Two Polls Indicate a Close Senate Race [NJ]

NJ Star Ledger ^ | 6/20/02 | David Kinney

[Coop]

Heartening Republicans, two new polls suggest U.S. Sen. Robert Torricelli is in for a fight this fall.

At the same time, the candidates began airing radio ads attacking each other in a prelude to what looms as a hard-edged campaign.

[Coop]

This is from last week, but couldn't find it in the archives. There were several key points (in bold) above that I wanted to make sure were disseminated.

Concerning the "somebody" versus "nobody," that's a valid point a week before the election. (IMHO) But this far out the fella hardly known by anybody can seriously improve his positive numbers. Torricelli really can't do that. So he has to attack Forrester, thereby driving up his own negatives even further.

And for Forrester to be running even with independents this early spells big trouble for the Torch.

[hchutch]

Knock off Torricelli, add the fact that Wellstone, Johnson, and Carnahan also look like they are in serious trouble, we're in good shape.

If we can add Harkin and Cleland to the list, we're going to be in VERY good shape come January 2003. Can you say, Senate control?

[eureka!]

Good news. Steady as she goes....

[Coop]

Heck, while we're at it, let's add Baucus and Durbin to that optimistic list. :-)

[Coop]

Flag

[hchutch]

No, I think we will, when the dust settles, have taken out four or five Dems from the list I have. If the Battleground analysis is right, we're going to roll big time in November.

[Coop]

Hmmm. Here's my personal dirty baker's dozen list, at this point in time, of the main seats in play (from most to least vulnerable).

1) Johnson (D-SD)
2) Wellstone (D-MN)
3) Smith (R-NH)
4) Carnahan (D-MO)
5) Hutchinson (R-AR)
6) Torricelli (D-NJ)
7) Harkin (D-IA)
8) Open GOP (TX)
9) Cleland (D-GA)
10) Smith (R-OR)
11) Durbin (D-IL)
12) Baucus (D-MT)
13) Allard (R-CO)

Looks pretty good for the GOP at this point, especially with a money advantage, but a lot of those incumbent Dems have done very well at fundraising. This is going to be a very interesting election.

[Common Tator]

If I were doing the fall RNC campaigns I would put severl million into destroying the most positive thing democrats have going for them. The public at large believes that Democrats are for the 'Common Person" and Republicans are for the Rich. I would run get a list of all the soft and hard money doners to the Democratic candidates and party.

During the full week before the election I would run 24 spots a day on every station in the contested states. It would be a 20 second add listing 5 or 6 very Rich people and what made them rich. It would state the amount these super rich people gave to the Democrats. The kicker line would be, if the Democrats are for the working class then why do the rich give them so much money. The ad would be the same but nearly time it was heard the list of rich people giving to Democrats would be different. It would create the impression and belief that the Democrats are for the Rich and the Rich are the Democrats source of money. It would be hard for democrats to counter because it is the truth.

Democrats win because much of the public believes the Republicans are for the Rich and the the Democrats are for working people. The truth is far more of the really rich are Democrats than are Republicans. Democrats are the really really rich who control the poor and lower middle classes by pretending to be for them. Take the poor and lower middle class from the Democrats and they may never win an election again.

Even if it took tons of ads over two or three elections to change the perception, when it did, the Democrats would be toast.

[crystalk]

Is there no hope in Louisiana at ALL? Surely something could be done, we need that seat badly.

[frmrda]

Coop - Do you have a calendar?

If so make a note to Freepmail me a day or two after Election Day 2002 on these predictions on the Senate seats that are "in play".

These are the only Senate seats that will change hands:

Coleman (R) beats Wellstone (D) in MN

Thune (R) beats Johnson (D) in SD

Pryor (D) beats Hutchison (R) in AR

Sununu (R) beats Shaheen (D) in NH after beating Smith (R) in the primary.

These seats stay the same, but the margin is less than 53/47:

Carnahan (D) beats Talent (R) in MO

Toricelli (D) beats Forrester (R) in NJ

Allard (R) beats Strickland (D) in CO

These races will not be as close as people think, with the margin being over 53/47:

Harkin (D) beats Ganske (R) in IA

Cleland (D) beats Chambliss (R) in GA

Baucus (D) beats Taylor (D) in MT

Smith (R) beats Bradbury (D) in OR

Landreiu (D) beats Cooksey (R) in LA

Durbin (D) beats Dirksen (R) in IL

[Coop]

From where I sit, there's no hope at all. The LA GOP has already given up on Cooksey and is now trying to recruit another candidate to split the vote three ways. LA law would then require a run-off (in Dec, I believe) if Landrieu didn't get a certain % of the vote. Then the GOP could pull out all the stops with the President and VP to try to defeat Landrieu. But it's a very long shot, IMHO. Landrieu went from being pretty vulnerable to rock solid in the course of a few months.

[hchutch]

Johnson and Wellstone are definite GOP pickups.

Sununu, if he wins the primary keeps the NH seat Republican. After that, Carnahan goes down. AR will be close, but Hutchinson will pull it out and survive that storm. Torricelli and Harkin go down. Cleland-Chambliss could be VERY close.

The rest, I think will be held by incumbents. TX Open might get close, but Cornyn will hold just enough of a lead, and he'll ride Perry's coattails.

+5 GOP in the Senate, possibly +6. But 2008 could be a pain, as we will have to defend 26 seats, and the Dems will only have 8 VERY entrenched seats to defend.

[hchutch]

I can see the logic in that.

Of course, the GOP could have another weapon:
The week before the election, Bush does appearances on the Limbaugh, Hannity, and Stern radio shows.

The first two fire up the base, the latter outflanks the Dems big time. George Pataki will happily attest to the efficacy of appearing on the last of the shows I mentioned.

[Coop]

The Pubbie in IL is Durkin, but I've marked my calendar.

Harkin and Durbin are both struggling to break 50% as incumbents with just over 4 months to go. Not a good sign in my book. And I think Allard could beat Strickland by more. Other than that I pretty much agree with your predictions. A lot of things have to go right for the Dems, in an off-Presidential year, to hang onto the Senate. They can do it, of course, but...

[yendu bwam]

This would be a very smart strategy. Good idea!

[Coop]

That's an interesting tack. I just don't know that it would be all that effective. The Dems would immediately counter with "the rich white boys are spending all their money to attack us."

In the end the perception is really planted by the media, not the issue ads. IMHO

[yendu bwam]

I'm New Jerseyan. Torricelli is a lamentable sleazebag, liar and opportunist. He disgraces the US Senate.

[hchutch]

The question is, will enough things go right for them?

Bush is not making mistakes, and the House GOP is following right behind him. That means he gets margins to work with there, and Tom DeLay will keep running a tight ship.

The question is the Senate. Will Lott be replaced after the 2002 races?

[Coop]

Oops. Small technicality, but I forgot to mention that if Sununu/Smith beats Shaheen in NH then that seat will not be changing hands.

[Coop]

Will Lott be replaced after the 2002 races?

We can only hope! But on Roll Call (I think) a day or two ago there was a senior Pubbie (anonymous, of course) that said Nickles in the end wouldn't challenge Lott because he couldn't beat him. [sob] Let's hope that's not true.