McBride cuts into Reno lead, but Bush still front-runner [New poll: 33% of FL Dems prefer JEB!]

The Mason Dixon Poll site ^ | June 13, 2002 | Mark Silva

[summer]

Say hello to FL's current
and future gov: Jeb Bush.

McBride cuts into Reno lead, but Bush still front-runner -- by Mark Silva, The Orlando Sentinel

June 13, 2002

TALLAHASSEE -- A once-unknown Democrat, Bill McBride of Tampa, has gained ground against Janet Reno, the well-known former U.S. attorney general, in the contest for their party's nomination for governor, a new statewide survey shows.

Yet, five months from Election Day, neither Reno nor McBride poses a serious threat to Republican Gov. Jeb Bush, maintaining an unshaken 22-percentage-point lead over Reno since January in surveys of likely voters.

Reno, strongest in the Democratic stronghold of her home South Florida and backed by core party voters, still appears most likely to win her party's nomination on Sept. 10, according to the latest poll conducted for the Orlando Sentinel and WESH, NewsChannel 2.

But her inability to weaken Bush -- and McBride's solid gain among Democratic voters -- could provide the Tampa-area lawyer a springboard. As McBride approaches a summer of TV advertising, Democrats display growing doubts about Reno's prospects.

"He has to sell himself to Democrats as one, someone who can win, and two, somebody who can do better than the governor," said pollster Brad Coker, whose firm, Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, conducted the survey June 7-11.

"McBride's numbers against Bush don't look any better, but he is somewhat of a clean slate," Coker said. "If he beats Reno in the primary and gets a boost out of that, he could turn into a formidable challenger. Florida's history has proven that a Democrat who paints himself in a centrist mode, a la Bob Graham, can win."

Bush, vying to become the first Republican governor re-elected in Florida, displays strength among key voters.

In dangerous measures for Democrats, Bush is favored over Reno among women -- 49 percent to 41 percent -- and among voters 65 and older -- 53 percent to 37 percent. Outside of South Florida, he leads statewide, though he is strongest in North and Central Florida.

'No lead is secure'

While Bush has maintained his lead over Reno, the governor also holds a 26-point lead over McBride.

After six months of turmoil -- a rough session with the Republican-run Legislature and lingering controversy over the state's handling of foster children -- the governor maintains the same level of personal popularity he enjoyed before his election in 1998.

And he is campaigning like an underdog.

"I'm a relatively young 49 years old," the governor said Wednesday. "But in political years -- like dog years -- I'm about 800 years old, and I've been involved in enough races supporting my father, my brother or myself or people I admire to know that no lead is secure and you have to run really hard, and I intend to do that."

His mother, Barbara Bush, will campaign for him at a breakfast in Orlando on Friday. His brother, the president, will return to Florida on June 28 -- his 10th visit since his inauguration -- for a state Republican Party fund-raising dinner in Orlando.

The key to Bush's re-election lies not only in his support among Republicans, but also in his apparent support among nearly one-third of the Democrats surveyed. Among voters who act independently of parties and often decide Florida's elections, Bush also claims a majority.

Reno suggests Bush should be more popular than he is -- 54 percent of all voters holding a favorable impression of him -- after $2 million of recent statewide TV advertising in English and Spanish by the Republican Party of Florida.

"He doesn't seem like he's gotten a lot for the $2 million he's spent," Reno said as she campaigned Wednesday in the Panhandle.

Yet Reno, who held a 4-1 lead over McBride among Democrats in January, has watched this erode to a 2-1 lead in June.

"I was real worried whether we are catching on at all," McBride said Wednesday. "We're obviously catching on."

Reno declined comment on McBride's gains. But her campaign manager, Mo Elleithee, suggested that Reno has maintained solid support among core Democratic voters.

"What the poll numbers show me is that Janet's commanding lead among primary voters appears to be solid," Elleithee said. "It's going to be hard to overcome."

Reno in good shape

If momentum is with McBride, time is on Reno's side.

With the primary less than 90 days away, Reno, a native Miamian, still holds a strong lead among Democratic voters: 53 percent favoring Reno, 25 percent McBride and 19 percent undecided.

The third major Democratic contender, state Sen. Daryl Jones of Miami, is favored among just 3 percent.

The survey of 625 registered voters statewide carries a possible 4 percentage points margin of error. Additional Democrats were surveyed on the primary matchup. Those results, based on a total of 406 registered Democrats, have a possible 5 percentage point margin of error.

Experts say the new survey suggests that McBride is attracting Democrats who question Reno's electability.

An attorney who lives near Tampa, McBride ran Florida's largest law firm, Holland & Knight, before resigning last summer to run for governor.

At 57, this is his first bid for public office. He will campaign today at an annual American Legion "Boys' State" convention, which elected him "governor" as a high school senior from Leesburg 40 years ago.

Once a political unknown, McBride's name now is recognized by a majority of voters -- 59 percent. He also has outpaced Reno in campaign fund-raising, but McBride said the latest survey suggests he doesn't need to rush into a series of name-building -- and costly -- TV ads.

Unlike Reno, McBride has made few enemies -- 7 percent of all voters regard him unfavorably. More voters hold an unfavorable impression of Reno, 36 percent, than those who see her favorably, 32 percent -- a balance identical to what Mason-Dixon found last summer.

This troubling factor lingers after a 15-day state-circling tour that Reno made in a red pickup truck aimed at softening public opinion about the controversial former attorney general.

