Posted on 06/25/2002 6:11:41 AM PDT by maui_hawaii
TAIPEI, June 24
There is much ado about Taiwan investing in China. That is much more about globalization than it is about liking Beijing.
I disagree.
China's military option is to destroy all the airbases with missiles. This is vital since China knows they cannot match Taiwan head-to-head in the air. Although China has recently been purchasing more modern aircraft from Russia, Taiwanese pilots get 50% more flight hours training.
The Taiwanese navy is a joke. Two Dutch submarines are the only sea worthy subs. The two American subs are so old they are only used for training. The recently purchases of destroyers and submarines would help defend the island before Chinese troops arrived.
The 400,000 force is not really ready for battle. Because of the "one-China" policy of many countries including the United States, Taiwan's armed forces do not train with other countries. One noteable exception is with Singapore. It is believed that President Bush is addressing this weakness. The recent 1 1/2 month long training exercises by Taiwanese forces was organized by the United States.
Taiwan's land forces has been the backbone of Taiwan's military. Stop China after they land on the island. China must be able to overwhelm Taiwan's forces quickly to achieve victory. They only way to do that is to delay US participation in the war long enough to take the island. I believe much of the military hardware China has purchases (submarines, destroyers, etc.) is for the Chinese military to keep the US away, not to have the ships used in the actual invasion.
This guy does not know what he is talking about.
There won't be any "conventional conflict."
CCP won't invade Taiwan directly with forces, use missles to knock out power plants and that's the END.
All of Taiwan's investment in China become ZERO and this alone can bring down Taiwan in no time.
How many of those 400,000 soliders are willing to die for Taiwan's independence? DPP only has < 40% of votes.
I agree 100%.
Whats more is China hopes that its 'economic allure' is going to cause Taiwan to kowtow to the CCP, which simply ain't gonna happen.
Like I said in the other thread, the part of the Chinese economy that really matters is the international part. Thats where the investment money is going, and where spending is taking place...
Once again, I want to call a distinction between the international driven market and the domestic driven market... while they merge into some grey areas in some places.. the domestic markets are nothing to brag about.
As far as the Navy goes, China also wants to be able to fully blockade Taiwan. They want to be able to put them on their knees by cutting off their oil and trade.
That is but just one reason why they are so opposed to free trade with Taiwan. It will put US interests squarely in conflict with the Chinese willingness for a blockade...
The mainland's been asking for direct trade links with Taiwan for years. It's Taiwan that's always opposed this for fear of becoming too economically dependent on the mainland, which is inevitable anyway. Essentially, by opposing direct links, Taiwan has "blockaded" itself and helped spur capital flight out of Taiwan.
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