Posted on 05/30/2002 10:38:02 AM PDT by lyonesse
WASHINGTON: American diplomacy in the sub-continent has moved into high-gear amid reports – denied by Washington – that the United States is drawing up contingency plans to evacuate nearly 65,000 Americans from the region.
As reported in these columns last week, US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is also leaving for the region, closely following Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's visit next. The Rumsfeld mission was announced by Bush after a cabinet meeting, following which the US President once again reminded Musharraf of his committments, thus making it clear where the onus for de-escalation lay.
"He must stop the incursions across the Line of Control. He must do so. He said he would do so. We and others are making it clear to him that he must live up to his word," Bush said.
The sequential choreographed visits by Armitage and Rumsfeld, first to Pakistan and then to India, is aimed at delivering a stern warning to Pakistan to fully and demonstrably commit itself against terrorism and to convery these assurances to India and ask New Delhi to de-escalate, sources said.
USA Today and some television stations reported that State Department officials and personnel from the military's Pacific Command are already in India to discuss the plans. US officials denied any specific moves for immediate evacuation, but acknowledged that all embassies drew up contingency plans.
US civilians are all almost entirely in India, most Americans having long fled Pakistan because of the fear of terrorism. However, reports here said the evacuation plans also involve withdrawing more than 1000 US army and special forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The emergency plans are said to follow remarks by India’s External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh that the presence of US troops in the region “is not an inhibiting factor” in India responding militarily to Pakistani infiltration and terrorism.
A US evacuation of such magnitude would dwarf the American exit from Vietnam. Ironically, the record for the largest civilian evacuation over a distance belongs to India, which airlifted some 170,000 Indian nationals from Kuwait during the 1990 Gulf War.
Some US officials discounted the doomsday scenario amid reports that despite his war rhetoric, General Musharraf had given explicit commitments to the British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw that he would dismantle terrorist camps within a week, before the visit to the region of US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage.
Amid frenetic diplomatic moves, Pakistani officials – disregarding US advice to forsake rhetoric – ratcheted the tensions some more by proclaiming Islamabad’s low threshold for using nuclear weapons in a conflict with India.
Munir Akram, Pakistan’s newly appointed envoy to the United Nations, told reporters in New York that as a weaker conventional power, it was within Pakistan’s rights to use the nuclear means to deter an Indian attack. An “economic strangulation” of Pakistan could also compel Islamabad to use nuclear weapons, he said.
The Pakistani argument before the UN and the world community is that India should not have the license to kill with conventional weapons “while Pakistan's hands are tied regarding other means to defend itself."
Indian officials responded by saying Pakistan cannot practice terrorism under the cover of nuclear weapons. Islamabad’s position, they argued, was presumptive. The immediate reality is that Pakistan is already waging a proxy war under nuclear cover.
While an evacuation of US military from the region would derail the American hunt for al-Qaeda and Taliban elements, there have been suggestions from some quarters that since the US campaign was in any case withering without success, Washington may well be letting India get a handle on its terrorism problem.
Pakistan’s action of withdrawing its troops from the Afghan front, where it purported to be helping US special forces hunt down al-Qaeda, may also have prompted Washington to consider packing up from the region, allowing the two antagonists to go for a bareknuckle scrap that many analysts fear could involve nuclear weapons.
The situation has become even more complicated with US intelligence reports of links between the al-Qaeda terrorists and the Kashmiri extremists. US analysts are now convinced that the al-Qaeda and Taliban elements have hooked up with the Kashmiri militants to ratchet up pressure on India and provoke a war between India and Pakistan so that the U.S is forced to call of its hunt in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The convergence of al-Qaeda and Kashmiri militants has led to US analysts proposing dramatic new measures in the region. One former US official has suggested that Washington should itself now get militarily involved in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir because of the possible presence of Taliban and al-Qaeda elements there.
“If their presence can be confirmed, we and our allies should ask Mr. Musharraf's permission to attack, and make clear that we will not take "no" for an answer," says Jed Babbin, a former Deputy Undersecretary for Defence.
"At the same time, we have to make India understand that it will not be allowed to take advantage of our intervention to conquer all of Kashmir… If we're doing the shooting, India and Pakistan may stop long enough for real peace talks to begin,” Babbin wrote in The Washington Times.
Ummm well I HOPE THEY ARE DRAWING UP PLANS? Why deny something like this? Surely they have plans to get the Americans out...if not then they are fools (and I know that is not the case) so...they are lying
Don said that they have plans in place for these types of events at all times, he also, and more interestingly, said that if there was to be a evacuation that should not signal that a war was inevitable.
But I don't think there will be a war. India had their chance earlier in the year, but caved in to pressure from the International Community.
It's just a lot of rhetoric and postering thats going on now, India is trying to frighten the world into taking notice of the region so that pressure will be put on Musharraf to make movements regarding Kashmir.
This will all be forgotten about in a week or two, I've been following events very closely since Dec 2001 and I doubt very very much if there will any major conflict anytime soon.
Scary! Sounds like the statement that Arafat must stop the sucide bombings. Although this arafat has nukes.
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