jiang in detail of the results of talks with Bush, the Russian-NATO summit in Rome, and the Russian-EU summit in Moscow. Putin and Jiang pointed to a high level of cooperation between Russia and China in the international arena, which is of great importance for global stability.

3. The Russian and Chinese leaders positively appraised the growing trade and economic cooperation between the two nations. They noted at the same time that despite all positive aspects – the growth in trade turnover and the start of implementing large bilateral cooperation projects – steps should nevertheless be taken for more dynamic expansion of economic cooperation.

4. Putin and Jiang also positively appraised the results of the recent meeting in Beijing of the Russian-Chinese commission on military cooperation (during the visit of Sergei Ivanov to Beijing, on May 31-June 2).

After the St. Petersburg summit, Jiang Zemin spent several days in the Russian resort of Sochi, on the Black Sea coast. In his meeting there with Viktor Kazantsev, Russian Presidential Envoy in the Southern Federal District, Jiang said that on the basis of the Good Neighbor Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation between China and Russia, Chinese-Russian relations have been developing in an overall manner, with exchanges and cooperation at local levels forming an important part of the bilateral relationship.

Evidently, Jiang was very satisfied by the results of the St. Petersburg summit and related events.

Finally, one can conclude that the Jiang-Putin summit in St. Petersburg, together with preceding events, resulted in upgrading of Russian-Chinese cooperation in the military, military-technological, economic and geopolitical areas. And no serious problems – at least at the top level – exist between the two countries.

As numerous reports in a Hong Kong-based newspaper stressed on June 8-12, if some shadows emerged in the Russian-Chinese relations after Russian agreements with the U.S. and NATO, they entirely vanished after the two summits of Jiang and Putin in Almaty and St. Petersburg.

The following comment in Renmin Ribao, June 14, generally confirms these conclusions: "Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov noted in an article published in a Moscow weekly [exact name of the newspaper is unknown] on June 11: the Russian-Chinese Good Neighbor Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation signed last year has laid a solid foundation for the development of multi-faceted, long-term cooperation between the two countries.

"China is one of Russia's main trade partners, with bilateral trade volume reaching a record level last year. The two countries had reached an agreement on plans for laying an oil pipeline leading from Russia to China [between Angarsk city in the Irkutsk region of eastern Siberia and Daqing city, the "oil capital of China," in Heilongjiang province of China’s northeast, to transport annually 25-30 million tons of oil to China after 2005]." (end of comment)

Igor Ivanov and Remin Ribao "forgot" to mention the huge and still growing flows of Russian weapon technology to China.

After all, why is this expansion and upgrading of the Chinese-Russian alliance so important? The answer is because China intends to use its newly acquired economic, technological and military potential in the global struggle with the U.S. or, probably, in direct military conflict with the U.S. and its close allies. And Russia is doing its best to additionally increase this potential, to prepare China in the best way available for this struggle, to provide China with maximum chances for victory.

So, what is the price of the recent U.S.-Russian and Russian-NATO treaties? Zero or even negative, because they give the West a baseless hope. And what role does the Kremlin play? Definitely a provocative one.