Posted on 06/25/2002 6:29:07 AM PDT by maui_hawaii
Edited on 04/29/2004 2:00:46 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
HONG KONG, China (CNN) -- President Jiang Zemin will be dispensing what pundits call 'steady-the-heartbeat' pills when he comes to Hong Kong on Sunday to mark the fifth anniversary of city's reversion to Chinese rule.
In what could be his last official visit to the Special Administrative Region (SAR), Jiang, 75, will try to reassure its people that the motherland will do whatever it takes to boost the sagging local economy.
(Excerpt) Read more at asia.cnn.com ...
Economically, the look should be much moreso outside of China than in...at the VERY least a balanced effort is required...balanced meaning 98% elsewhere, and 2% in China...
Our IT sector in the US is going about making (another) bubble pyramid scheme this time in China.
Economically, the look should be much moreso outside of China than in...at the VERY least a balanced effort is required...balanced meaning 98% elsewhere, and 2% in China...
Currently, Taiwan's exports to China account for 23 per cent of its overall exports, compared with 21 per cent to the US.
Taiwan knows that it is a threat to their national security to become too dependent on China. For years, Taiwan has limited the flow of investment into China. Many compaines ignored the direct investment limitations in the past by investment through Hong Kong. Those barriers are being lifted as Taiwan's economy continues to sputter. Now, 1 million Taiwanese live on the mainland.
Taiwan is trying to establish a free-trade zone between the island, The United States, and Japan. This would make Taiwan's economy less reliant on China. The Chinese communist government has strongly warned the US and Japan against such a free-trade zone saying it would be a violation of the "one-china" policy.
Isn't it interesting that President Bush has a plan for a democratic Palestinian state within 3 years, but officially opposes a Taiwanese state?
Taiwan has never been communist, has one of the largest economies in the world, and has a constitution modeled after the United States. It seems like Taiwan is the Rodney Dangerfield of countries. They get no respect.
So you think you are samrter than those successful Taiwanese business people? Sounds like you care more about THEIR profit-making than they themselves do.
As of myself being involved in this before, let me add my .02
Taiwan might export things 'to China', but those exports are part of the globalization effort. Let me explain...Taiwan makes all kinds of electronics and gadgets of all sorts...
To compete, everyone is outsourcing the less profitable sources of their manufacturing...which means going to China. The profitable portions of the supply chain are kept at home...
A little known fact is that Taiwan owns somewhere around 70% of all mainland Chinese electronics manufacturers. In other words, Taiwan is supplying things to their own (or other US) overseas investments. In a way, they are a 'servicing sattelite' if you will...
Just because its exported to China, does not mean it is consumed in the end in China...in a way, a lot of the things are 'en route'...
The whole thing is a supply chain thing... and it can be very complex. Just narrowing it down and saying 'they exported that to China' doesn't really say that much. Its not so simple...
My main point is that narrowing it down to just Taiwan-China does not tell the whole story at all..
If the world started to manufacture in Vietnam or India, then Taiwan could service those areas too with almost the same dynamic...
Those markets are 'international markets' not purely 'Chinese markets' though. I am making that distinction.
It might be happening on Chinese soil (due to some comparative advantages: cheap labor), but in the end, its internationally driven...
Taiwan is merely adapting to the environment.
The international community is flexing its muscles and pouring cash into China...
Because of this, in order to be part of the supply chain, Taiwan has to be part of the curve, or in front of it.
Its cheaper to make them in China, so they do so...
Now, in their quest to make the operation work properly, they hire 20 consultants from Taiwan...who then fly to Shanghai to show their special expertise...
In the end, the operation was financed by America, and the goods in the end purchased by America, but the actual consulting took place on Chinese soil...
Would it be 100% accurate to call that 'an export to China'?
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my reply from another thread...
...far this is the only thing left undone in my book...[trade with China, ie the huge deficit]... I have advocated again and again, and it won't hurt our corporations at all to do it...and here it is... Engage, and create a rival manufacturing center to counter China's dominance. You don't have to tax Chinese stuff nearly as much as you have to give incentives to go somewhere else... Just imagine if there was a 'special economic zone' on the south east tip of India...maybe including Sri Lanka... If you import from there, tax cut... or some other kind of equalizer... We can negotiate with the Indians, and get all kinds of goodies for US corporations... And in the end, it will force prices of imports down not up. China only gives what it has to give, and nothing more. Competition will change all that. Where that competition comes from is where the discussion of possibilities should take place... When China starts to blackball our corporations [or starts to bully people, Europe, Taiwan, whoever] for doing things the party doesn't like...the corporations will have the option to say sianara... Beijing realizes there is becoming an real dependence on their cheap labor... and they use it as a baseball bat. Make the global economy global... not an all China manufacturing party in Asia...Japan, the US, Taiwan, Korea, and whoever will have options...
Also if I am not mistaken, I think it was Bush who first proposed the Taiwan/Singapore free trade.
I certainly hope it gets the attention it deserves...
There are extensive political motives behind whats been going on...
What book?
By the way, I agree with your comments about China. The "Chinese market" has never been very big even though they have 1.3 billion people. Chinese imports and exports are skewed upward whenever a company ships components to China for assembly to be re-exported into the international market. I have heard somewhere that you can only count on a Chinese market of about 150 - 200 million people
Also, much of the real manufacturing inside China is from Taiwanese, Japanese, European, and American companies. It would still count as a Chinese export even though Canon or Taiwan Semiconductor Corp. exported it.
All this is not really a new phenomena. The only thing that is new is that China is sucking up most of the new direct investment of the Asia Pacific rim. Wealthy and poor countries in the region are fearful of China's economic successes. For the United States, we have the extra challenge of China being communist and determined to gain regional superority over the United States.
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