Suddenly, Pataki's seat is not so safe [A wild card conservative enters the NYS gov race]

The Chicago Sun Times ^ | June 20, 2002 | Robert Novack

[summer]

Suddenly, Pataki's seat is not so safe

June 20, 2002

BY ROBERT NOVAK SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST

NEW YORK--Amid the uncertainties of election politics, one 2002 outcome had seemed assured. Republican George Pataki surely would be elected to a third term as governor of New York against either of two flawed Democratic challengers. Yet, the political community now is not so sure because of a newly introduced wild card.

The wild card is B. Thomas Golisano, a Rochester, N.Y., billionaire making his third independent run for governor. Since his previous campaigns were ineffective, what reason is there to take him seriously this time? There are 75 reasons. Golisano has promised to spend $75 million of personal funds--much more than ever before for him and equal to what Michael Bloomberg spent to become mayor of New York City.

Furthermore, under guidance of veteran Republican political operative Roger Stone, Golisano for the first time plans to campaign as a conservative. That was not envisioned as Pataki's shrewdly conceived strategy moved him steadily leftward the last two years. Having made himself indistinguishable from Democrats while neutralizing any threat from the Conservative Party, Pataki now faces a well-financed threat from the right.

One prominent Democratic politician, requesting anonymity, told me the bitter struggle for his party's nomination between State Controller H. Carl McCall and former U.S. Housing Secretary Andrew Cuomo has so alienated him that he plans to vote for the liberalized Pataki. If such a Democrat is defecting, isn't Pataki home-free? ''Not necessarily,'' he replied. ''Golisano is the wild card.''

Prior to the Golisano threat, Pataki seemed guaranteed to survive the Republican Party's ruin in New York. The widening Democratic statewide advantage over Republicans in registered voters has reached 2 million. The former GOP suburban hegemony is gone. As Hillary Clinton showed in 2000, the economically ravaged upstate has become happy hunting grounds for Democrats. With Republican presidential candidates dropping below 40 percent in the last two elections, Pataki was his party's only candidate elected statewide during the three elections between 1996 and 2000.

Pataki, an obscure protege of then Sen. Alfonse D'Amato, defeated Gov. Mario Cuomo's bid for a fourth term to become the first conservative elected governor of New York since Nathan Miller in 1920. Since his liberal shuffle following the 1998 re-election, he has raced leftward on issues from the environment to gay rights and allied himself with left-wing service employees leader Dennis Rivera (costing the state $850 million in higher pay for health care workers).

The Rivera coup left McCall, Cuomo and conservative voters all sputtering. The New York Conservative Party was formed in 1962 to deny votes--and perhaps election--to just such apostate Republicans as Pataki. At the party's recent 40th anniversary dinner in Manhattan, founding father William F. Buckley gently called attention to the governor's left deviationism, but Pataki was tight with Conservative State Chairman Mike Long and won the party's endorsement.

Just when Pataki thought he had all bases covered, Tom Golisano--invisible since his last failed run--reappeared, with Roger Stone at his side. Golisano impressed nobody in his previous two campaigns as a non-ideological cut-rate version of Ross Perot. He won only 8 percent of the 1998 vote, but in that limited, disorganized campaign drew a mere $13 million from his personal fortune. Golisano, whose payroll-processing company actually prospered the last four years, is worth $5.5 billion and can afford the $75 million he has promised.

It figures to be spent more competently than in 1998. Stone is a professional who worked in the presidential campaigns of Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Jack Kemp. Golisano is being re-invented as pro-life (moderately), pro-gun, pro-Vieques and very conservative fiscally. While he is barred from the Conservative Party primary and may well lose to Pataki the primary of the Independence Party (which he founded), Golisano will have his own party line on the November ballot.

Stone has not always been so tough on aberrant Republicans (running liberal Sen. Arlen Specter's 1996 presidential campaign). This looks personal. Stone, lobbying for Donald Trump, ran television ads attacking the governor in a casino dispute. The state lobbying commission fined Stone $100,000, a response Pataki may regret if Tom Golisano deprives him of a third term as governor.

[summer]

Interesting development...