"She comes into the race with a high-profile public career," Coker said. "It's hard to change opinions among people. There doesn't seem to be much prospect for change, because she has so much baggage."

[summer]

How's the FL race going for Gov. Bush? Well, I think the most important two sentences in this article are right here:

In dangerous measures for Democrats, Bush is favored over Reno among women -- 49 percent to 41 percent -- and among voters 65 and older -- 53 percent to 37 percent. Outside of South Florida, he leads statewide, though he is strongest in North and Central Florida.

The key to Bush's re-election lies not only in his support among Republicans, but also in his apparent support among nearly one-third of the Democrats surveyed. Among voters who act independently of parties and often decide Florida's elections, Bush also claims a majority.

BTW, more info about this poll was published online in today's Ft Myers News-Press:

The independent Mason-Dixon Poll ….Director Brad Coker said ….

Pollsters interviewed 625 residents statewide who vote regularly in Florida elections, from June 7 to 11. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

The poll also showed that 67 percent of voters think Gov. Jeb Bush is committed to education, and 53 percent say he has made improving education a high priority....

"The reviews on his education program are mixed, but he does get credit for trying," Coker said.

Bush campaign spokesman Todd Harris [said] the 41 percent who say education long term will improve is significant.

"The Democrats are trying to get the public to believe that Jeb Bush has not improved public schools," he said. "What the poll shows is that the public doesn't buy this." ...

[summer]

For index.

[summer]

FYI. :)

[Cicero]

A fair number of Democrats would vote for a dead dog on the party line. So it's significant that, after all the political heartburn in Florida, one third of Democrats would vote for Bush. If you put aside blacks and Jewish retirees from New York, who presumably will go down with the ship regardless, the percentage is probably much higher.

[summer]

Black and Jewish FL Voters may surprise everyone this time around - about 60% of blacks strongly support vouchers, which Reno and McBride would eliminate immediately. And, Jeb has some strong and growing Jewish support in FL. I think it's going to be a huge landslide for Gov. Bush, no matter who is the Dem nominee. We'll see! :)

[summer]

Cicero, BTW, Frances Marion and I really love this recent photo:


Gov. Jeb Bush in Miami, meeting with 19 Orthodox rabbis from around the state.

BTW, Gov. Bush has always been a very vocal supporter of Israel -- and many Jewish leaders in FL know this.

As FL gov, he has visited Israel on a trade mission, increasing trade between FL and Israel; and, he has met with Israeli leaders. In fact, back in 1998, the editors of a Jewish magazine endorsed Jeb. So, I think more FL Jewish Dem voters may be voting GOP this November....

[summer]

PS Delete that 2nd "BTW" above! :)

[floriduh voter]

Friends, as you may know, I get McLawyer and Reno's supporter email. I couldn't bear to look at McBride's today because his are so poorly written. Reno's supporter email is relevant to this thread because it appears that Janet shaved Jeb's poll numbers and lied to her supporters via email.

She put Jeb in the fifties and COMPARED his poll numbers to his brother's. That makes no sense whatsoever.

Janet Reno is lying again to her own supporters! LOL Thought you'd want to know. And, I think that Reno believes Martin Sheen is the real president. FV

[kinganamort]

rock on... jebbump

[summer]

bttt

[Ragtime Cowgirl]

Janet Reno is lying again to her own supporters! LOL Thought you'd want to know. And, I think that Reno believes Martin Sheen is the real president.

shhhhhhh. (^:

Are you two staying dry? No flooding here in Lee, yet, but thunder's (yikes!) getting close. I'm off...(^:

[floriduh voter]

Janet forgot to tell her supporters via email that Jeb's approval rating for education was in the 60s and about 33% of Florida dems preferring Jeb. And, she failed to mention McLawyer at all.

Jeb is the front runner because he's the only one running who is qualified for the job and I agree with Jeb, I am also 800 years old in dog years. He is very wise. Janet apparently hasn't realized this because she's chilling with Martin and Rosie, whose magazine is tanking.

[summer]

I'll bet she also forgot to mention that two groups of key voters are supporting Gov Bush: (1) women; and (2) the elderly. How the Dem Party expects to win any FL election without these two groups of voters is a mystery...

[floriduh voter]

It never, ever rains any more in Tampa Bay, at least by me. I listen to my thunderstorm CD because I miss those huge lightening bolts and the pounding rain. If I could blame the dems for the lack of rain, I certainly would...

[summer]

What rain?! :)

[floriduh voter]

She didn't write about herself at all. Just a little Jeb bashing before the weekend.

[floriduh voter]

This would make a nice button but I already made up a Spongebob Squarepants pin. He's running, holding a Jeb sign of my bumper sticker that I shrunk. Got it laser copied. This Bushbot is from Joe Brower.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

I'll bet she also forgot to mention that two groups of key voters are supporting Gov Bush: (1) women; and (2) the elderly.

The way things are moving, the next group to be in Bush's corner will be Democrats. LOL! (Just joshing, I have more political experience then that! Many of the Miami Dems will be voting Dem years after they pass away!)

[timydnuc]

The amazing thing about this race is that Reno has as much support as she/he does. Jeb is a good looking young man with a beautiful family. He drips Republican party politics, and he IS a leader. Against a bulldyke, former enabler of a corrupt administration with a disease, and a person that lies with every breath, what do you think you would get? It's a "given".

[Sungirl]

I hope he wins by a landslide.