Posted on 06/17/2002 6:45:02 PM PDT by Kermit
Experts ponder why unmanned vehicle was there at all
WASHINGTON - There are red herrings and crossed wires a-plenty when it comes to the strange story about an American unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that appears to have been shot down on a surveillance mission over Northwestern Iran. Apparently the UAV was overflying Iranian facilities suspected of manufacturing weapons of mass destruction. Two in particular -- the Mo'allem Kalaych plant, which allegedly houses gas centrifuges used to enrich uranium for bombs, and Qazvin, a chemical weapons plant -- have been attracting Washington's attention. The curious thing is, keeping on eye on these places is traditionally done by satellites. Why was a low-flying UAV employed to perform real-time surveillance?
Several explanations have been advanced. Stratfor, a private intelligence firm, believes it "may be a sign that the administration is preparing to evoke its emerging 'pre-emption' and 'defensive intervention' strategic doctrine and may be preparing to strike Iranian WMD facilities."
On the other hand, Stratfor hedges by saying "the story may revolve around Iraq." It may be that the UAV was actually overflying Iraqi installations and its signals were jammed, forcing it off course and into Iranian territory.
Iraqi State Radio claims Iraq's air defences seized control of a UAV "by our own means," an apparent reference to remote jamming. Then again, consider the source: Iraqi propaganda routinely claims to have inflicted fictitious defeats on the Americans. Baghdad may just be exploiting the situation.
Be that as it may, the loss of a first-rank UAV is ominous, especially if Iraq has developed jamming technology capable of hampering US intelligence-gathering missions.
The really curious thing is that Tehran has been so quiescent about the matter: there have no "Death to the Great Satan" marches, no parades showing off parts of the UAV wreckage, no crowing in the media.
Indeed, it was only late this week that an Iranian spokesman actually confirmed a crash had happened, but he insisted that the wreckage was strewn so far and wide that it was impossible to identify the UAV's owner.
Hmmm. According to sources cited by DEBKA, another private intelligence company, the Iranians are getting very uneasy about the increased attention they have been receiving since September.
Some in the leadership fear U.S. and/or Israeli military action against Tehran's military industrial facilities manufacturing weapons of mass destruction and its soon-to-be-completed nuclear reactor at Bushehr on the Gulf. Others believe that if the United States goes to war with Iraq, Iranian facilities will also be targeted in order to divest both countries of their dangerous and illegal weaponry.
But DEBKA also suggests another reason why Northwestern Iran is being overflown by real-time UAVs: as part of its attempt to sabotage Washington's military and political designs in Afghanistan, Tehran continues to provide an escape route to al- Qaeda fighters crossing in from Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In particular, there are numerous Kurdish veterans of al-Qaeda action in Afghanistan or Kashmir transferring through the passage into Northern Iraq, where Saddam Hussein has established a Quisling outfit named the "Kurdish National Battalion" to oppose the anti-Saddam Kurdish groups in the north, which operate under CIA and U.S. Special Forces supervision and training.
Some of these pro-Saddam Kurds are also thought to be advancing westwards past Iraq into Syria, where they are transferred to Lebanon to join Hezbollah, whose terrorists are gearing up for a guerrilla offensive against Northern Israel.
To cut a long story short, Northwestern Iran is the jumping-off point for anyone wanting to trace the day-by-day movements of al-Qaeda operatives leaving Afghanistan.
Hence the increased attention by low-flying, pilotless aircraft. Iran, for its part, might be keeping mum in order to sell high-tech parts of the crashed UAV to bidders like China, which would pay dearly for the privilege. On the other hand, it could be discussing terms with the United States.
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Cyprus is drafting a tax system that will meet the approval of the European Union but doom the offshore tax haven status that has made the island the favoured destination for Russian money-launderers (sometimes known as "legitimate businessmen").
Given that US$1-billion a month was running through the place, Cyprus has unsurprisingly become the third-biggest foreign investor in Russia. Sadly, owing to the selfishness of a bunch of crooks, this little Mediterranean heaven -- which has no withholding tax, no capital gains tax, no taxes on dividends and a rather un-Canadian 4.25% income tax rate -- will soon be turned into an offshore version of Brussels.
North Korea is armed to the teeth and I don't think Japan or S. Korea will be eager to see us strike the North.
Iraq is an easy target, but what good is our new strategy if Iran and North Korea have nukes and are off limits? Aren't they two thirds of the axis of evil?
We start drilling in ANWR, (and send any protestors there to "enjoy" the pristine habitat) and when we are self sufficient within a year or two, cut off ALL foreign aid to the Middle East, as well as stop buying their sandy oil.
I'll put the over-under at two years before every goat-humping, camel-riding Abdul of the desert has killed each other in the blame game over their then non-existent economy and inability to afford imported foods they have come to love, but can't grow, and can no longer afford.
Yes, we should drill, but should we take our oil out of the ground when we can buy it so cheaply from other countries? Find it and maybe cap it off until needed.
Drill in ANWR, and anywhere else we have to so as to become self sufficient. Then we tell the Arab jerks to go to Allah, and stop sending them our dollars to spend on radicals to terrorize us with.
Without our foreign aid dollars, or money for their oil, the whole region will collapse in record time. THEN we cap our wells, and start buying REALLY cheap oil from the new administrations that take over from the terrorists, and, just happen to be U.S. friendly.
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