I agree with this diagnosis. 9-11 will be the catalyst for the ascendancy of the reformers, just as it has already catalyzed the barring of the doors in Europe. Bottom line: you don't tug Superman's cape and live.
I hope I am wrong, but IMHO Islam itself precludes the introspection and critical thinking required for it to reform. Furthermore the exchange of ideas, freely expressed, is not something you see much of from Muslim countries. To be successful, change must come from within Islam; this change cannot be forced upon it from outside. For the above reasons Islam cannot change, therefore it is stuck in an endless cycle of failure and despair.
I repeat, I hope I am wrong, because the picture is not very pretty.