Bush s Offer to Jointly Develop Missile Defense System with Russia Unwise

In the wake of the recent signing of a sweeping new nuclear arms disarmament treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russian President Putin has reportedly accepted President Bush’s invitation to join the US in the cooperative development of a new US missile defense system. Mr. Bush had issued this invitation for the same reason he accepted Putin’s demand to sign a nuclear arms disarmament treaty, which he had initially resisted and the Pentagon opposed. That reason was to appease Russia following Bush’s laudable decision, announced last December, to withdraw from the ABM Treaty. This represents yet another in a series of major US concessions designed to reward President Putin for his timely and vital military assistance to the Russian and Iranian-backed Northern Alliance, without which the US could not have won such a quick military victory against the Taleban in Afghanistan. The recently finalized agreement for de-facto Russian membership in the NATO alliance is another major concession to Mr. Putin.

Mr. Bush and Mr. Putin have reportedly agreed to set up a new joint committee on missile defense. The Russians pushed for language limiting the scope of the planned US missile defense system in the recently signed arms control treaty. However, President Bush persuaded them to accept this language in a separate ‘strategic framework’ document, which accompanied the treaty. This language is reportedly a reiteration of Bush’s previous assurances to the Russians that the planned missile defense system will be of a limited nature and will not be effective or capable of defending the US from a hypothetical attack by Russian nuclear missiles.

Historically, Russia has been vehement in its opposition to a US deployment of national missile defenses. However, President Putin opted to lessen Russian opposition to them in exchange for major concessions by the US listed above. Last year, the Russians proposed using Russian S-300, S-400 and yet-to-be-developed S-500 ABMs to provide a joint ‘theater’ missile defense system to defend Europe from ballistic missile attack from rogue states. This was primarily a Russian attempt to divide the US from its European allies and solidify European opposition to US NMD, a bid which was ultimately unsuccessful. The Russians now hope to win a few contracts from the Americans in the multi-billion dollar scheme to defend the US from ballistic missile attack. While the US would be sure to benefit from the acquisition of Russian technology, which is unparalled in the area of missile defense, it is unclear whether the Russians could serve as trusted partners in a bid to help design, build and deploy a US missile defense system aimed at enhancing US national security. Joint development of such a system with Russia would enable Russia to be fully appraised regarding its vulnerabilities and what countermeasures it could best employ to defeat and neutralize it using a wide variety of asymmetric means.

However, one important fact remains off limits to discussion by US and Russian negotiators. That is the fact that the Russians already have deployed a vast and potent missile defense system to defend their country consisting of thousands of the very S-300 ABM-capable missiles, which Putin offered to jointly field with Europe to defend them against long-range ballistic missile attack. In 1997, William T. Lee, a retired senior CIA and DIA analyst, reported on the existence of a massive Russian national ABM system in his authoritative work, The ABM Treaty Charade: A Study in Elite Illusion and Delusion. Many of Lee’s assertions are corroborated by the leftwing Center for Defense Information’s Russian Federation Nuclear Arsenal website, which states that the Russians built 10,000 SA-10 (S-300 series) ABMs with a limited capability to shoot down strategic missiles and warheads. Mr. Lee says that the Russians have a total of 8500 of these missiles deployed to defend their country today all of which are linked together via a battlefield management system in Moscow and phased array radars deployed throughout Russia. The CDI website also states that the Russians deployed 1750 nuclear armed S-300 SAM/ABMs variants, which Mr. Lee identifies as being equipped with neutron warheads.

Following full implementation of planned Bush nuclear disarmament measures mandated by the new treaty, these dual purpose SAM/ABMs could presumably shoot down whatever part of our strategic nuclear deterrent would survive a hypothetical Russian nuclear first strike, effectively depriving the US of its ability to deter a Russian nuclear attack. Mr. Lee has stated that the Russian overall offensive nuclear and strategic defensive advantage over the US actually multiplies even if both the US and Russian offensive nuclear arsenals were to be downsized. This is because the reductions in US warheads mandated by the treaty would greatly reduce the number of target warheads that Russian ABMs would need to shoot down in the event of nuclear war between the US and Russia. Mr. Lee’s writings confirm that the Bush Administration’s planned dismantlement of the bulk of the US nuclear deterrent would leave the US dangerously vulnerable to such a disabling Russian nuclear first strike. Russian inclusion in joint development of the new US missile defense system will only serve to create a further potential vulnerability for the US.

