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Iraq Attack Why an October surprise is likely
National Review Online ^ | June 19, 2002 | Joel Mowbray

Posted on 06/19/2002 7:54:14 AM PDT by Semper Paratus

The much-publicized administration split over the fate of a possible Iraq invasion has given way to adoption of the hawks' timetable and message by President George W. Bush, meaning an October surprise could be in the offing.

The nation's capital has been buzzing with Iraq speculation following the Washington Post article over the weekend stating that Bush had signed an order earlier this year for the Central Intelligence Agency to use lethal force, if necessary, to effect "regime change" in Iraq.

Although the story, which many administration officials believe was leaked by CIA Director George Tenet, may have been intended to show that military action won't be needed until winter (since the CIA is "on the case"), it actually underscores the president's firm commitment to ridding the world of Saddam Hussein's tyranny. The only direction from there is an attack on Iraq sooner, not later. --Continued


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: iraq
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Good news is the hawks have won against the wusses.
Not that it was in doubt.
1 posted on 06/19/2002 7:54:14 AM PDT by Semper Paratus
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To: Semper Paratus
October surprise is likely

I'd have to say it's pretty unlikely (that it will be a surprise), now that they mention a specific MONTH. This reminds me of the stupid CheapTickets.com popup window which brags that it's the best kept secret in travel. Not any more!

2 posted on 06/19/2002 7:59:27 AM PDT by TrappedInLiberalHell
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To: TrappedInLiberalHell
I'm betting on Sept.6, new moon.
3 posted on 06/19/2002 8:00:57 AM PDT by Semper Paratus
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To: TrappedInLiberalHell
One never knows. I hope W keeps em guessing.
4 posted on 06/19/2002 8:01:37 AM PDT by Lauratealeaf
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To: Semper Paratus
...the Washington Post article over the weekend stating that Bush had signed an order earlier this year for the Central Intelligence Agency to use lethal force, if necessary, to effect "regime change" in Iraq.

The U.S. cannot be totally sure things would change just by assassinating Saddam. Probably one of his psycho sons would take his place. A "regime change" is no good if it's just as hostile as the last. Invade Iraq and replace it with a "friendly regime".

5 posted on 06/19/2002 8:05:34 AM PDT by demlosers
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To: TrappedInLiberalHell
Tactical surprise is still quite possible. The only question remaining is if Saddam will try to pre-empt us with a strike. If he did it would be in the form of a missile attack on Israel or terrorist activity in the US.
6 posted on 06/19/2002 8:06:10 AM PDT by Arkie2
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To: demlosers
Invade Iraq and replace it with a "friendly regime".

At the very least take over the oil fields in the south and dictate terms.

7 posted on 06/19/2002 8:08:18 AM PDT by Semper Paratus
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To: Arkie2
Tactical surprise is still quite possible. The only question remaining is if Saddam will try to pre-empt us with a strike. If he did it would be in the form of a missile attack on Israel or terrorist activity in the US.

I've been wondering recently, if there is to be a World War III, what will be the equivalent of the assassination of Arch-Duke Franz Ferdinand, which is largely credited with precipitating WWI? Anybody out there have any ideas on a single incident that would cause a series of escalations that lead to another world war?

8 posted on 06/19/2002 8:10:30 AM PDT by TrappedInLiberalHell
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To: Semper Paratus
Although the story, which many administration officials believe was leaked by CIA Director George Tenet, may have been intended to show that military action won't be needed until winter...

I think it is time for Tenet to go. I have no idea why he has Bush's confidence.

9 posted on 06/19/2002 8:12:12 AM PDT by Wphile
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To: Semper Paratus
wishful thinking, but i am hoping for a 9/11 Godfather type of thing. the US has a big memorial service (michael's nephews baptism) while all of our enemies are systematically taken out (killing of the heads of the five familes). then we all go to vegas (same).
10 posted on 06/19/2002 8:14:49 AM PDT by housethatruthbuilt
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To: housethatruthbuilt
but i am hoping for a 9/11 Godfather type of thing.

Yeah, Arafat welcomes a peace activist carrying a violin case.

11 posted on 06/19/2002 8:16:51 AM PDT by Semper Paratus
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To: Semper Paratus
If it's in October, then it will be the perfect time for "Bomb-a-don", the new infidel holiday that occurs just before Ramadan.
12 posted on 06/19/2002 8:16:58 AM PDT by Tancred
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To: Semper Paratus
it actually underscores the president's firm commitment to ridding the world of Saddam Hussein's tyranny

So far the only thing GWB has been firmly committed to is the destruction of our Liberties.

No an increase in Security through a lessening of Liberty is not a Good Thing.

And no also to the idea that the "increase" is necessary.

13 posted on 06/19/2002 8:17:07 AM PDT by The Shootist
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To: Semper Paratus
The only direction from there is an attack on Iraq sooner, not later

Good.

14 posted on 06/19/2002 8:19:13 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: Semper Paratus
Another senior administration official says that the military campaign in Iraq will be one marked by stealth, "[because] the ability to act clandestinely is vitally important

Not if the never ending stream of articles like this one keep disclosing "stealth" attack plans.

15 posted on 06/19/2002 8:25:05 AM PDT by BOBTHENAILER
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To: Semper Paratus
My best guest: 4:30 a.m., 5 September, 2002. For symbolic reasons.

Yours in Christian Fraternity,

B-chan

16 posted on 06/19/2002 8:25:06 AM PDT by B-Chan
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To: TrappedInLiberalHell
911
17 posted on 06/19/2002 8:28:35 AM PDT by The Vast Right Wing
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To: TrappedInLiberalHell
equivalent of the assassination of Arch-Duke Franz Ferdinand,

Different world. In Ferdie's world there was no pre-eminent state. Many states were in the same league militarily and no state could assume that it would win or would lose a conflict. When 5 300 pound muscular men start tapping each other, a melee will likely ensue. When the 300 pounder in the group of 110s punches out one of the little guys, the others will decide to be nice or will try not to be noticed. If/when we stomp on Iraq, it is quite possible that further actions will take the form of giving our military assistance and direction to each country's newfound zeal for cleaning out its own terrorists, especially if we smack Kim Jong Il at the same time.

And it does not matter that KJI is behaving himself for the time being. That state of affairs will not be permanent and smacking him down when he is trying not to be noticed will be good "pour encourage les autres."

18 posted on 06/19/2002 8:30:01 AM PDT by arthurus
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To: BOBTHENAILER
Not if the never ending stream of articles like this one keep disclosing "stealth" attack plans.

I have believed for months that with all the "leaks" and statements about attacking Iraq that have been floated, an attack on Iraq may not be the most likely opening punch at all. We might just occupy Saudi Arabia. And the Saudis seem to think that might be a possibility, too. They seem to be immobilizing some of their AQs. Or we could blitz Pakistan. Those two countries have been just as dangerous and damaging to us as any other.

19 posted on 06/19/2002 8:38:49 AM PDT by arthurus
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To: Semper Paratus
I can just picture Daschole's squeals about the "politically motivated" attack. A person of normal intelligence would have learned by now that this is a counterproductive strategy, but Tiny Tom just can't think of anything else to try.
20 posted on 06/19/2002 8:46:10 AM PDT by steve-b
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