[snag_matic]

I'd love to be so rich to be able to flush $75 million down the toilet.

Speeking of third parties, They are going to be Bush's doom in 2004 if he doesn't stop moving to the left.

[summer]

Speeking of third parties, They are going to be Bush's doom in 2004 if he doesn't stop moving to the left.

Who do you think would run against GW and take conservative votes? I don't know... But, I expect Nader to run again. Or someone from the Green Party, giving the Dems another major headache...

[summer]

FYI.

[snag_matic]

I'll bet there is alot of Wealthy businessmen with money to burn like this guy who'd love to be a spoiler in 2004. How many people heard of Ross Perot before he ran in 1992?

[GunsareOK]

It would be great if he funded conservative causes and candidates around the country the way Ted Tur(d)ner and George Soros do with liberal causes.

[Donna Lee Nardo]

I really would be surprised if Golisano fared exceedingly better than he has in past election tries. He has no "Rudy" to campaign for him to upseat Pataki, no matter how much money Golisano spends. Even though some of us are upset with Pataki on certain issues, is it enough to make us vote for a third party candidate? My hunch is no....hopefully.

[summer]

Good points.

[Right_in_Virginia]

"Speeking of third parties, They are going to be Bush's doom in 2004 if he doesn't stop moving to the left."

Hope not. Bush's doom in 2004 seals ours.

[summer]

I think a lot depends on what is happening Upstate right now. Any economic recovery there? If not, Pataki could lose votes from that region. I suspect those voters continue to be fed up.

[summer]

Well, I just read a Dem site where posters were estatic to see all the talk here about GW. They are hoping conservatives abandon GW and stay home in 2004.

[Right_in_Virginia]

I really hope those dreadful, evil eight years of the Clinton administration are enough to remind my friends here of the real consequences of voting for a Ross Perot or staying home to teach someone a lesson.

I hope we fight the urge to repeat the tantrum that gave us the travesty of January 21, 1993.

Just MHO :^)

[goldstategop]

If he has no chance of winning you're right. But what wouldn't we give to fire a warning shot at a RINO like George Pataki and tell him we're watching you. Which would be a good thing considering he wants to pander to illegal aliens and other gooey gooey stuff I can't stand.

[summer]

I think GW has done fine in his first year as president.

Let's see, he had to start out dealing with an election scenario unlike any in memory; then we were attacked as a nation unlike any previous attack in history; and this all happened in his first year on the job. Most people would have had a nervous breakdown already. I give him a lot of credit for providing capable leadership for our nation at this point in time.

Yes, maybe there are decisions he should have made differently on some matters, but, he truly has the weight of the world on his shoulders here. How about people helping him out? Especially his so-called supporters..

[summer]

Also, I think he is doing fine now, in his 2nd year. I also believe Laura Bush has been an outstanding First Lady and role model for our country, and I do not find the Dem attempts to parody her to be amusing at all, despite the fact I have a sense of humor. They bomb big-time when they attempt to make fun of her. And, when they complain about GW during this unprecedented time in history, I am very reluctant to truly listen if they can not offer any better idea. And, thus far, they never do offer any better idea. So, I say: give GW a chance.

And, BTW, his brother, Jeb, is doing an outstanding job as governor. If GW and his supporters intend to win it in 2004, he certainly can, thanks in large part to FL voters.

[summer]

PS I agree with you about the need for GW to do more to tighten up the borders and stop this incoming flow of illegal aliens / potential terrorists.

But, let me ask you this: has any Dem leader stepped forward and said this is a priority for the Dem Party? I've been listening for that -- and there's only silence.

[summer]

I meant: If GW and his supporters intend to win it in 2004, they...

[itsahoot]

has any Dem leader stepped forward and said this is a priority for
the Dem Party? I've been listening for that -- and there's only silence.

This is not the issue, GW has called for the legalization of all, or
most current illegals.

[Fracas]

When the press begins to pay attention to the fact his campaign is being run by Roger Stone, this foray will be dead-in-the-water. The focus will be Stone rather than the candidate.

[summer]

Well, I don't want any terrorists currently hiding out in
this country to become "legal" citizens, that's for sure.