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David T. Pyne, Esq. is a national security expert who works as an International Programs Manager in the Department of the Army responsible for the countries of the former Soviet Union and the Middle East among others. He is also a licensed attorney and former Army Reserve Officer. In addition, he holds an MA in National Security Studies from Georgetown University. Mr. Pyne currently serves as Executive Vice President of the Virginia Republican Assembly. He is also a member of the Center for Emerging National Security Affairs based in Washington, D.C. Mr. Pyne serves as a columnist for American-Partisan.com and OpinioNet.com and as a regular contributor for Patriotist.com. His articles have also appeared on Etherzone.com.

While the US would be sure to benefit from the acquisition of Russian technology, which is unparalled in the area of missile defense, it is unclear whether the Russians could serve as trusted partners in a bid to help design, build and deploy a US missile defense system aimed at enhancing US national security. Joint development of such a system with Russia would enable Russia to be fully appraised regarding its vulnerabilities and what countermeasures it could best employ to defeat and neutralize it using a wide variety of asymmetric means.

This is a very scary and disturbing development. If the Russians help design and develop our missile defenses, they will, in all likelihood, be able to counteract and neutralize it in the event they decide to launch a nuclear first strike or limited nuclear attack against us.

This is a very scary and disturbing development. If the Russians help design and develop our missile defenses, they will, in all likelihood, be able to counteract and neutralize it in the event they decide to launch a nuclear first strike or limited nuclear attack against us.

This is a good idea whose time is past due, IMHO.

I disagree. President Reagan wanted to do this way back - build a missle defense system and share the technology with Russia. The thought being that if each side could defend against the other's attack, there would be no point in attack capability. I'm sure after we had worked together to get a basic system working, our people could tweak it to negate outside knowledge of its operation (adding security layers). This is a good idea whose time is past due, IMHO.

Actually, it was a very bad idea when Reagan proposed it and it remains an equally bad idea as it has been proposed by Bush today. Reagan offered to share SDI technology in the mid-1980s at the times when the Soviets remained overt enemies to us--that was perhaps more dangerously naive and self-defeating then it is now with President Bush offering to jointly develop a missile defense system with a authoritarian KGB-led Russia which is purported to be our newest NATO ally. Although with the latest Bush proposal, the Russians might actually contribute some of their technology, by doing so they will be much better able to defeat any limited missile defenses which we deploy and perhaps even prevent them from working at all. This is a danger that the Reagan proposal did not include since the Reagan proposal was based exclusively on US technology.

The fact is that the Russians have the best NMD technology in the world which they have deployed in the form of a national missile defense system consisting of 8500 SA-10 ABMs as the author notes here. The Russians today can shoot down about 2000 incoming warheads, whereas the US lacks the capability to shoot down even one strategic warhead. The Russian nuclear arsenal is as much as five times larger than that of the US, which has downsized to a mere 8000 total nukes under President George W. Bush. By 2012, it could be as much as ten times larger if the planned Bush evisceration of our strategic nuclear deterrent is implemented as required by the newly concluded Treaty of Moscow.

The Russians pushed for language limiting the scope of the planned US missile defense system in the recently signed arms control treaty. However, President Bush persuaded them to accept this language in a separate ‘strategic framework’ document, which accompanied the treaty. This language is reportedly a reiteration of Bush’s previous assurances to the Russians that the planned missile defense system will be of a limited nature and will not be effective or capable of defending the US from a hypothetical attack by Russian nuclear missiles.

As noted by the author, Bush has signed an agreement with the Russians that his planned missile defense system will be too limited in size and scope to defend against a Russian nuclear attack on the US. I anticipate that Bush will deploy a missile defense system consisting of only a few hundred ABM interceptors much too weak to counter Russian missiles. In contrast, the current Russian NMD system ability to ensure that any US nuclear attack is completely shot down will be much increased by this treaty so once again we have a President, who like Jimmy Carter did in 1977, is locking in continued Russian offensive nuclear and strategic defensive superiority well into the forseeable future. The most likely result will be the demise of the US as a nuclear superpower and our replacement as global hegemon by a newly empowered Sino-Russian alliance whose relative military power vis a vis the US will be much increased by this agreement.

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