Posted on 06/24/2002 5:50:00 AM PDT by mikegi
The last time the world heard from Osama bin Laden, there was reason to believe his end was near. In a videotape released in December, bin Laden looked sallow; his speech was slow, and his left arm immobile. (The Arab newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi reported last month that bin Laden was nursing a shrapnel wound when he made the tape.) The U.S intercepted chatter in the Tora Bora mountains between bin Laden and his forces that seemed to give up his location. Pakistani forces bottled up the border while American warplanes pounded the caves of eastern Afghanistan and special-ops troops positioned themselves for the big grab. "He doesn't have a lot of good options," said Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz.
[more at link]
I still think that bin Laden corpse is rotting, in many separate pieces, somewhere in Tora Bora. It takes no effort to make a simple video tape and release it. The lack of an irrefutably recent video pretty much seals the case for me that binnie is in Hell.
For example, bin Laden could make one tape praising a dirty bomb attack in August, on New York City. Then another praising it in September. A third praising a suicide bombing in Washington D.C. And so forth. A guy could make tons of such videos in a few days. I'm not saying that this is happening, only that it is not that complicated or impractical. It's like the TV show with three alternate endings, with the 'real' one selected at the last minute.
I'm reminded of the doctor who always correctly predicted the sex of a baby. Here's how he did it: He made a guess, told the parents his guess, and wrote the opposite sex in the medical file of the mother-to-be. When he was correct, the parents were amazed. When he was wrong, they called him on it, and he showed them what he had written in the log, and claimed that they remembered his guess incorrectly.
First, as you point out, we haven't seen bin Laden on tape for months. The last video (which was released in March) appeared to have been shot sometime late last year. Osamma didn't look hale and hearty in that video, either. He was evidently nursing a wound, feeling the effects of kidney disease, or both. He had the look of a man who was seriously ill and spending much of his spare time trying to avoid U.S. SOF and those dreaded laser-guided bombs that kept showing up at his hideouts.
The other reason I tend to agree with you is the reported disposition of bin Laden's senior bodyguards. According to press and intel reports over the past two weeks, several of bin Laden's long-time bodyguards have been sighted simultaneously, in different countries, well away from Afghanistan. These bodyguards are long-time bin Laden associates; as one intel analyst put it, the only way these guys would leave his side is if bin Laden were dead.
Finally, given bin Laden's colossal ego, you've got to believe that we would, at some point, want to appear on camera and announce his survival to the world. Instead, we've got a "spokesman," on audio tape, hinting that Osama is in good health (how many times have we heard that) and will appear soon. Sorry, but it doesn't take a lot of effort to carry a camcorder to a cave and videotape bin Laden. His prolonged absence on video is a telling sign that Osamma is dead, or getting close.
Unfortunately, Al Qaeda can sustain this charade for quite a while; there are enough dupes in the Arab world (and the western press) to buy this story. In fact, in absence of conclusive forensic evidence that he's dead, bin Laden seems ready to take his place in the "is he really dead" pantheon, alongside Elvis.
On a more ominious note, bin Laden's absence puts more pressure on Al Qaeada to mount another major attack, demonstrating their continued viability--with or without Osamma in command.
I wouldn't assume that Bin Laden's absence puts pressure on AQ to mount another major attack. I'm beginning to think that there isn't an Al Qaeda, per se. Seem to me that it is/was a loose association of independent terrorists with Bin Laden as the money man. Previously, I thought Al Qaeda was Bin Laden's "army" with a plan to conquer us. If he has a plan, it's too devious and clever for me to figure out! For instance, there was no follow through on the 9-11 attacks, etc. when he had maximum advantage. Now, another AQ attack would fall into the nuisance category, rather than as a threat to our integrity as a world power.
I see Bin Laden as Ted Bundy but with a religious/political perversion instead of a sexual one. Plus a bunch of money to make his perversions into reality.
Our real enemy is Iran. They are the "root cause" of global terrorism.
Disagree with your assessment on Al Qaeda. There was--still is--an Al Qaeda, and it's more than a loose confederation of terrorists, with bin Laden as the banker. Osamma was very much the man in charge; he determined the organization's priorities and approved operations, with help from a cluster of trusted aids.
What we're seeing now is the reconstitution phase of Al Qaeda. I don't think most folks appreciate how hard we hit bin Laden last fall. His organization was shocked by the swiftness of our response, the quick toppling of their host Taliban regime. Our military campaign put Al Qaeda on the run.
And, despite what Senator Kerry says, Operation Annoconda was a second setback for the bad guys. Someone had the bright idea of trying to regroup and attack us. Bad move. U.S. and Allied SOF made a lot of bin Laden's boys pay for that mistake.
After enduring these defeats, what's left of Al Qaeda is trying to come back together and launch new attacks. There is still a central leadership core (probably based in a Pakistani city) that running a reconstitution program. Once they believe they have sufficiently regrouped, they will try to attack. If current indications are correct, the reconstitution phase is nearing completion, and the window is open for a new attack. The size/scope of the next "major" attack will tell us a lot about what kind of shape Al Qaeda is in...
Excellent analysis, sir! I must say that I too believe that bin Laden is being consumed by carrion as we speak. I believe his next video will be some unseen stuff that hasn't gotten out before but that dates from before Tora Bora. On or about July 4th.
Bin Laden's ego is towering indeed, as befits a megalomaniac whose belief in his own effect on world history is certain. That bin Laden has come out with nothing since December strikes me as extremely odd: his toadies have been saying that he's still alive. I don't believe it. Show me the money.
What remains of the High Command of AQ has an interest in keeping bin Laden in "Elvis" status. Remember, Al Qaeda is like a Mob outfit. When the Don dies, there is a struggle for power, which is usually all about a struggle for money. The top consiglieri may have convinced some of the other top commanders that if a peace is made among them, then each might have equal access to what really counts, bin Laden's money and his front businesses.
Be Seeing You,
Chris
Be Seeing You,
Chris
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.